After Wednesday’s 105-85 win vs. Texas, the Arkansas Razorbacks (22-8) have locked up a double bye in the SEC Tournament as they head to Columbia, Mo., to face the Missouri Tigers on Saturday, March 7.
Missouri (20-10) is fresh off the wrong side of a beatdown, losing at Oklahoma, 84-60, netting it a 4-way tie for fifth place in the SEC, with slim hopes of seizing the double-bye still in play.
Let’s look at our Arkansas vs. Missouri prediction and player picks for PrizePicks CBB for the regular-season SEC finale at Mizzou Arena, tipping off at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN to start off a loaded college basketball slate.
You can make your CBB picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks on every game and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and over/unders.
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Arkansas vs. Missouri Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Whether it be old Southwest Conference history or border-state beef, since Arkansas and Missouri began meeting twice a season for hoops starting in 2013, there always seems to be some renewed sense of rivalry.
Over the last 10 meetings, Arkansas holds a 8-2 head-to-head record, with both losses coming in Mizzou Arena.
Saturday's game pits two teams in the top half of the SEC against each other, which should make for a close game. The last time these two squads met, the Razorbacks were favored by 9.5. It started tight, but the Hogs took the lead before halftime and never looked back, ultimately winning, 94-86.
Arkansas vs. Missouri Spread, Over/Under for March 7, 2026
The Razorbacks enter this matchup as 1.5-point underdogs with the announcement that star freshman Darius Acuff will sit out out, returning a 1.92x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Tigers are home favorites with a 1.81x payout if they win, with a relatively high over/under set at 162.5.
- Spread: Missouri -1.5
- Over/Under: 162.5
- Game Winner Payout: Arkansas 1.92x | Missouri 1.81x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Arkansas vs. Missouri Prediction on Spread – 3/7/26
Here are some key stats to know before locking in your Arkansas vs. Missouri prediction on the spread for Saturday, March 7, on PrizePicks.
- The Tigers have knocked off three teams ranking in the top 15 on KenPom at home — Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, proving the moment isn’t too big with the crowd backing them.
- The Razorbacks shoot an SEC best 50.3% from the field, and give up a 45.3% on the defensive end, vs. the Tigers comparable 49.1% shooting but a far better 43.2% allowed.
- Missouri is a flawless 4-0 against the spread (ATS) this season as home underdogs.
- The Razorbacks are a flawless 4-0 ATS this season as away favorites.
- Road wins haven’t come easy, however, with the most notable away win for the Hogs coming against Oklahoma, who sit at a net ranking of 57, via KenPom.
- Arkansas ranks fifth in the nation with 9 turnovers per game, but ball security is an issue for Missouri, which turns the ball over more often than 253 teams, at 12.3 times a game.
- Thanks to having the double bye locked up, Acuff (22.2 PPG — ninth best in NCAA) will miss the game — the first of his college tenure, despite playing on a compromised ankle for much of the season.
Arkansas vs. Missouri Picks for PrizePicks CBB Today: 3/7/26
Here are three top Arkansas vs. Missouri college basketball picks to target on Saturday. The top PrizePicks CBB player picks are headlined by Arkansas G Billy Richmond, Arkansas F Trevon Brazile, and Missouri's Mark Mitchell.
Arkansas G Billy Richmond III vs. Missouri Projection: 18.5 Points
- With Arkansas’ leading scorer Acuff sidelined, the hyper-athletic wing Billy Richmond III will be the likely candidate for an increase in usage, especially to fill the mid-range game.
- In five of his last six games, "Billy Goat" has now scored 20+ points after failing to reach that mark previously in his college career.
- The former Kentucky commit that followed coach John Calipari to Arkansas has been incredibly efficient during his scoring outburst, shooting 58% from the field and knocking down 17-of-19 free throws.
- Richmond was his team's leading scorer in the first time these two matched up with 21 points, and Mizzou has allowed a player to hit 19+ points in eight of their last ten games.
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Arkansas F Trevon Brazile vs. Missouri Projection: 20.5 Pts + Rebs
- In his last home game, senior Trevon Brazile — a former Missouri Tiger — scored a team-high 28 points on 11 shots, coming down with 7 rebounds in the process.
- In his tilt against Missouri last month, Brazile finished with 17 points + rebounds, despite missing 5 threes and shooting 33.3% from the field.
- Despite the poor shooting game, Brazile did set his career high in assists in their prior game at 6, signaling the Tigers may not be as quick to collapse on him in the rematch.
- Brazile has been inconsistent on the road, shooting nearly 9% worse from 3-point range, and 19.8% worse on free throws.
Missouri G-F Mark Mitchell vs. Arkansas Projection: 24.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Arkansas has been dominated by opposing forwards this season, giving up points + rebounds + assists totals of 40, 32, 28, 31, 28, 29, and 25 to the position in just their last five games.
- In his last two outings, both on the road,Missouri Mitchell has finished below this projection, finishing with 22 PRA against both Mississippi St. and Oklahoma.
- Across the season, Mitchell has been noticeably more productive on his home court, averaging 27.3 PRA at home on more efficient shooting splits, compared to 24.9 PRA when away.
- The last time Mitchell faced the Hogs, just two weeks ago, he went off for a team-high in points (26), assists (8), and rebounds (4), good for a monstrous 38 PRA.
Make Arkansas vs. Missouri College Basketball Picks on PrizePicks
The final day of SEC play is upon us on Saturday, and the massive seeding implications for the SEC Tournament start with this early showdown.
An Arkansas win and a subsequent Alabama loss will have the Razorbacks slotted into the No. 2 seed in the SEC; otherwise, they'll be No. 3. Missouri’s fate has far more layers: a win and some help could get them a coveted double bye, but a loss and some unfavorable results elsewhere could slide them down to the No, 10 seed.
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