The Las Vegas Raiders had high hopes coming into the 2025 season. But under new head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders’ offense never found rhythm, coming away with just two wins in their 16 games.
This led to the in-season firing of Kelly, while Carroll could be one-and-done. Despite boasting talented players like rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, All-Pro TE Brock Bowers, and perennial Pro-Bowler DE Maxx Crosby, they were abysmal on both sides of the ball.
The Raiders now shift focus to the 2026 NFL Draft, where a potential No. 1 pick could reshape their future. Let’s dive in and see if the Raiders will have the first pick in 2026 NFL Draft.
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Who Will Have the First Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Here are the current payout multipliers for which team will make the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in the NFL Futures section on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can pick the team to pick first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft and earn money if you’re right.
- Las Vegas Raiders: 1.2x Yes | 4.16x No
- New York Giants: 6.66x Yes | 1.06x No
- New York Jets: 10x Yes | 1.03x No
Note: Payouts from Team Picks are live as of publishing, but are subject to change
Why the Las Vegas Raiders Will Pick First in the 2026 NFL Draft
With the No. 1 overall pick on the line in Week 17 against the New York Giants, the Raiders suffered a 34-10 defeat. That loss put the Raiders ahead of the Giants for the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
It didn’t seem like the Raiders fought all that hard to come away with the win against the Giants, allowing them to score at least 7 points all four quarters. Meanwhile, QB Geno Smith threw for under 200 yards for the eighth time this season and 2 INTs.
Smith is not slated to start this Sunday for the Raiders’ season finale against the Kansas City Chiefs. Backup QB Kenny Pickett, who is 0-1 with 185 passing yards and 1 TD in limited action, will get the nod.
The Raiders are 6.5-point home underdogs against the Chiefs with the first overall pick on the line.
Why the Las Vegas Raiders Will Not Pick First in the 2026 NFL Draft
The Raiders have the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in their grasp. A loss in a meaningless game against the Chiefs this weekend solidifies them with the coveted top spot in next year’s draft. However, a win against the lowly Chiefs — who will be starting their third-string QB, Chris Oladokun — could derail their future plans.
Hot on their tails are the New York Giants, who could still claim the first pick even with beating the Raiders in Week 17.
This is the scenario where the Giants claim the top selection in the 2026 NFL Draft:
- Loss vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Las Vegas Raiders win vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- 1.5 combined wins (tie counts as half of a win) by ATL/CHI/CLE/SEA
Who Will the Raiders Draft With the First Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Here are the current payout multipliers for the #1 Overall Pick in 2026 in the NFL Futures section on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can, who will be picked first in the 2026 NFL Draft and earn money if you’re right.
- Fernando Mendoza: 1.49x Yes | 2.17x No
- Dante Moore: 3.22x Yes | 1.26x No
Note: Payouts from Team Picks are live as of publishing, but are subject to change
Why the Raiders Will Draft Fernando Mendoza
The current consensus projects Indiana’s Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza as the frontrunner for the Raiders’ top pick. Mendoza passed for 3,172 yards and 36 TDs with an 89.5 QBR, while leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated 14-0 record and the nation’s top ranking.
He is coming off a dominant performance against Alabama, where he went 14-for-16 for 192 yards and 3 TDs in a 38-3 victory. If Mendoza keeps it rolling, he could play himself into Sin City.
Why the Raiders Will Draft Dante Moore
Oregon QB Dante Moore has been the dark horse throughout the majority of the season to be the top QB selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. His 3,280 passing yards and 28 TDs have helped the Ducks amass a 13-1 record and a spot in the semifinals in the College Football Playoffs.
Now, Moore gets to showcase his skills on the biggest stage when he takes on Mendoza, in the CFP Semifinals.
Make NFL Futures Picks on PrizePicks
As the NFL season comes to a close, the top spot for the 2026 NFL Draft looks like a two-team race with the Las Vegas Raiders in the lead by a hair.
Before the season ends this weekend, you can make your pick for Which Team will make the 1st overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on PrizePicks Team Picks. Just go to the PrizePicks app, open Team Picks, and go to NFL Futures, and earn cash if you're right on your pick.
Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more NFL picks, predictions, and news every day.
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