Tonight’s Monday Night Football features an AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) on Oct. 6 at 8:15 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN and ABC.
Fresh off a convincing win over the Baltimore Ravens, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs travel to face Trevor Lawrence and a Jaguars team looking to make a statement in primetime.
We'll break down the top Travis Kelce projections and PrizePicks picks for Monday Night Football tonight vs. the Jaguars.
🏈 PLAY $5, GET $50 Instantly in Lineups for Monday Night Football → Use PrizePicks Promo Code PLAYBOOK
In four games vs. the Jaguars since 2018, Kelce has had either a touchdown or 80+ yards receiving vs. the Jaguars. Now, he'll face a new-look Jags team that has been shutdown, ranking second in total expected points added (-33.41), per Sumer Sports.
After a quiet stretch by his standards in 2025, Kelce has still notched at least 4 catches in three straight games.
As the Chiefs navigate injuries, a suspension to WR Rashee Rice, and shuffle weapons, Mahomes’ trust in Kelce has been the stabilizer. Will he be the same again tonight?
Travis Kelce Projections vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football
The Chiefs haven’t always started the season in Super Bowl form, but Andy Reid always finds a way to get them on track by the time October hits. Kelce is still a key part of this offense, with a 16% target share, ranking second on the team in targets (22), with WR Hollywood Brown leading the team there.
The return of WR Xavier Worthy should give the Chiefs more weapons to push the pass offense forward, including opening up space for Kelce to succeed.
Across four weeks, he’s averaging 45.5 receiving yards per game — the lowest of his career — and now he'll face a tough Jaguars defense.
The Jaguars have allowed the the 16th-most passing TDs (7) this year, with 233.5 passing yards per game (23rd in NFL), on the third-ranked pass defense in EPA/play overall.
The Jags defense hasn’t yet faced an elite QB-TE duo in 2025, going up against the 49ers without George Kittle, the Bengals, Panthers, and Texans. Despite that, the Jaguars are still surrendering 49.75 yards per game to opposing TEs.
Monday night will be their first tough test in Kelce.
Even as he continues to distribute the ball across his targets, Mahomes will need to lean on quick timing routes and Kelce’s reliability between the hashes to move the ball.
🏈 PLAY $5, GET $50 Instantly in Lineups for Monday Night Football → Use PrizePicks Promo Code PLAYBOOK
Travis Kelce Projections vs. Jaguars for Monday Night Football
Projections are via the PrizePicks NFL board – pick players, predict More or Less on stats like the ones below, and win money when you’re right.
- 4 Receptions
- 43.5 Receiving Yards
- 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
- 10.5 Fantasy Score
- 6 Targets
- 18.5 yards longest reception.
Travis Kelce Pick vs. Jaguars: 41.5 Receiving Yards
- Kelce has topped 41 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, with the exception being a 22-9 thrashing of the New York Giants in Week 3, limiting the need for Kelce's presence in the pass game.
- He owns a 16% target share in Kansas City’s offense, second only to WR Hollywood Brown (23%).
In Week 4, San Francisco 49ers TE Jake Tonges became the first TE to clear 40 yards against Jacksonville's defense in 2025. - When he's in the slot, Kelce will likely face a lot of Jaguars nickel CB Jourdan Lewis, who is allowing just 7.2 yards per reception (121st) and 39.7 passer rating allowed (136th), per PFF, on 16 receptions against.
- Kelce is still thriving on short to intermediate routes late in his career, hauling in 15-of-19 pass attempts for 182 yards from under 20 yards away, per PFF.
Travis Kelce Pick vs. Jaguars: 4 Receptions
- Kelce has at least 4 catches in three games this season.
- Kelce has 5+ catches in five straight Monday Night Football games, and 4 or more in 15-of-16 career MNF matchups.
- He’s seen 5+ targets in each of his last three games, with steady red-zone involvement.
- Jacksonville’s defense ranks 6th in opponent completion rate (59.6%), showing sturdy coverage on short-to-intermediate passes.
- Taylor Swift’s album may have dropped on Friday, but Kelce’s encore is overdue. After back-to-back quiet outings (4 catches for 26 yards vs. the Giants, 5 for 48 vs. the Ravens in a blowout), Monday night might be his chance to shake off the slump.
Make Chiefs vs. Jaguars Picks on PrizePicks
Travis Kelce is built for primetime appearances, and his consistency makes him a key target on PrizePicks on the Monday Night Football board for Chiefs vs. Jaguars.
No matter how you see Chiefs vs. Jaguars playing out, PrizePicks lets you cash in on your predictions. Choose More or Less on Kelce’s stat projections tonight — or stack him with Mahomes, Lawrence, or Travis Etienne Jr.
