The Los Angeles Chargers are firmly in the postseason mix with the top AFC wild card spot. After totaling only 19.0 points per game over the previous two outings, L.A.’s offense draws a favorable matchup against Dallas’ defense, which allows 30.0 PPG (31st).
With the Cowboys’ careening defense awaiting in Sunday’s 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX, this draws attention to Los Angeles’ offense for fantasy football. That includes rookie RB Omarion Hampton, who has yet to break out since returning from injury in Week 14.
Will Hampton overcome recent production woes against a weak defense? Let’s make a verdict on whether to start or sit the Bolts’ lead tailback in Week 16 while utilizing PrizePicks’ stat projections.
Week 16 RB Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton vs. Cowboys
Since Week 14, Hampton is averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game in full-PPR leagues. That pales in comparison to his 21.8 PPG from Week 3 to 5 before sustaining an injury.
Can the rookie get back on track in a nice matchup?
Why Start Omarion Hampton?
On the surface, Hampton’s 14.0 rushing attempts per game from Weeks 14 to 15 look dandy. However, his snap shares were only 31.1% and 36.4% over the previous two contests.
The 2025 first-round pick was relatively efficient, totaling 4.2 yards per rushing attempt in the split. That’s in line with several of his marks this season, such as 4.6 yards per carry and 3.45 yards after contact per rushing attempt (per Pro Football Focus).
Los Angeles RB Kimani Vidal sports a 66.4% snap rate since Week 14, but his 13.0 rushing attempts per contest are still behind Hampton’s 14.0. PrizePicks projects Vidal with 10 rushing attempts and Hampton with 11.5.
In Weeks 11 and 12, the Cowboys’ defense took a stride forward by holding opponents to 18.5 points per game and 3.0 yards per rushing attempt. However, Dallas has spiraled back to its usual struggles in the last three weeks, surrendering 35.3 points per contest and 4.2 yards per carry.
According to Pro Football Reference, America’s Team cedes 26.0 fantasy points per game against RBs (26th). Furthermore, the Cowboys allow 1.4 rushing TDs per game (29th).
As of Friday morning, Dallas DT Quinnen Williams (concussion) is questionable for Sunday. He’s been the best piece of this rush defense by a landslide, carrying a 90.8 PFF run defense grade.
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Verdict: Favorable Matchup Warrants a Start
Hampton’s snap shares from the last two games cause hesitation, but this could simply be a ramp-up for the rookie. He’s still leading the way in rushing attempts during the span.
With that said, his volume feels secure enough to perhaps lean into a favorable matchup. PrizePicks Team Picks tabs this Sunday's matchup with a 48.5-point total, alluding to plenty of chances for scoring.
In deeper leagues of 12 or 14 teams, the former North Carolina Tar Heel is tracking for a start. However, his low snap percentages of late could keep him on the bench in eight or 10-man leagues.
According to PrizePicks projections, Hampton is forecasted with 47.5 rushing yards, 11.5 receiving yards, and a 10.5 fantasy score.
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The Chargers have kept their star rookie’s snaps in check, but Hampton is still taking most of the backfield’s attempts. If the Bolts reward him with a healthy workload on Sunday, he could return to fantasy stardom.
Use this knowledge and make your picks for Omarion Hampton and the Chargers at PrizePicks, where you have a chance to earn real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash out if you're right.
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