The march to the 2026 College Football Playoff is underway, with the Big 12 — now a 16-team conference — hoping to play a major role in the 12-team tournament.
The 2024 season saw Arizona State’s surprising run to a first-round bye after winning the Big 12; in 2025, Texas Tech dominated the conference and landed in the Orange Bowl.
Will anyone challenge the Texas Tech Red Raiders for the Big 12 Championship this season? More importantly, can the Big 12 get more than one team into the Playoff?
Below, we’ll break down our Big 12 rankings for the 2026 college football season and analyze each team’s prospects for the upcoming college football season, along with PrizePicks' win total predictions for each team.
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2026 College Football Big 12 Power Rankings
Our full 2026 Big 12 power rankings contain a couple of teams that will contend for the College Football Playoff as well as squads that could be facing uphill battles this season.
Below, we'll break down each team and list each team's projected win total via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can pick college football winners, spreads, and futures for real money!
Big 12 Rankings for 2026 College Football
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- BYU Cougars
- Utah Utes
- Houston Cougars
- Kansas State Wildcats
- Arizona Wildcats
- TCU Horned Frogs
- Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Arizona State Sun Devils
- Cincinnati Bearcats
- Baylor Bears
- Kansas Jayhawks
- UCF Knights
- West Virginia Mountaineers
- Iowa State Cyclones
- Colorado Buffaloes
The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings on PrizePicks; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
1. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Projected Win Total: 11 (Yes: 1.51x | No 2.32x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Will Hammond, RB Cameron Dickey, RB J’Koby Williams, TE Terrance Carter Jr., LB Ben Roberts
Texas Tech jumped onto the national stage last year, going 12-1, winning the Big 12 and a spot in the CFP. However, they lost 23-0 to Oregon in the Orange Bowl, gaining only 215 total yards — not a great look for the Big 12
The offseason was filled with drama off the field as the Brendan Sorsby sports-betting fiasco played out in the courts and on social media, with the Red Raiders painted as the new evil empire. They ended up losing the Sorsby battle, and now turn to sophomore QB Will Hammond to attempt a repeat of last season.
Until the Oregon game, the offense was one of the best in the country, averaging 39 points and over 450 yards per game. Three starters from last year’s offensive line are back, and RB Cameron Dickey returns off his 1,124-yard, 14-TD season. The Red Raiders also return several players from the nation’s third-best defense.
They are still the top dog in the conference and don’t face BYU or Utah this season, making for a cakewalk schedule. A home game vs. 23rd-ranked Houston is currently the only ranked game on their schedule.
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2. BYU Cougars
Projected Win Total: 10 (Yes: 2x | No 1.63x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Bear Bachmeier, RB LJ Martin, WR Jaron Pula, LB Cade Uluave, S Faletau Satuala
BYU went undefeated last year — except for when they played Texas Tech. The Cougars won the rest of their games, including a 3-point win over rival Utah.
A win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game would have avenged their only regular-season loss and sent the Cougars to the CFP, which is where the conversation on this season begins.
QB Bear Bachmeier and RB LJ Martin are back, giving BYU one of the most productive backfield tandems in the country. Martin was the Big 12 leader in rushing, while Bachmeier threw for over 3,000 yards and 15 TDs, and added 11 on the ground in his freshman season.
The Cougars have an early test with a road game at TCU, then host No. 4 3Notre Dame and travel to in-state rival Utah. It’s a harder schedule than last year, which would bode well if they get to the point where the committee is involved.
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3. Utah Utes
Projected Win Total: 10 (Yes: 2.17x | No 1.53x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Devon Dampier, WR Ricky Johnson, WR Creed Whittemore, RB Daniel Bray
It’s a new era for the Utah Utes as there is no Kyle Whittingham on the sideline for the first time since 2004. Whittingham coached the Utes for 21 seasons before heading to Michigan and was replaced by Morgan Scalley, who coached the Utes to the Pop-Tarts Bowl win.
Scalley takes over a Utah team that went 11-2 last season, with the only losses to Texas Tech and BYU. QB Devon Dampier, MVP of the Pop-Tarts Bowl, returns after throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 24 TDs, with another 835 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. T
he biggest test will be replacing all five starters on the offensive line, including first-round pick Spencer Fano.
Arkansas will be an early test, as will the Big 12 opener at Iowa State. They don’t have to play Texas Tech and get ranked BYU and Houston at home.
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4. Houston Cougars
Projected Win Total: 9 (Yes: 1.88x | No 1.85x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Conner Weigman, WR Amare Thomas, Makhi Hughes, DE Ashton Porter
The Houston Cougars are coming off a 10-win season and return 12 starters, including QB Conner Weigman.
