MLB has another packed lineup on deck, with all 30 teams in action on Wednesday, May 6. The Blue Jays vs. the Rays begin the day at 1:10 p.m. ET, and the Pirates vs. the Diamondbacks are the final matchup of the day with a 9:40 p.m. ET start time.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate. Following back-to-back games with a home run, Braves 1B Matt Olson looks to cap his series against the Mariners with yet another long ball.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Wednesday, May 6, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, May 6
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Angels OF Mike Trout
- Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
- Mariners C Cal Raleigh
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Braves 1B Matt Olson
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners – 4:10 p.m. ET
Mariners Starting Pitcher: Bryan Woo (7 GS, 1-2, 4.64 xFIP, 37.2% hard-hit, 51.9% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed T-Mobile Park.
- The Atlanta Braves lead baseball with 212 runs scored, and Matt Olson has been the heartbeat of the order with a team-high 13 home runs, 33 RBIs, a .392 OBP, and a .685 SLG.
- Olson has torched the Mariners through two games of this series, recording 3 hits and 2 home runs over 6 at-bats (.500).
- He faces another pitcher susceptible to slugging today, as Mariners SP Bryan Woo has yielded 1.32 HR/9.
- Frankly, Woo seems fortunate to carry only a 9.0% home run-to-fly ball (HR/FB) rate allowed.
- Seattle’s starter has given up a 51.9% fly ball rate and a 37.2% hard-hit rate, surpassing the league averages of 38.6% and 33.0%.
- According to Baseball Savant, Olson boasts a 51.9% hard-hit rate (90th percentile), and FanGraphs awards the Braves’ first baseman with a 50.0% fly ball rate and 24.1% HR/FB.
- Woo’s most-used pitch is a four-seam fastball (49.0%), and Olson bats .325 against the pitch while totaling 5 of his 13 home runs vs. heaters.
Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (7 GS, 3-2, 4.30 xFIP, 29.4% hard-hit, 47.2% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, 25% chance of rain, and 10 mph winds out to RF
- Bryce Harper is heating up in May, tallying a .421/.500/1.053 slash line over his last five games. This includes 3 long balls in his past two outings as well.
- Baseball Savant also gives Harper strong slugging numbers, including a .553 xSLG (93rd percentile) and a 14.3% barrel rate (83rd percentile).
- Athletics SP Jeffrey Springs has allowed 6 home runs over his last three starts.
- Recent struggles have elevated Springs’ numbers to 1.40 HR/9 and a 47.2% fly ball rate.
- Harper’s 40.4% fly ball rate is slightly above the 38.6% league average, paired with an exceptional 20.5% HR/FB.
- A four-seam fastball (43.1%) leads Springs’ pitch usage, and Harper bats .300 against the pitch while launching 5 of his 9 homers against fastballs.
- Harper’s fly balls could get extra lift with strong winds blowing out to right field tonight.
Add Bryce Harper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Yankees OF Aaron Judge
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees – 7:05 p.m. ET
Rangers Starting Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (7 GS, 3-4, 3.49 xFIP, 42.6% hard-hit, 32.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 68 degrees, 44% chance of rain, and 10 mph winds toward 3B.
- As usual, Aaron Judge is among the most popular HR picks, and he has the stats to back it up with a league-leading 14 big flys.
- Furthermore, Judge carries a .696 xSLG (100th percentile), a 27.7% barrel rate (100th percentile), and a 54.2% hard-hit rate (95th percentile).
- Rangers SP Nathan Eovaldi, who has an alarming 2.04 HR/9 and 23.1% HR/FB allowed, has the tall task of fending off Judge’s power.
- Eovaldi has given up 5 homers over his previous three starts, and opponents log a 90.7 average exit velocity (22nd percentile).
- Judge swings perhaps the most dangerous bat in the big leagues, supported by a 93.3 average exit velocity (94th percentile) and 75.8 bat speed (92nd percentile).
- Winds blowing toward third base may aid the right-handed Judge.
- If rain leads to a shortened start for Eovaldi, Texas’ bullpen allows a concerning 43.9% fly ball rate (fourth-highest mark).
Add Aaron Judge to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, and Aaron Judge form a strong trio of red-hot sluggers for Wednesday’s most popular home run predictions. Each hitter has multiple home runs through a handful of games in May. Will they add to that total tonight?
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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