As the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament moves onto to the second weekend with just 16 teams left, trips to the Round of 8 are up for grabs on Thursday night.
A 9:45 p.m. ET game between No. 4 seed Arkansas and No. 1 seed Arizona sees two stylistically opposing programs go head-to-head on Thursday, March 16, on CBS.
This one could be a high-scoring affair, and PrizePicks Team Picks projections agree, with this showdown set at the second-highest over/under of the Round of 16 at 166.5 points. Arizona — one of the top remaining favorites in the tournament — is favored by 8.5 points.
Below, we’ll break down our Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction on the spread for Thursday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
New users on PrizePicks can get in on the 2026 NCAA Tournament with $50 in Lineups instantly after playing $5+ — win or lose! Just sign up with promo code PLAYBOOK and you’re good to go.
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Arkansas vs. Arizona Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament – Thursday, March 26
The Arkansas Razorbacks may have forgotten what it feels like to lose, rattling off seven straight wins in the month of March. The Arizona Wildcats, however, are far more familiar with winning, boasting an outstanding record of 34-2 this season, with both losses occurring back-to-back in mid-February.
The Razorbacks quality of opponents during their win streak raises some questions about how legit they are as a contender, with Vanderbilt being their only KenPom top-25 win in that span.
Meanwhile, Arizona has gone through the gauntlet during its 11-win streak. Through this streak the Wildcats avenged their Kansas loss in blowout fashion, bested No. 2 seed Houston twice, and beat No. 2 seed Iowa State at home and on a neutral court. That’s four wins over two teams that are still dancing.
All season long the Razorbacks — led by star freshmen guards Darius Acuff Jr. (23.3 PPG, 30.0 PPG in tournament) and Meleek Thomas (15.6 PPG, 20.0 PPG in tournament) — have maintained the same achilles heel: interior defense.
Arizona has an elite frontcourt featuring both far more size and depth when compared to the Hogs, specifically with 7-foot-2 center Motiejus Krivas (10.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG) down low alongside 6-foot-8 junior forward Koa Peat (13.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG).
The Cats best frontcourt SEC comparison for Arkansas is Florida, who hammered the Razorbacks’ bigs down low and rebounded an eye popping 48% of their misses on their way to blowing out the Hogs.
If Arkansas wants to pull off the upset, it will likely need to be via the aforementioned star guards putting on a show, but that’s something they're no stranger to — having just become the second freshmen duo to average 20+ PPG each in the first weekend of the tourney in the last 50 years, joining Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett.
Arkansas vs. Arizona Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament Round of 16
Arkansas enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament game as 8.5-point underdogs, returning a 3.84x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The region No. 1 seed Arizona is favored with a 1.25x payout if the Wildcats win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats -8.5 (2.04x payout)
- Over/Under: 166.5 (1.96x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Razorbacks 3.84x | Wildcats 1.25x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Arkansas vs. Arizona Prediction on Spread in NCAA Tournament Game – Thursday, March 26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction on spread for Thursday, March 26, NCAA Tournament game on PrizePicks.
- Arkansas is 7-5 against the spread as an underdog in 2025-26.
- Spending the bulk of their season as the favored team, Arizona sits 17-14-1 ATS.
- Arkansas head coach John Calipari loves himself a late tip time and being an underdog on a neutral court.
- The Razorbacks are 7-0 straight up this season when the game tips in the 9 p.m. hour.
- Calipari-coached teams have covered the spread in eight straight as the dog in the NCAAT.
- Under head coach Tommy Lloyd’s direction, Arizona has not survived the NCAA Tournament once through the Round of 16, having gone 0-3 all-time and falling to a worse seeded team in two of the three.
- Arkansas allows opponents to shoot 54% from 2 (275th in D1), and 63.8% around the rim via CBB Shot Charts. The Cats are far more stingy, allowing just 43.2% (second) from 2 and 50.6% around the rim.
- The Razorbacks take good shots and protect the ball, clocking in at fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency.
- Arizona is most poised to smother and slow down the Razorbacks, grading first overall in adjusted defensive efficiency per Bart Torvik.
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Make Arkansas vs. Arizona Picks on PrizePicks
While Arizona comes in as the favorite, Arkansas has the upper hand in some aspects of this NCAA Tournament game that could make this game interesting. Both teams come in hot, on late-season win streaks before advancing to Thursday night’s game.
Arkansas vs. Arizona picks for the Round of 16 NCAA tournament are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament action.
You can make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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