The final bowl game kicking off on Tuesday night takes place in San Antonio in a battle of Big Ten and Big 12 squads.
The USC Trojans (9-3) hook up with the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) in the Alamo Bowl as Big Ten teams look for a 5-0 bowl record.
The Trojans won four of their final five games, capped off by a 29-10 rout of rival UCLA, although USC failed to cover as 22-point favorites.
USC will be without top WR Makai Lemon, who declared for the NFL Draft. The junior led all Big Ten receivers with 1,156 yards and scored 11 TDs, tied for second-most in the conference.
The Horned Frogs captured their last two contests against Houston (17-14) and Cincinnati (45-23). TCU rolls into its third bowl game in four seasons under head coach Sonny Dykes.
TCU QB Josh Hoover heads to the transfer portal after throwing for 3,472 yards in his junior season.
Let’s look at the USC vs. TCU prediction and picks for Tuesday’s tilt at the Alamodome in San Antonio, kicking off at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
USC vs. TCU Alamo Bowl Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Neither school produced a winning record against the spread in 2025. The Trojans finished 5-7, while the Horned Frogs compiled a 6-6 mark against the number.
USC vs. TCU Over/Under, Spread
The Trojans enter this matchup as 6.5-point favorites, returning a 1.38x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Horned Frogs are underdogs with a 2.7x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: USC -6.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Game Winner Payout: USC 1.38x | TCU 2.7x
(Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change)
USC vs. TCU Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for USC vs. TCU tonight, including insights on our USC vs. TCU prediction.
- Head coach Lincoln Riley’s club easily covered in their first two games against Missouri State (73-13) and Georgia Southern (59-20). However, they finished 2-6 against the spread in their final eight opportunities as a favorite.
- The Trojans failed to cover as a favorite in five victories. The lone loss as a favorite came in a last-gasp defeat at Illinois in late September, falling 34-32 as 6.5-point chalk.
- USC won its bowl game the last two seasons, but each time as an underdog. The Trojans lost in their last opportunity as a bowl favorite in 2022, dropping a 46-45 shootout to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.
- The Horned Frogs compiled a 1-2 mark as an underdog. TCU held off Houston as a one-point dog, 17-14 in Week 13, but lost road contests to BYU (44-13) and Arizona State (27-24).
- The Trojans posted the fifth-best Net EPA/Play in the nation and the third-best offensive success rate according to GameOnPaper.com.
USC vs. TCU Picks for Alamo Bowl
Here are three USC vs. TCU picks to target on Tuesday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by USC QB Jayden Maiava, TCU QB Ken Seals, and Trojans WR Tanook Hines.
USC QB Jayden Maiava vs. TCU Projection: 256.5 Passing Yards
- The junior led the Big Ten with 3,431 passing yards and finished with at least 257 yards in the three of the final four games.
- The Hawaii native racked up at least 300 passing yards in all three losses. In USC’s nine victories, Maiava averaged 270.3 yards per game.
- TCU’s defense ranked 87th in EPA/Pass, compared to 11th in EPA/Rush. The Horned Frogs have allowed at least 280 passing yards in four of the last six outings.
- The Trojans averaged 40.6 points per game in their last three bowl appearances. Maiava posted 295 yards in last season’s 35-31 triumph over Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl.
TCU QB Ken Seals vs. USC Projection: 214.5 Passing Yards
- Seals gets his opportunity to shine after Hoover’s departure to the portal. The senior completed 4-of-6 passes for 24 yards and an interception.
- The former Vanderbilt signal caller began his college career in 2020, spending three seasons with the Commodores.
- The last time Seals reached this projection came in 2023, finishing with 280 yards in a 38-14 defeat to Florida while at Vandy.
- USC’s defense sits 43rd in the nation in EPA/Pass and has limited six of the last seven QBs to fewer than 207 passing yards.
- The only opposing QB to bypass this projection in this stretch is Oregon’s Dante Moore, who put up 257 yards in USC’s most recent loss on November 22.
USC WR Tanook Hines vs. TCU Projection: 79.5 Receiving Yards
- Hines finished fourth in receiving yards with 398 on 28 receptions.
- The good news for the freshman is both Lemon and second-leading receiver Ja’Kobi Lane (745 yards) won’t suit up, giving Hines an opportunity to stand out.
- The Houston native lit up Oregon for a career-high 141 yards in late November on 6 catches.
- Hines’ two best games came against Oregon and Notre Dame, hauling in 67 yards in a 34-24 loss to the Fighting Irish in mid-October.
- TCU yielded at least 80 yards to six different wide receivers during Big 12 play.
Make Alamo Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
USC seeks its first 10-win season since Riley’s first campaign with the Trojans in 2022. TCU is at a quarterback disadvantage, but will try to limit Maiava for an Alamo Bowl victory.
There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every CFB moment than with PrizePicks.
There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can build your Lineup however you’d like — with no salary or positional restrictions. Just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
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