Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Thursday, September 24

The Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury game is set to tip off at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 24, televised on USA Network and CNBC. According to PrizePicks, the Aces enter as 9.5-point favorites on the spread and return a 1.2x payout if they win.

Las Vegas (30-13) still has an opportunity to grab the second playoff seed with a win and a Golden State loss to Los Angeles. The worst case for the Aces is finishing third overall, where they would face either Indiana or Washington in the opening round.

The Mercury (16-27) are one season removed from playing for the WNBA title but have been out of postseason contention for a while despite a 3-1 record down the stretch.

Below, we'll break down our Aces vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Thursday's WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Aces vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, September 24

It seems like a long time ago when these teams played in the WNBA Finals, although it was just last October that the Aces swept the Mercury to pick up their third championship in four seasons. 

Phoenix grabbed a bit of revenge in the season opener with a 99-66 blowout of Las Vegas as 10.5-point underdogs. However, the Aces captured the previous two meetings, including a 106-58 mauling of the Mercury in mid-July.

The Aces seek their seventh straight victory with all six of their previous wins coming by double digits. Since returning from the FIBA World Cup, Las Vegas is 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 22.6 points per game.

Head coach Becky Hammon’s squad hasn’t faced a playoff team since its last loss on August 18 against Atlanta.

The Mercury are finishing strong during this lost season. Phoenix held off playoff-bound Dallas 87-86 as 5.5-point underdogs on Monday, led by wing Kahleah Copper’s 31 points. It marked only the fourth win this season for Phoenix against a team headed to the postseason. 

Aces vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, September 24

The Aces enter Thursday’s game as 9.5-point home favorites against the Mercury. If Phoenix wins outright, it returns a 4.34x payout via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Aces vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.

Make your Aces vs. Mercury prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Aces vs. Mercury Injury Report for Thursday, September 24

Let’s dive into the full Aces vs. Mercury injury report for Thursday, September 24, via WNBA.com.

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

• No injuries reported

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• G Kelsey Plum (leg) - OUT

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction on Winner – 9/24/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Aces vs. Mercury prediction on the winner for Thursday, September 24.

• The Aces have covered the point spread in four of six games during this current hot streak.
• Las Vegas owns an incredible 8-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) mark against Phoenix since last season.
• The Mercury improved to 3-7 ATS as a home underdog following Monday’s win over Dallas.
• Phoenix is coming off his lowest turnover rate of the season against Dallas at 6.3%. The Aces rank ninth in defensive turnover rate at 16.9%.
• The Aces have knocked down at least 11 treys in each game since the World Cup break.
• The Mercury sit last in the league in 3-point defense at 35.9% after allowing 43% shooting to the Wings on Monday.

Lock in your Aces vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.

Aces vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/24/26

Here are the top Aces vs. Mercury picks to target on Thursday, September 24. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include A’ja Wilson and Kahleah Copper.

Aces C A’ja Wilson vs. Mercury: 29.5 Pts + Rebs

• Wilson is averaging 27.9 points in the last 15 road contests. 
• In the past two matchups with Phoenix, the four-time league MVP posted combined point and rebound outings of 43 and 36.
• According to PropsMadness.com, Wilson finished above this projection in 16 of 18 games against teams ranked ninth or lower in defensive rating (Phoenix is 10th).
• Wilson was held to fewer than 10 rebounds in six straight games before pulling down 10 boards in Tuesday’s win over the Sparks.

Add A’ja Wilson + Aces to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Mercury G-F Kalhleah Copper vs. Aces: 24.5 Points

• Copper compiled 31 points against Dallas on Monday, marking her third 30+ point performance in the last four games.
• She is averaging 24.9 PPG at home, compared to 18.0 PPG on the road.
• Copper has been held in check by the Aces this season, scoring 13 or fewer points twice. With that said, one outlier came in a 26-point effort in a 10-point loss to Las Vegas on June 17. 
• She sees a slight uptick in usage at home (30.3%), along with an effective field goal clip of 53.7% at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Add Kahleah Copper + Mercury to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Aces vs. Mercury Picks on PrizePicks

Las Vegas needs a win plus a Golden State loss to vault to the second seed in the WNBA playoffs. Can the Aces finish off the regular season with another win, or will the Mercury end their disappointing campaign on a positive note?

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Aces vs. Mercury picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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