The second-leg matches in the semifinals of the 2026 UEFA Champions League are on the horizon, and one of the featured matchups pits Arsenal against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Arsenal is heavily favored as the hosts, returning a 1.61x payout if they secure a victory.
Below, we’ll discuss our Arsenal vs. Atletico Champions League prediction and picks for Tuesday’s match at Emirates Stadium.
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Arsenal vs. Atletico Prediction, Picks for Champions League Semifinals – Tuesday, May 5
Ahead of Tuesday’s bout, both teams are level at 1-1 on aggregate. Both goals scored in the first leg were via penalty kicks, though the shortage of goals wasn’t due to a lack of trying — especially from the Atletico side.
Atletico produced 14 shots in the first-leg showdown, and 5 of them were on target. On the other hand, Arsenal attempted 8 shots, with only 2 on target.
Currently, Atletico Madrid still needs to qualify for the Champions League for next season, as they are currently in fourth place in La Liga with 5 fewer points than third-place Villareal and 10 more points than fifth-place Real Betis. Atletico can get an automatic bid by winning this year’s tournament.
As for Arsenal, they have their sights set on winning the Premier League and Champions League trophies. The Gunners are currently 3 points ahead of second-place Man City in the EPL table, though they’ve played one more game.
With PSG and Bayern Munich both flashing plenty of attacking firepower as the other two remaining teams in the Champions League, a prediction of “Yes” on Arsenal winning the UCL carries a 3.12x payout (third-worst), via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Atletico possesses the worst payout (7.69x) to win the Champions League among the remaining clubs.
Arsenal vs. Atletico Spread, Total Goals, Payouts – Tuesday, May 5
Arsenal enters Tuesday’s UCL semifinals match as home favorites, returning a 1.61x payout ($100 entry pays out $161) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
- Winner Payout: Atletico – 4.76x | Tie – 3.7x | Arsenal – 1.61x
- Spread: Arsenal -1.5 (2.63x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.88x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.88x | No 1.85x
Play the Arsenal vs. Atletico spread or total goals on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. Does not include extra time or penalties.
Arsenal vs. Atletico Prediction to Win for Champions League Semifinals – 5/5/26
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Arsenal vs. Atletico prediction on the winner for Tuesday, May 5. Check out more of our soccer picks and predictions on Playbook.
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- Arsenal remains unbeaten in the Champions League, logging a stellar 10-3-0 record entering Tuesday’s match.
- Despite Atletico advancing to the semifinals, they’ve lost both of their second-leg contests in the UCL. That includes a 3-2 defeat to Tottenham and, most recently, a 2-1 loss to Barcelona.
- Atletico Madrid has a 2-2-3 record on the road in the Champions League, compared to a 5-1-2 record at home.
- The Gunners have won four of their six home games in the UCL by at least 2 goals. That includes a 4-0 victory over Atletico in the league phase.
- While Atletico tallied more shots in the first-leg meeting, Arsenal is dominant defensively, ranking first in xG conceded (10.8), goals conceded per match (0.5), and clean sheets (8) in the UCL, per FotMob.
- Although Diego Simeone’s squads are typically strong on the defensive end of the pitch, Atletico is 34th in xG conceded (26.4) and 22nd in goals conceded per match (1.8) among the 36 teams that participated in the Champions League.
- Atletico leads the UCL in set-piece goals scored (10), but Arsenal is first in set-piece goals allowed (1).
Arsenal vs. Atletico Projected Lineups for Tuesday, May 5
Here are the projected Arsenal vs. Atletico lineups for today's Champions League match. Lineups are not official.
Arsenal Lineup vs. Atletico: Projected 4-3-3
- Goalkeeper: Bukayo Saka
- Defense: Piero Hincapie, Gabriel Magalhaesi, Ademola Lookman, Ben White
- Midfield: Martin Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard
- Forwards: Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyokeres, Bukayo Saka
Atletico Lineup vs. Arsenal: Projected 4-4-2
- Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak
- Defense: Matteo Ruggeri, David Hancko, Marc Pubill, Marcos Llorente
- Midfield: Ademola Lookman, Johnny Cardoso, Koke, Rodrigo Mendoza
- Forwards: Antoine Griezmann, Alexander Sorloth
Arsenal vs. Atletico Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/5/26
Here are two Arsenal vs. Atletico picks to target on players for Tuesday, May 5. Player picks via PrizePicks are headlined by F Bukayo Saka and MF Ademola Lookman.
Arsenal F Bukayo Saka vs. Atletico
Bukayo Saka Projections via PrizePicks: 1.5 Shots (Goblin), 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 0.5 Goal + Assist (Demon)
- Bukayo Saka has produced at least 5 shots in four of his six Champions League starts.
- With Saka playing only 46 minutes in Arsenal’s EPL match on Saturday, he could be fully fit for Tuesday’s match. Saka logged 2 shots, 1 goal, and 1 assist in those minutes.
- Saka has tallied 1 or more shots on target in five of his six UCL starts.
- Even though Saka has just 4 goals + assists in the Champions League this year, he leads Arsenal in xG + xA per 90 (0.61) in the Premier League.
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Atletico MF Ademola Lookman vs. Arsenal
Ademola Lookman Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Shots (Goblin), 1.5 Shots on Target (Demon), 0.5 Goal + Assist (Demon)
- Ademola Lookman has taken at least 1 shot in all 14 of his UCL appearances this season, including 4 shots in back-to-back starts.
- Additionally, Lookman has posted 1 or more shots on target in eight of his last 11 Champions League outings. He had 2 shots on target in the first leg.
- Lookman has the third-most xG + xA per 90 (0.71) on Atletico’s roster in the UCL.
- Throughout the Champions League competition, Lookman has 6 goals + assists. Of those 6 goal contributions, 4 occurred on the road.
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Both Arsenal and Atletico Madrid need to turn up the aggressiveness to another level to earn a spot in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final. Will Atletico hand Arsenal their first UCL loss of the campaign, or will the Gunners remain unbeaten?
You can make your Arsenal vs. Atletico picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money on Champions League games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct.
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Stick around with the Playbook for continued Champions League predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
