We're more than a third of the way through the college football season, and the Heisman Trophy race is truly heating up.
We’ve seen some of the preseason favorite QBs, such as Oregon’s Dante Moore and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, fall down the board while others like Alabama's Keelon Russell and Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor are skyrocketing.
Meanwhile, Miami’s Darian Mensah and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr continue to dominate lesser opponents ahead of their November 7 showdown in South Bend.
This week contains a special treat, as Russell and #6 Alabama host Gunner Stockton and #2 Georgia in a battle of star signal-callers. How will Week 6 influence the race?
Below, we'll take a look at an updated Heisman watch, including a breakdown of the frontrunners for the 2026 Heisman Trophy and their projections on PrizePicks for this weekend.
Make your 2026 Heisman Trophy predictions on PrizePicks.
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2026 Heisman Watch: Russell, Arch Manning Among Top Candidates
Here are some top college football players and Heisman Trophy candidates to win the award, including their payouts via PrizePicks.
The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
Manning, Russell, Jeremiah Smith Lead 2026 Heisman Trophy Watch This Week
Here are our top three Heisman Trophy contenders with the 2026 season entering Week 6, with a pair of QBs starring on the list and being joined by perhaps the top WR in the country.
3. Texas QB Arch Manning
Heisman Trophy Winner Payout: 22.22x Yes | 1.01x No
Next game: vs. Oklahoma (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
We’ve been talking about Arch Manning as a Heisman candidate for a couple of years now. A month ago, he had a signature win vs. #1 Ohio State, which was needed to potentially hold that bronze statue in December.
Trailing 23-3 entering the fourth quarter vs. the Buckeyes and only having 113 passing yards and an INT up until that point, Manning put himself right back on the map with a final frame for the ages, completing 8 of 11 passes for 82 yards and a TD and rallying Texas to a 24-23 win with 21 unanswered points.
Manning followed that up with a win at #14 Tennessee, completing 73.7% of his passes for 201 yards. The junior has completed 63.5% of his overall tries for 862 yards, 7 TDs and 3 INTs through four games.
That stat line isn't as gaudy as some of the others, but he has arguably the best win of any Heisman contender on his résumé.
Manning and Texas are #1 in the country, but an SEC gauntlet awaits. After this weekend's Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma, Texas faces five straight top-25 opponents: Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, and LSU.
That gives Manning plenty more opportunities to showcase his Heisman talents, starting Saturday at the Cotton Bowl.
Arch Manning Projections vs. Oklahoma
Arch Manning’s projections are from the PrizePicks real-money game.
- 356.5 Pass Yards (Demon)
- 1.5 Pass TDs
- 25.5 Pass Completions
- 359.5 Pass + Rush Yards (Demon)
- 0.5 INT
- 43.5 Longest Completion
- 12.5 Longest Rush
Pick Arch Manning as the Heisman Trophy winner on PrizePicks!
2: Alabama QB Keelon Russell
Heisman Trophy Winner Payout: 6.66x Yes | 1.08x No
Next Game: vs. Georgia (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
You won’t find many people who had Russell on any Heisman lists coming into the 2026 season. The bigger question entering summer camp was whether the sophomore would even earn the starting job in a battle with senior Austin Mack.
Russell, who was 35:1 to win the Heisman even when the season started, is sixth in the nation in passing efficiency (185.66), fifth in yards per attempt (10.7), 11th in passing yards (1,414), and tied for 21st with 11 TD passes.
He leads an Alabama offense that ESPN ranks first nationally in overall efficiency and second in strength of record. The Tide are tied with the Miami Hurricanes for the second-highest scoring average at 49.6 PPG. Russell is now the second favorite to win the Heisman at PrizePicks, returning 6.66x if he wins.
After throwing 2 INTs in the first half at Kentucky in Week 2, he’s gone three consecutive games without one, completing 60 of 79 (75.9%) passes for 970 yards and 10 TDs. He's also 12-of-19 with 6 TDs and 0 INTs in the red zone, producing a 211.6 passer rating.
Now comes the biggest opportunity of his career. A big performance and win against the Bulldogs would give Russell something every Heisman contender eventually needs: a signature moment on one of the season's biggest stages.
Keelon Russell Projections vs. Georgia
Keelon Russell’s projections are from the PrizePicks real-money game.
- 235.5 Pass Yards
- 29.5 Rush Yards
- 0.5 Anytime TDs
- 1.5 Pass TDs
- 279.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- 0.5 INT
- 41.5 Longest Completion
- 13.5 Longest Rush
Pick Keelon Russell as the Heisman Trophy winner on PrizePicks!
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1. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith
Heisman Trophy Winner Payout: 1.96x Yes | 1.78x No
Next game: vs. Maryland (Saturday, 4:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Right now, the other Heisman candidates are trying to do what no college football defense has been able to do – chase down Jeremiah Smith. The Heisman favorite is leading the race for the FBS receiving triple crown with 823 yards, 44 receptions, and 9 TDs.
Smith is averaging 164.6 yards per game. At that pace, he'd break Trevor Insley's (Nevada) 27-year-old FBS record of 2,060 yards in his 13th game. He's combining huge volume and explosive-play efficiency, already recording 21 receptions of 15+ yards (first in 2026) and 8 of 25+ yards, per CFB Stats.
Beyond the raw numbers, it’s also important to consider who he is doing it against. Smith had 11 catches for 206 yards and 2 TDs vs. #14 Iowa last week, less than a month after going for 164 yards on 8 catches and a TD vs. #4 Texas. Iowa entered the game allowing only 152 passing YPG.
Thirty-five of his 44 receptions have produced first downs, meaning nearly four out of every five Smith catches move the chains or score.
The last WR to win the Heisman was Alabama’s DeVonta Smith in 2020. Through five games of his Heisman-winning season, he had one more catch (45-44), but Jeremiah has 267 more yards and 4 more TDs.
Jeremiah Smith Projections vs. Maryland
Jeremiah Smith’s projections are from the PrizePicks real-money game.
- 149.5 Rec Yards
- 8.5 Recs
- 0.5 Anytime TDs
- 42.5 Longest Rec
Pick Jeremiah Smith as the Heisman Trophy winner on PrizePicks!
Make Picks on Heisman Trophy Candidates on PrizePicks
Alabama vs. Georgia puts the spotlight on Russell this weekend, as does the Red River Rivalry game vs. Oklahoma for Manning. Can either QB do enough to unseat Smith as the Heisman favorite?
Make your Heisman Trophy picks with futures on PrizePicks. Just go to the PrizePicks app, open Team Picks, pick the player you think will win the Heisman, and earn cash if you're right on your pick.
With Team Picks, you can also make predictions on college football game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football picks, predictions, news, and more as the season continues.
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