Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Wednesday, June 17

The Las Vegas Aces (10-4) vs. Phoenix Mercury (4-11) game is set to tip off at 10:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, June 17, televised by USA Network. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Aces enter as a 6.5-point favorite on the spread and return a 1.31x payout if they win.

For tonight’s Commissioner’s Cup clash, the Aces are tied with the Lynx with the top cup record in the Western Conference at 5-1. Meanwhile, the Mercury have struggled with a 2-4 record in Commissioner’s Cup play thus far.

Below, we'll break down our Aces vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Wednesday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks. 

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Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, June 17

Without surprise, the Aces are regarded as the far superior team compared to the Mercury. Las Vegas features one of the league’s most potent offenses, posting 90.2 points per game (third), while shooting a blistering 54.3% effective field goal percentage (second).

Phoenix lacks the same firepower by recording 82.2 PPG (10th), paired with a concerning 48.1 eFG% (12th). The issues extend to the defensive side by ceding 86.8 PPG (ninth) and a 53.8 eFG% (14th). That’s translated to a -5.3 net rating on the season (10th), per WNBA.com.

Despite the Aces boasting an 111.2 offensive rating (second), they carry only a 3.2 net rating (seventh). That’s likely influenced by a 108.0 defensive rating (10th) while surrendering 87.3 PPG (10th).

The two feature contrasting styles, as Las Vegas plays at the fifth-quickest pace compared to the Mercury’s third-slowest pace. How could this influence our Aces vs. Mercury prediction for today? 

Aces vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, June 17

The Aces enter Wednesday’s game as 6.5-point road favorites against the Mercury, returning a 1.31x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks. 

Here are the full payouts for the Aces vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Las Vegas Aces -6.5 (1.78x payout)
• Over/Under: 172.5 (2.04x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Aces 1.31x | Mercury 3.22x

Make your Aces vs. Mercury prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Aces vs. Mercury Injury Report for Wednesday, June 17

Let’s look at the full Aces vs. Mercury injury report for Wednesday’s matchup, via WNBA.com.

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

• G Chennedy Carter (illness): OUT
• G Jewell Loyd (illness): Questionable

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• None

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction on Spread – 6/17/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Aces vs. Mercury prediction on the spread for Wednesday, June 17’s game.

• Despite a 7-3 record in the last 10 games, the Aces are only 1-3 against the spread (ATS) over the previous four contests.
• Against Las Vegas’ firepower, including league-leading scorer C A’ja Wilson (25.6 PPG), Phoenix will likely look to slow the pace tonight.
• The Mercury carry a 76.6% defensive rebounding rate (fifth) that can help control the possession battle. That may also help limit the Aces’ 26.3% offensive rebounding rate (seventh).
• Anchored by Wilson, Las Vegas ranks third with 41.9 points in the paint per game. Despite the Mercury’s 108.7 defensive rating (11th), they do an outstanding job around the rim by holding opponents to 34.9 paint points per contest (fourth-fewest).
• The interior defense is anchored by Phoenix F Dewanna Bonner (103.9) and F Natasha Mack (102.1) each sporting solid defensive ratings.
• The Mercury just drained 13 of 35 3-point shots (37.1%) on June 13, and Las Vegas allows opponents to shoot 36.7% from deep (13th). 

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Aces vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 6/17/26

Here are the top Aces vs. Mercury picks to target on Wednesday, June 17. Tonight’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Chelsea Gray and Kahleah Copper.

Aces G Chelsea Gray vs. Mercury: 12.5 Points

• The Mercury defend the rim well, but that’s not the case from beyond the arc. In fact, they yield 26.6 3-point shots per game (13th).
• That’s dangerous against an Aces team that cashes in 37.0% of their looks from deep (second).
• Las Vegas G Chelsea Gray spearheads the attack with a team-high 5.4 3-point shots per game, shooting a lethal 44.0% on triples.
• Aces G Chennedy Carter and G Jewell Loyd could both be out tonight. According to Straight Bettin, Gray posts +0.5 points and +0.4 3-point shots per game when Carter and Loyd are off the court.
• While Gray comes off a 0-point outing, she recorded 23 and 29 points in the previous two games, putting her at 17.3 PPG over the last three contests.
• Monday’s underwhelming performance included 1 3-point attempt. That may not be an issue against Phoenix’s perimeter defense.

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Mercury G Kahleah Copper vs. Aces: 18.5 Points

• Mercury G Kahleah Copper comes off an absurd 41-point performance, setting a new career high.
• Before June 13’s outburst, Copper logged 14.0 PPG in the first four games of June.
• Phoenix’s star guard benefitted from the Sparks allowing 40.0 paint points per game (fifth-most). The Aces could be another favorable matchup, allowing 41.9 paint points per contest (third-most).
• Copper also got hot from deep in her 41-point eruption, converting 6 of 14 triples (42.9%).
• Despite shooting only 25.0% on 3-pointers this season, she’s now cashed in 38.9% of her 3-point attempts in June.
• The Aces yield 9.5 made treys per contest (second-most), giving Copper a chance to stay blazing hot from 3-point range.

Add Kahleah Copper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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The defending WNBA champions have been one of the league’s most dominant teams, but the Aces have shown cracks on defense. Backed by recent hot shooting, will the Mercury find success against Las Vegas on Wednesday night?

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