On the heels of back-to-back losses to open the season, the vibes can’t be much worse for the Miami Dolphins. Things don't get any easier in Week 3, as Thursday Night Football sees the 0-2 Fins go on the road to face the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.
The bout features plenty of star power, including Bills QB Josh Allen and Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill. Although Miami leads the all-time series with a 62-60-1 record, Buffalo closed the gap in a major way, winning six in a row and 15 of the last 17 meetings.
Below, we’ll dive into some Tyreek Hill projections and best NFL DFS picks for the Dolphins wideout on TNF.
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Tyreek Hill Projections vs. Bills, Best Picks
Dolphins vs. Bills is high-stakes, even three weeks into the season. With Buffalo riding high and Miami dwelling in the cellar, there are serious AFC East implications. Can Hill find success against an expected high volume of Cover 4?
Tyreek Hill Projection: 65.5 Receiving Yards
- A yardage projection of 65.5 yards is a far cry from Hill’s league-leading 112.4 average production in 2023. It is, however, higher than his 56.4-yard per-game mark from a season ago.
- In nine career games against the Bills, Hill averages just 52.2 yards per game. Historically, he’s performed worse against just three other opponents: the Colts, Saints and Steelers.
- Last year, Week 2’s game in Orchard Park saw Hill record just 3 catches for 24 yards, but he picked it up in Week 9’s showdown in Miami (4 catches for 80 yards).
- Hill is coming off a 6-catch, 109-yard showing in Week 2. The eight-time Pro Bowler faces a tall task for an encore, as the Bills have allowed the NFL’s fewest passing yards thus far.
Tyreek Hill Projection: 5.5 Receptions
- In those aforementioned nine games versus the Bills, Hill averages 8 targets and 5 receptions per game. It doesn’t help that his per-game pace for 2025 is exactly 5 catches a week.
- Buffalo enters Week 3 tied for the third-fewest receptions surrendered to opposing wide receivers (16).
- According to Pro Football Focus, Hill has logged 42.9% of his 2025 snaps in the slot, his highest figure since 2021 with the Kansas City Chiefs. Getting some more free releases near the line of scrimmage should be a benefit.
- Fellow Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle comes into Thursday Night Football as questionable. If he’s hindered by a shoulder issue, Hill’s workload and production could swing.
Tyreek Hill Projection: 23.5 Yards on Longest Reception
- Once known for long-ball TDs, the aging Hill’s effectiveness down the field isn’t the same. He’s likely attempting to disprove that narrative, though, as evidenced by his 47-yard big play in Week 2.
- That catch against the Patriots was Hill’s first reception of 30-plus yards since Week 1 of 2024, when he posted his second-highest yards per target mark (15.6) since 2023.
- Against the Bills, Hill averages a measly 6.44 yards per target, his lowest against any team he’s faced more than once.
- After averaging a career-worst 5.7 intended air yards per attempt last year, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is back up his career baseline of 7.5 yards. Hill’s deep ball target split (20-plus yards) is up from 15.7% in 2024 to 38.5% in 2025, per PFF.
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Hill and the Dolphins seem one bad week away from things heading even further south, so they have every reason to deliver an inspired performance in Week 3, thus Dolphins vs. Bills presents plenty of NFL DFS opportunities, including best picks on projections for the Cheetah.
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