%20for%20Fantasy%20Baseball%20-%20Shohei%20Ohtani.jpg)
The 2026 MLB season begins in one week on March 26. With that said, plenty of season-long outlooks are on our mind.
Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani is towards the top of that list as one of the faces of baseball. He took home a third consecutive MVP award last season, joining Giants OF Barry Bonds (2001-2004) as the second player to win at least three straight.
Will Ohtani tie Bonds with his fourth straight MVP in the 2026 season? Let’s look at Shohei Ohtani’s season projections on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks and his fantasy baseball outlook.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Shohei Ohtani’s 2025 Stats
Availability is vital for any player chasing season-long awards, and Ohtani has played in at least 135 games for five consecutive seasons. That’s certainly played a huge role in the dual threat snagging four MVP awards since 2021.
Ohtani’s 2025 numbers were as good as ever at the plate, smashing a career-high 55 home runs while scoring a career-best 146 runs.
However, he provided more consistent production in 2024 with 197 hits, 130 RBIs, a .310 batting average, and a .431 wOBA. For context, the Dodgers superstar totaled 172 hits and 102 RBIs, paired with a .282 batting average and .418 wOBA last season.
We can’t overlook his production as a starting pitcher either. Los Angeles elected to use Ohtani less on the mound, giving him 14 starts in the 2025 campaign. He recorded 23, 28, and 23 starts from 2021 to 2023 with the Los Angeles Angels.
Of course, Ohtani did not pitch in his first season with the Dodgers in 2024 due to elbow surgery to end the 2023 campaign. He made a mid-season pitching debut in June of 2025. Ohtani still proved why he should remain on the mound, with FanGraphs awarding a 2.87 ERA, 2.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and 11.87 strikeouts per nine innings.
Will the two-way phenom keep up stellar numbers in 2026, backing his MVP campaign?
Shohei Ohtani’s 2026 MLB Projections
Following another stellar season, PrizePicks Team Picks lists Ohtani as the clear favorite to win National League MVP in the 2026 season with a 1.88x payout. Mets OF Juan Soto is the second favorite with a 6.25x payout for the award, followed by Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (8.33x).
Here are some of the top Shohei Ohtani projections on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks, providing insight for NL MVP payouts.
48.5 Home Runs
From 2021 to 2023, Ohtani posted 46, 34, and 44 home runs. He’s taken it to another level with the Dodgers, racking up 54 and 55 dingers in his last two seasons.
Despite his success in the Dodger blue, his 2026 projection is sitting at 48.5 big flies. Advanced numbers suggest the four-time MVP could keep it up in the upcoming campaign.
For example, his .649 xSLG, 23.5% barrel rate, and 58.7% hard-hit rate all finished in the 100th percentile last season, per Baseball Savant. Ohtani’s 94.9 average exit velocity (99th percentile) and 75.8 bat speed (93rd percentile) weren’t too shabby either.
Since 2023, the designated hitter has recorded xSLGs of .646, .672, and .649. Ohtani is still more than capable of reaching 50+ big flies.
FanGraphs is projecting 48 home runs for Ohtani in 2026, making this a potential tight race for his PrizePicks MLB SZN projections.
148.5 Ks
In his return to the bump in 2025, Ohtani started in only 14 games, but he made it count.
Due to a limited sample size, he was not eligible for Baseball Savant’s percentile rankings. However, the right-handed hurler was on pace to finish in the 90th percentile or better in xERA (2.55), fastball velocity (98.1), whiff rate (32.5), K% (33.2), and hard-hit rate allowed (30.8).
Despite a blazing heater, Ohtani still managed to limit opponents to 0.57 home runs per nine innings and a minuscule 7.1% HR/FB. This, paired with an absurd strikeout rate, suggests plenty of long starts ahead.
Deep outings could be the biggest concern for his total Ks in 2026. Likely due to his recovery from elbow surgery, Ohtani averaged only 3.4 innings pitched per start last season. However, he totaled 5.7, 5.9, and 5.7 from 2021 to 2023.
FanGraphs is forecasting a full pitching workload for 2026, with 23 starts and 5.0 innings pitched per outing. Following his career-high 11.87 strikeouts per nine innings a season ago, projections point to regression with a 10.71 K/9.
If decline occurs, 148.5 Ks for the 2026 season could be out of reach. FanGraphs is projecting 138 strikeouts for this season. Keep an eye on Ohtani’s early K/9 and strikeout rate, as this could determine the fate of his 148.5 K projection.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
More Shohei Ohtani 2026 MLB Projections
Shohei Ohtani projections on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks don’t end with home runs and Ks:
- 162.5 Hits
- 115.5 RBIs
- 4.5 Multi-HR Games
- 6.5 Triples
- 25.5 Stolen Bases
Make MLB Picks on PrizePicks
Projections point to another elite season for Ohtani, and it will be his first full campaign as a pitcher and batter since 2023. Despite limited appearances on the rubber, he still managed to win NL MVP in 2024 and 2025. Is Ohtani bound to add to his trophy case with elite pitching in his resume once again?
The MLB regular season is almost here, and with it comes the potential to earn money on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks. MLB predictions include PrizePicks Team Picks, which is now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news.
