Conference title week is here for college football, and it kicks off with a big-time matchup in Harrisonburg, VA.
Friday night’s Sun Belt Championship bout between Troy and #25 James Madison sees the Trojans attempt to pull off a huge road upset over the Dukes. With action kicking off at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN, the crowd should be rocking at Bridgeforth Stadium.
Here, we’ll break down a Troy vs. James Madison prediction and picks for the Sun Belt Championship on Friday. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game for player projections on QB Alonza Barnett and others.
Troy vs. James Madison Prediction, Preview for Friday, 12/5
With James Madison not having joined the FBS until 2022, this conference title game is anything but a rivalry. Friday marks just the fourth time the two sides will square off dating back to 1994.
Entering the Sun Belt Championship, the Dukes own a 2-1 series lead, including a 16-14 triumph in 2023.
The Trojans enter Friday’s game as 23.5-point road underdogs, returning a 10x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Dukes are home favorites with a 1.03x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: James Madison Dukes -23.5
- Total: 48.5
- Game Winner Payout: Trojans 10x | Dukes 1.03x
All payouts listed are at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Troy Trojans Preview vs. James Madison
Following a successful 11-3 campaign in 2023, Troy took a major step back given the departure of head coach Jon Sumrall. They posted a measly 4-8 record a season ago.
This year is seeing something of a return to form for the Trojans. They’re 8-4 coming into the Sun Belt Championship, including a 6-2 record in conference play with head coach Gerad Parker.
Unfortunately, Troy’s team success hasn’t had much to do with their offense. The program ranks 127th in yards per play at 4.5.
Defensively, the Trojans are 56th in scoring (24.3 points per game) but have CFB’s 19th-best red zone group (77.5%).
James Madison Dukes Preview vs. Troy
After Curt Cignetti’s departure, head coach Bob Chesney led James Madison to a 9-4 2024 campaign, capped off by a Boca Raton Bowl victory over Western Kentucky.
Chesney and company are faring even better this year, going 11-1 entering Friday and not having lost since Sept. 5.
The Dukes boast a potent offense, which ranks ninth in scoring (37.2 PPG) and seventh in third down conversion rate (50%).
Don’t forget about JMU’s defense. It sits 10th in scoring (16.5 PPG) and is third in opposing yards per game (263.1) allowed.
Troy vs. James Madison Sun Belt Championship Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Troy vs. James Madison picks to consider for Week 15’s Sun Belt Championship. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Goose Crowder and Alonza Barnett and RB Wayne Knight.
Troy QB Will “Goose” Crowder vs. James Madison Projection: 197.5 Pass Yards
- Crowder averages just 186.3 passing yards per game, although a 3-attempt outing in Sept. 13’s 28-7 loss to Memphis is included in that sample.
- According to Game on Paper, Troy’s passing offense ranks 109th in EPA/play at -0.05. QB Tucker Kilcrease averaged 0.39 EPA/dropback, with Crowder posting -0.10.
- The Dukes’ defense ranks fourth in opposing completion percentage (51.52) and ninth in yards per pass (5.9).
- Keep an eye on sacks. Troy ranks 135th with a QB takedown clip of 12.37%, and James Madison’s defense has the 26th-highest sack rate (7.61%) in the nation.
James Madison QB Alonza Barnett vs. Troy Projection: 253.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- Barnett averages 241.6 combined yards per game. In his last seven contests, that figure spikes to 306.7.
- Although Troy’s defense sits in the 76th percentile in EPA/pass, it’s in the 28th percentile in yards per pass allowed.
- Via Game on Paper, Barnett’s 46.0% passing success rate ranks 40th among 132 qualified QBs.
- Barnett has rushed for 30+ yards in five of his last six games, topping 95 yards twice and accumulating 8 ground TDs in that span.
James Madison RB Wayne Knight vs. Troy Projection: 89.5 Rush Yards
- Knight’s career year continues with the Dukes, seeing him post a personal best 87.6 rushing yards per game. In his last four games, he averaged 98.0.
- Per Pro Football Focus, 147 FBS RBs have 100+ carries in 2025. Knight’s 46.8% breakaway run rate ranks 22nd.
- James Madison ranks eighth in rush attempts per game (44.2) and 18th in yards per rush (5.3).
- Troy allows 180.6 rushing yards per game, sitting 101st nationally.
Make Troy vs. #25 James Madison Picks on PrizePicks
As the college football campaign winds down, Troy vs. James Madison picks are far from the only ones to consider in Week 15. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on the action.
Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and win rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football coverage.
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