The VCU Rams (21-6) and the No. 18 Saint Louis Billikens (24-2) collide in a heavyweight Atlantic 10 matchup on Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET, televised by ESPN2.
Following a 12-0 start in conference play and 18 consecutive wins, Saint Louis lost 81-76 to Rhode Island on Tuesday. VCU is enjoying a ten-game winning streak and will surpass the Billikens in the A10 standings with a win.
For Friday night’s highly anticipated mid-major matchup, let’s break down some of PrizePicks’ projections — including a VCU vs. Saint Louis prediction and spread.
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VCU vs Saint Louis Prediction, Spread
VCU is 7-3 in the last ten matchups, but Saint Louis has won back-to-back collisions, including January 7’s 71-62 win as 3.5-point underdogs. After covering two consecutive point spreads against the Rams, will the Billikens’ success continue?
Saint Louis (9-1) and VCU (10-0) are hot in the last 10 games, but neither team provides strong marks against the spread (ATS) with 5-5 and 6-4 records.
VCU vs. Saint Louis Over/Under, Spread
Both offenses post over 80.0 points per game (PPG), leading to Friday’s high 165.5 over/under. After losing as the favorite for January’s matchup, VCU is an 8.5-point underdog tonight.
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens -8.5
- Over/Under: 165.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: VCU 3.7x | Saint Louis 1.23x
Team picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
VCU vs. Saint Louis Prediction for Spread
This matchup holds NCAA Tournament stakes, as the Rams are on bubble watch. A quadrant 1 win — defined by a top-30 team at home, a top-50 team on a neutral site, or a top-75 team on the road — would likely lift VCU into the March Madness field.
According to NCAA Net Rankings, the Billikens rank 23rd while the Rams are 45th. Bart Torvik’s efficiency metrics have Saint Louis 22nd and VCU 52nd.
The Billikens boast an electric offense, posting 89.2 PPG (99th percentile) and a 60.8% effective field goal percentage (99th percentile). Slowing this unit will likely be VCU’s greatest challenge; Saint Louis was held to only 71 points while shooting 42.9% from the field in January’s matchup.
Opponents average a 33.2% 3-point shot distribution (95th percentile) and 6.6 made treys per game (89th percentile) against VCU. The Billikens are in the 83rd percentile of 3-point shot distribution, and they made only 6-of-20 attempts (30.0%) in the previous collision.
The Rams also lean on deep shots, ranking in the 78th percentile of 3-point shot distribution. Furthermore, they shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc (86th percentile) and post 9.5 made treys per contest (87th percentile). Saint Louis is in the 36th percentile of 3-point shot distribution allowed and cedes 25.0 attempts from deep per game (21st percentile).
If VCU is controlling the 3-point attacks, tonight’s 8.5-point spread may be too lofty. The Rams could control the possession battle, too, ranking in the 62nd percentile of forced turnovers per game, while the Billikens are in the 18th percentile.
VCU vs. Saint Louis Picks for PrizePicks: Friday, February 20
VCU G Jadrian Tracey could be an angle for targeting 3-pointers, while Saint Louis G Amari McCottry has 2-point value for player picks on PrizePicks.
VCU G Jadrian Tracey vs. Saint Louis Projection: 1.5 Made 3-Pointers
- Opponents shoot 25.0 3-pointers per game (21st percentile) against Saint Louis, and Tracey is second on VCU with 4.8 attempted treys per appearance.
- The Oregon transfer shoots an efficient 38.0% from deep and totals 1.8 made 3-pointers per game.
- Excluding his last game (ten minutes played), Tracey drained 2 triples in five of his past six full appearances. Plus, the senior guard averaged 2.7 3-pointers in the split.
- Even Tracey’s volume is up to 7.7 shots from deep per game in his last three full games.
Saint Louis G Amari McCottry vs. VCU Projection: 10.5 Points
- Saint Louis’ offense also features plenty of shots around the rim, ranked in the 97th percentile of close-2 shot distribution.
- The Rams are in the 10th percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed, and starting VCU F Barry Evans sports a mediocre 1.31 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
- McCottry could get most of the one-on-one matchups against Evans, and he has the Billikens’ highest usage rate at 25.2% while taking 75.3% of his shots from 2-point range.
- After posting 12.0 PPG in his last four games, 10.5 points feels within reach for the sophomore guard.
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Make VCU vs. Saint Louis CBB Picks on PrizePicks
Bart Torvik has both teams in the 79th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos. If VCU is winning the 3-point battle, the road underdog could keep it close in a track meet.
Make your VCU vs. Saint Louis picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
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