Under Weigman last year, the Cougars doubled their offensive output from the woeful 2024 season. He has one of the best WRs in the country returning in Amare Thomas, who was First Team All-Big 12 last season with 966 yards and 12 TDs.
The Cougars do have to play at Texas Tech and at Utah, but even a split of those two games could get them into the Big 12 title game, which would be the next big step for this program.
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5. Kansas State Wildcats
Projected Win Total: 9 (Yes: 2.12x | No 1.63x)
Top Players to Watch: DE Wendell Gregory, TE Linkon Cure, RB Joe Jackson, DE Jordan Allen, QB Avery Johnson
There was a lot of turnover in Manhattan this past year, starting with Collin Klein coming back to take over as head coach after a year in College Station.
Klein, who was the offensive coordinator at K-State for many years, needs to get more out of an offense that has playmakers but was held to 370 yards per game last season.
Veteran dual-threat QB Avery Johnson is back, as is RB Joe Jackson. But the top deep threat Jayce Brown left to join Lane Kiffin at LSU and will need to be replaced.
On the defensive side, DE Wendell Gregory gets the attention as one of the best pass-rushing prospects in the portal. He had 4 sacks last season at Oklahoma State and now joins Kennesaw State transfer Elijah Hill for a formidable K-State defense.
Last year’s 6-6 season was a departure from the previous three seasons, when Kansas State won between nine and 10 games each year. The Wildcats get to miss BYU, Texas Tech, and Utah this year, so the path is there.
A home game vs. Houston and road games at Arizona State and TCU will decide this season.
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6. Arizona Wildcats
Projected Win Total: 8 (Yes: 1.92x | No 1.81x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Noah Fifita, LB Taye Brown, WR Tre Spivey, CB Jay’Vion Cole
After a solid 9-4 campaign in Brent Brennan’s second season in Tucson, the Wildcats are hoping to take the next step with some veteran returners. Senior QB Noah Fifita returns for his fifth season at Arizona, having already amassed over 9,000 yards and 72 TDs. RB Kedrick Reescano is also back after a 9-TD season.
The key last year was the second-most turnovers forced, which they will look to repeat this season with a secondary full of transfers. The schedule is not easy, with trips to Texas Tech and BYU, along with facing Utah late in the season.
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7. TCU Horned Frogs
Projected Win Total: 8 (Yes: 1.78x | No 1.66x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Jaden Craig, S Jamel Johnson, WR Jordan Dwyer, RB Jeremy Payne
A loss to North Carolina is not what TCU had in mind to start the 2026 season. Sonny Dykes’ fifth season in Fort Worth got off to a shaky start as the Horned Frogs could not generate any offense after scoring 10 points in the opening frame in Dublin.
Highly-touted Harvard QB transfer Jaden Craig struggled in the red zone, leaving points out there on the field.
On the bright side, the Horned Frogs’ defense looked solid against Bill Belichick’s squad. TCU has BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech on the schedule, so they still have the opportunities, but they did get off on the wrong foot.
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8. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Projected Win Total: 8 (Yes: 2.32x | No 1.49x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins, WR Wyatt Young, OL Jacob Sexton
The biggest change in Stillwater is the head coach, as the Mike Gundy era ended after 21 seasons, which included 18 straight winning seasons at one point and eight double-digit win seasons.
20 straight losses to FBS schools ushered in the Eric Morris era. He brings a resume that includes coaching the No. 1 offense in the land last year at North Texas. Morris brings eight North Texas players with him to rebuild a Cowboys offense that was 130th in the nation in total offense last year.
That includes QB Drew Mestemaker, who threw for over 4,800 yards and had 44 total TDs for the Mean Green. An early test vs. No. 2 Oregon will set the tone for the season.
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9. Arizona State Sun Devils
Projected Win Total: 7 (Yes: 1.78x | No 1.88x)
Top Players to Watch: WR Omarion Miller, DL C.J. Fite, LB Owen Long, OT Tana Alo-Tupuola, LB Zyrus Fiaseu
Last year, the Sun Devils did not repeat 2024’s dream run to the Big 12 title and CFP, and will have another tougher test this year after losing QB Sam Leavitt to LSU and Raleek Brown to Texas and WR Jordyn Tyson to the NFL.
Coach Kenny Dillingham did well in the portal, grabbing Reed Harris from Boston College, and still has one of the stronger defenses in the Big 12. No Houston, TCU, or Utah on the schedule will help, but tough trips to Texas Tech, BYU, and UCF still loom large.
