Only two seasons into his Major League career, Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes is already setting history, winning his first Cy Young award a season after earning Rookie of the Year honors. In both seasons, Skenes had a sub-2.00 ERA, recording a 1.96 ERA in 2024 and a 1.97 ERA last season.
There are only two pitchers since 1920 who have posted three seasons with at least 100 innings pitched and a sub-2.00 ERA. Those two are Clayton Kershaw and Sandy Koufax, and neither did it in three consecutive seasons.
If setting MLB history wasn’t enough, Skenes has a chance to win back-to-back NL Cy Young awards, which was last done in 2018 and 2019 by Jacob deGrom. He has already gotten 2026 off to a strong start, earning two wins in two starts, with a 1.08 ERA for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
We’ll dive deep into Skenes’ past performances, compare them to his 2026 season projections, and see if he can eclipse his impressive 2025 numbers and cash in on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks.
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Will Paul Skenes Win the 2026 Cy Young?
In 2025, Paul Skenes was the unanimous winner of the Cy Young Award, taking all 30 first-place votes — only the 13th NL player to do so.
The rising ace is among the favorites to take home another Cy Young in his upcoming third season in the majors. We haven't seen a National League pitcher take it home in back-to-back years since Rangers SP Jacob deGrom in 2018 and 2019.
Tigers SP Tarik Skubal won the American League Cy Young in the last two years. Will Skenes follow suit?
Here are the top 10 favorites to win the 2026 NL Cy Young, via PrizePicks Team Picks, including their payouts if they win the award.
- Paul Skenes: Yes 3.12x | No 1.28x
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Yes 5.88x | 1.08x No
- Cristopher Sanchez: Yes 6.66x | No 1.09x
- Chris Sale: Yes 11.11x | No 1.02x
- Shohei Ohtani: 14.5x
- Logan Webb: Yes 12.5x | No 1.04x
- Jesus Luzardo: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
- Zack Wheeler: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
- Jacob Misiorowski: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
- Nick Pivetta: Yes 22.22x
Team picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Paul Skenes' 2025 Stats
After finishing third in Cy Young voting in his rookie season while winning Rookie of the Year in 2025, expectations were high for the second-year pitcher out of LSU. Consider them exceeded, as Skenes led the majors with a 1.97 ERA, more than a half run lower than his closest competition in the NL and nearly a quarter of a run better than AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (2.21 ERA).
Skenes led the NL in WHIP (0.95) and homers allowed per nine innings (0.5), while amassing 216 strikeouts (second in NL) over 187.7 innings. He’s the first pitcher in the majors to post a sub-2.00 ERA with at least 185 innings since Jacob DeGrom, when he won the Cy Young with the Mets in 2018.
The Pirates righty only had a 10-10 record, which was a result of him getting 3.4 runs per game of support from the Pirates offense, the third-lowest of any qualified pitcher last season. He held opposing hitters to a .199 batting average and .558 OPS, becoming the first pitcher since Dwight Gooden in 1984-85 to win Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards in his first two seasons.
What Do Skenes’ 2026 Predictive Stats Say?
Short of an injury, the predictions don’t see Skenes slowing down anytime soon. MLB’s Brent Maguire predicts a 10+ bWAR for Skenes this season. The last one to accomplish that was Royals’ SP Zack Greinke in his 2009 Cy Young season. Skenes had 7.7 bWAR in 32 starts and 187.2 innings pitched last season for the Pirates.
FanGraphs projects the Pirates' third-year starter for 10.7 strikeouts per 9 innings with a 28.4% K percentage. He is forecasted for between 14 to 16 wins in 2026, and that’s based on the Pirates' offense that finished dead last in runs scored and HRs while finishing 28th in batting average.
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Who Else Can Win the 2026 Cy Young?
There’s no shortage of pitchers in the NL that can challenge Skenes for the Cy Young award.
Dodgers SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto was 12-8 with a 2.49 ERA in 30 starts for the regular season. Plus, he stacked a 5-1 record over six postseason appearances (five starts), earning World Series MVP honors with three wins in the Fall Classic. A repeat of the postseason during his 25+ starts this season for the World Champs would put him on the short list.
Philadelphia is loaded at the top of the rotation, but look no further than Phillies SP Cristopher Sanchez. The hard-throwing lefty was third in the NL with a 2.50 ERA over 32 starts last season, holding teams to a .227 ERA with 212 strikeouts.
Phillies SP Jesus Luzardo is a longer shot, but he recorded 15 wins and a 3.92 ERA with 216 strikeouts in 183.7 innings over 32 starts last year. It was only his second time going over 110 innings, so another injury-free season could put him on radars.
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Can Paul Skenes add to his already impressive resume with a second Cy Young award in a row, to go along with his 2024 ROY award? Or will someone else put their name up there in baseball lore?
You can make your Paul Skenes and 2026 Cy Young picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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