The United States has gotten off to a sensational 2-0 start in the 2026 World Cup and already clinched its spot in the Round of 32. Before the next round begins, the USMNT will have its final Group D showdown when they face Türkiye on Thursday, June 25 at 10:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
USA is a strong favorite to win this match, with a 1.75x payout if they win (65% implied probability, compared to Türkiye’s 3.57x payout). It’s possible that Christian Pulisic could make his return from injury, but it’s unclear what kind of playing time he’ll receive.
As a result, players like Ricardo Pepi could play a larger role in Thursday’s match.
How will the USMNT finish up the group stage against a Türkiye squad with nothing to lose? Let’s dive into our United States vs. Türkiye picks, preview and World Cup 2026 player projections on PrizePicks.
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USA vs. Türkiye Picks for World Cup – Thursday, June 25
The United States imposed its will against Australia during a 2-0 Matchday 2 win last week. According to FotMob, the United States posted a 62% possession rate, registered 10 shots (2 on target), and completed 85% of passes. On the other hand, Australia managed just a 38% possession rate, recorded only 5 total shots, and had an expected goals (xG) of 0.35.
The Americans have gotten off to impressive starts in each of their first two World Cup matches. In fact, the USMNT has scored 5 of its 6 goals in the first half of those matches.
When the United States takes on Türkiye, it’s unclear if Pulisic will start or what kind of minutes he’ll play. Pulisic did reveal that he is ready to return to the lineup after suffering a hamstring injury against Paraguay in the World Cup opener.
With that said, here are a few United States vs. Türkiye player picks and stats to consider for Thursday’s World Cup 2026 match — featuring projections from PrizePicks.
USA CF Ricardo Pepi vs. Türkiye: 2 Shots
- Pepi tallied 2 shots in the United States’ 2-0 win against Australia in Matchday 2. After logging just 18 minutes against Paraguay in the World Cup opener, Pepi played 74 minutes before being substituted out in the second half.
- While playing for the Dutch club PSV in 2025-26, Pepi registered 3.89 shots per 90 minutes, ranking in the 99th percentile per FootyStats.
- Pepi owns a 26.23% shot conversion rate (94th percentile) and a 52.46% shot accuracy (89th percentile) while playing for PSV.
- Türkiye has surrendered 16 shots in total throughout its opening two World Cup matches against Australia and Paraguay.
- Pepi compiled 1.02 goals per 90 minutes when playing for PSV and could have more playing time if some of the United States’ top players don’t play extended minutes in this Matchday 3 affair.
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USA GK Matt Freese vs. Türkiye: 2.5 Goalie Saves
- Freese recorded 2 saves against Australia in the USMNT’s 2-0 Matchday 2 win and has conceded just 1 goal in two matches during the 2026 World Cup.
- According to FootyStats, the American goalkeeper has tallied 3.47 saves per 90 minutes for New York City FC, which ranks in the 75th percentile in MLS.
- In a 1-0 loss to Paraguay in Matchday 2, Türkiye racked up 32 shots, with 5 being on target. Türkiye also registered 5 big chances throughout the match.
- In its opening two World Cup matches, Türkiye has compiled a 1.77 expected goals (xG) despite failing to find the back of the net up to this point.
- Türkiye has averaged 50.5 touches in the opposition’s box in its first two World Cup matches, leading to plentiful shot opportunities.
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Türkiye GK Uğurcan Çakır vs. United States: 2.5 Goalie Saves
- Çakır has racked up 3 saves across his first two matches. However, it’s worth noting that those came against less-than-stellar competition in Australia and Paraguay.
- The United States has attempted 26 total shots (8 on target) in its first two matches against Australia and Paraguay.
- Considering the Americans’ relentless attack, Çakır may be counted on to make several key saves, especially in the first half when the United States is operating at full strength.
- Çakır has tallied at least 3 saves in his final five matches while playing for Galatasaray in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
- The United States has racked up 73 touches in the opposition’s box in its first two matches, so there could be plenty of opportunities for Çakır to make a few saves.
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Make USA vs. Türkiye World Cup Picks on PrizePicks
The uncertainty of Pulisic’s playing time could lead to increased opportunities for Pepi and others for United States vs. Türkiye player picks. In addition, Freese aims to shut the door against a Türkiye squad that has registered a ton of shots.
Don’t wait until lock. Make your United States vs. Türkiye picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.
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