Last season, Vanderbilt upset Alabama with 40-35, all but shocking the football world. Can they pull off an encore performance in Tuscaloosa on Saturday? Let’s dive into our Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction for a Saturday SEC showdown that kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
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Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction, Preview for Week 6
The Commodores blew the collective minds of the CFB world last October with a 40-35 dub, Vandy’s first win over Alabama since 1984.
On Saturday, Vandy seeks a 6-0 start to the season.
Alabama bounced back from an ugly opening week loss at Florida State. The Crimson Tide are rolling with three consecutive victories, capped off by a 24-21 triumph at Georgia last Saturday night.
Vanderbilt Commodores
- Heading into October, not many people would have pegged Vanderbilt to rank in the top six in EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush, as they wrapped up last year ranked 23rd in EPA/Pass and 93rd in EPA/Rush.
- The Commodores have topped the 44-point mark in four of their five victories. Their most impressive win came against South Carolina on the road, where they whupped the Gamecocks, 31-7.
- On the defensive side of the ball, Vandy ranks sixth nationally in EPA/Rush. In last year’s upset of Alabama, the Commodores limited the Crimson Tide to 84 rushing yards.
Alabama Crimson Tide
- Alabama’s defense was torched in Tallahassee on opening day, allowing 31 points to FSU. Since then, the Crimson Tide have yielded a total of 35 points over three victories.
- They haven’t generated much pressure on opposing QBs, ranking 123rd in the country in pass-rushing grade, according to PFF.
- Alabama is seventh nationally in adjusted EPA/play at +0.31, but Vanderbilt ranks even higher at fourth with +0.35.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 297.5 Passing Yards
- Simpson has taken care of the ball, with no interceptions in his first four starts. Vanderbilt’s defense has picked off 3 passes through five games.
- Alabama ranks 10th in EPA per dropback, while Vandy sits 88th defensively. Notably, the Commodores have faced three offenses ranked 53rd or worse nationally.
- The strong-armed QB has passed the 300-yard mark once — a 382-yard game in a Week 3 blowout of Wisconsin.
- In two home games, Simpson’s YPA (yards per attempt) is a solid 13.0. On the road, that number dips to 6.0.
- Vanderbilt hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer in its last seven games. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier was the last to do it, back in November.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia vs. Alabama Projection: 203.5 Passing Yards
- Pavia became a Commodore legend after throwing for 252 yards and 2 TDs in last season’s upset of Alabama.
- Alabama hasn’t allowed a QB to throw for more than 152 yards in a game this season.
- The Tide rank 46th in yards per dropback allowed, while Vandy’s offense is ninth — a jump from 63rd last season.
- Pavia’s lowest yardage total came against South Carolina (177 yards). In non-conference play, he topped 245 yards in three of four games.
- However, in six career road games against SEC opponents, Pavia has never thrown for 200+ yards.
Alabama WR Ryan Williams vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 66.5 Receiving Yards
- Williams has logged 5 receptions in each of his three games this season. However, he was held to 43 or fewer yards against FSU and Georgia.
- His breakout came in Week 3 vs. Wisconsin with 165 yards, his second-highest career total.
- Williams averaged 11.95 YPC last season, but that’s dipped to 10.35 this year.
- In last season’s loss at Vandy, he caught a 58-yard TD and finished with 82 yards on just 3 catches.
- Williams has excelled in the second half this season, averaging 22.2 yards per catch and scoring both his TDs in the third quarter. In the first half, he's racking up 11.7 yards per catch.
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Alabama seeks revenge for last season’s shocking loss to Vanderbilt in a key SEC battle this Saturday in Tuscaloosa.
Ahead of the Vanderbilt vs. Alabama kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET, it's time to lock in your CFB picks on PrizePicks to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions when you're right.