10. Cincinnati Bearcats
Projected Win Total: 6 (Yes: 2.08x | No 1.69x)
Top Players to Watch: QB JC French IV, WR Elijah Jones, RB Gi’Bran Payne, WR Isaiah Johnson
The Bearcats have gone from 3 wins to 5 wins to 7 wins in Scott Satterfield’s first three seasons. Can they make the next step?
Georgia Southern QB transfer JC French IV takes over as a dual-threat QB, and has a trio of RB transfers in the backfield in Gi’Bran Payne, Cole Tabb, and Zylan Perry.
The offense worked well at times last year against mediocre opponents but struggled against the Big 12 elite. The Bearcats don’t have an easy schedule with four ranked games over the final seven weeks.
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11. Baylor Bears
Projected Win Total: 6 (Yes: 1.79x | No 1.96x)
Top Players to Watch: QB DJ Lagway, WR Dre’lon Miller, RB Caden Knighten, S Jacob Redding
The Bears were close last year, losing three one-score games, which resulted in a 5-7 record. Sawyer Robinson and his 6,000 passing yards are gone, but Florida transfer and former Heisman candidate DJ Lagway takes over the offense.
Lagway will have to break in new weapons at both RB and WR.
A schedule that opens with Auburn and includes games at Arizona State, UCF, BYU, and Houston won’t help the turnaround.
12. Kansas Jayhawks
Projected Win Total: 7 (Yes: 2.08x | No 1.38)
Top Players to Watch: QB Cole Ballard, LB Trey Lathan, WR Nik McMillan, RB Dylan Edwards
The transfer portal was used often in Lawrence, with over 50 players coming and going to start coach Lance Leipold’s sixth season on the KU sidelines.
Cole Ballard takes over at QB for now Buccaneers backup QB Jalon Daniels, and welcomes RB Dylan Edwards over from rival Kansas State. A bowl game is the goal for Kansas after back-to-back 5-7 seasons.
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13. UCF Knights
Projected Win Total: 6 (Yes: 1.63x | No 2.17x)
Top Players to Watch: LB Lewis Carter, QB Alonza Barnett III, WR Jonathan Bibbs
Scott Frost begins the second year of his second tenure at UCF, hoping to get the Knights back to their winning ways. James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III looks to jump-start an offense that finished 12th in conference.
The defense has been great, ranking 37th in the nation in yards allowed last year.
The Knights need to weather the early storm as four of the final six games are at home, and the two road games are Kansas and Colorado.
14. West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected Win Total: 7 (Yes: 1.96x | No 1.58x)
Top Players to Watch: QB Michael Hawkins, RB Cam Cook, S Matt Sieg
Much like Scott Frost at UCF, Rich Rodriguez enters year 2 of his second stint on the West Virginia sidelines. The first time around, he went 3-8 and a few years later was close to playing in the national championship game.
Can he turn around last year’s 4-8 season the same way?
QB Michael Hawkins comes over from Oklahoma specifically to run a Rodriguez offense, which is promising, but the Mountaineers lost a ton of players on defense. West Virginia avoids BYU, but has road games at Texas Tech, Utah, and TCU.
15: Iowa State Cyclones
Top Players to Watch: QB Jaylen Raynor, RB Cameron Pettaway, EDGE Isaac Terell
After years of saying no to other jobs, longtime Iowa State coach Matt Campbell left to take over Penn State and took several skill-position players with him, including QB Rocco Becht and RB Carson Hansen. New coach Jimmy Rogers will have to rebuild on the fly to repeat last year’s 8-4 record.
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16. Colorado Buffaloes
Projected Win Total: 5+ (Yes: 1.96x | No 1.78x)
Top Players to Watch: LB Liona Lefau, QB Julian Lewis, WR DeAndre Moore Jr.
The post-Shedeur Sanders/Travis Hunter era didn’t go well, as Colorado went from 9 wins to 3.
Coach Prime is hitting the reset button, bringing in over 40 transfers to fix a team that finished 114th in total offense and 100th in rushing last season. Opening up with three road games in four weeks, followed by two home games vs. Texas Tech and Utah — both at the top of the Big 12 rankings — won’t help.
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The Big 12 was dominated by Texas Tech last year, and they're the favorite to repeat as conference champs. Which teams could challenge the Red Raiders for the Big 12 title in 2026?
The college football season kicked off last week with Week 0 and continues with a full slate of games this week, where users can make CFB predictions for the 2026 season.
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