Sunday, October 18, brings a 12-game slate for Week 6, including seven contests in the 1:00 p.m. ET slot. Five of the seven matchups have spreads of 3.5 points or less, including the Chicago Bears favored by 1.5 points on the road against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bears are 2-1 over their last three despite starting backup quarters, and starting QB Caleb Williams returns to the lineup from a hamstring injury today. Since QB Michael Penix Jr. made his season debut in Week 3, the Falcons are 2-1 while averaging 34.3 points per game.
Let’s break down perhaps the best game of the 1:00 p.m. ET slate, featuring our Bears vs. Falcons prediction and player picks on PrizePicks.
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Bears vs. Falcons Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 18
Last week, the Bears were -1.5 favorites but lost 31-7 vs. the Packers. As 1.5-point favorites for the spread today, Chicago is hoping to redeem that in another road game in the NFC.
Here are the full payouts for the Bears vs. Falcons on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Bears vs. Falcons prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.
The main storyline surrounding this matchup is QB Caleb Williams returning from injury. When he suffered the hamstring setback in Week 2, it didn’t look good, with Chicago’s starter being carted from the sidelines.
He managed to dodge injured reserve with a torn hamstring, practiced in full this week, and now Williams returns at a much-needed time considering Week 5’s 31-7 loss vs. the Packers. Before injury, he had 0.318 adjusted EPA per play (sixth) and a 50.0% success rate (10th), via RBSDM.
Chicago cannot afford another 7-point showing with 3.6 yards per play like last week, as the defense has multiple injuries: LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) out, CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip) questionable, and CB Kyler Gordon (calf) questionable.
Furthermore, Bears EDGE Montez Sweat begins his two-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Performance-Enhancing Substances Policy. EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo also landed on injured reserve with a quadriceps injury this week.
After tallying 8.0 PPG in the first two games, the Falcons are up to 34.3 PPG in their last three contests, boasting 0.247 EPA per play (first) and a 52.4% success rate (first) in the split. QB Michael Penix Jr.’s 0.351 adjusted EPA per play sits second in the NFL since Week 3.
According to PrizePicks, the Bears have a 1.69x payout to qualify for the NFL Playoffs. Considering the Falcons’ 2.7x payout to qualify, a win today could bring a notable boost to Atlanta’s postseason hopes.
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Bears vs. Falcons Prediction on Over/Under – 10/18/26
The Bears have held teams to only 19.2 PPG (fifth), but that’s deceiving with Chicago yielding 6.2 yards per play (30th) and 0.000 EPA per play (20th). Chicago touts a 54% pass rush win rate (eighth), via ESPN, but now its pressure leaders in Dayo Odeyingbo (14) and Montez Sweat (13) are out, per Pro Football Focus.
With time in the pocket, Penix could expose a vulnerable Bears secondary that cedes 8.8 yards per passing attempt (31st). The Falcons carry a strong 53% pass block win rate (ninth).
Frankly, this Bears defense could be in trouble across the board, also giving up a 41.7% rush success rate (22nd). We don’t need to talk much about RB Bijan Robinson; he’s among the NFL’s elite with 116.0 rushing yards per game and 4.47 yards after contact per carry.
Caleb Williams’ return should help decrease Chicago’s 2.0 turnovers per game (28th), but his dropbacks may be limited. He’s coming off a torn hamstring, and the Bears already like to lean on the run with a 50.00% rush play rate (third) and 4.7 yards per carry (seventh).
The Falcons’ defense has improved by limiting teams to 5.0 yards per play (ninth) and a 39.7% success rate (third). However, the unit was just shredded for 208 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry in last week’s 30-23 overtime loss vs. the Ravens.
Before facing Baltimore, three of Atlanta’s first four opponents are currently in the bottom half of rush success rate. This rush defense could be exposed yet again vs. a quality Bears offense line — sporting a 74% run block win rate (11th) and 56% pass block win rate (fourth).
The over is 3-0 in the Falcons’ last three games. With Williams under center, the Bears posted 59 and 3 points in two games. Those 3 points were in a 9-3 loss vs. the Vikings in rainy, ugly Chicago weather.
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Bears vs. Falcons Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/18/26
Here are the top Bears vs. Falcons picks to target on Sunday, October 18. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include RB D’Andre Swift and QB Michael Penix Jr.
Bears RB D’Andre Swift vs. Falcons: 64.5 Rush Yards
- After not practicing this week, Bears RB Kyle Monangai (toe) is out for his second consecutive week. In Week 4, Monangai took 30 carries to D’Andre Swift’s 15 in a 23-12 win over the Jets.
- For now, this is likely back to Swift taking most of the touches. Last week, he had only 9 rushing attempts for 43 yards, but that was in a severe negative game script (31-7 loss).
- According to Pro Football Focus, Swift took 14 rush snaps compared to RB Roschon Johnson’s 6 in Week 5.
- Swift’s 15.5 projected rushing attempts further suggest a healthy volume on Sunday.
- Mostly in a split backfield this season, the veteran has still managed 70.8 rushing yards per game, anchored by a solid 4.5 yards per rushing attempt.
Pick D’Andre Swift + Bears to win on PrizePicks.
Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. vs. Bears: 236.5 Pass Yards
- Penix has surpassed this projection in two of three games and totals 239.7 passing yards per contest.
- Paired with his 0.351 adjusted EPA per play since Week 3 (second), Penix touts a 52.9% success rate (eighth) in the split.
- The Bears’ issues in the secondary could be even worse with injuries to their pass rush, and this unit allows an alarming 18.1% explosive rate in the pass game (third-worst), per FTN Fantasy.
- Chicago runs man coverage at a 38.4% clip (fifth-highest); that doesn’t blend well with a weak pass rush and injured cornerbacks.
- Penix has attempted only 6 passes of 20+ yards, but he’s been extremely effective by completing 5 for 200 passing yards, including 4 big-time throws via PFF.
- The cherry on top? Penix’s 0.565 EPA per dropback against man coverage is the fourth-best in the NFL.
Add Michael Penix Jr. to your PrizePicks lineup now!
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Make Bears vs. Falcons Picks on PrizePicks
Following last week’s blowout loss to the Packers, the Bears hope to get back on track with Caleb Williams returning from injury. However, concerns on defense against a rolling Falcons offense may require a high-scoring output from Chicago’s offense on Sunday afternoon.
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