A six-game Monday MLB slate sees only 12 teams take the field. With that said, there could still be plenty of excitement as stars like Los Angeles Angels CF Mike Trout and New York Yankees RF Aaron Judge look to deliver big-time performances for their teams.
Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.
Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Monday, May 11, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Monday, May 11
Hitting a home run is one of baseball’s best adrenaline rushes for players and fans alike. It’s no easy feat, though, as evidenced by last year’s totals. Only one player (Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh) managed to swat 60 balls over the fences, and just three more hit 50+ homers.
There’s so much more that goes into hitting a home run than raw power. Weather conditions, launch angle, pitcher matchups, and tendencies all play roles — and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5.
Let’s take a look at some of the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks as of the time of writing.
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Angels CF Mike Trout
- Yankees RF Aaron Judge
- Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Mariners C Cal Raleigh
Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.
Angels CF Mike Trout
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians – 6:10 p.m. ET
Guardians Starting Pitcher: Joey Cantillo
MLB Weather Report: 53 degrees, clear skies, 6 mph north wind
- Despite walking or striking out on a whopping 45.8% of at-bats, Trout has still managed to club 11 home runs in 40 games.
- The future Hall of Fame man’s ISO (.270) and wOBA (.407) are both his highest marks since the 2022 campaign, his last year with 6+ fWAR.
- Entering Sunday’s play, Trout had the fourth-highest year-over-year increase in barrel rate (+8.1%) among all qualified hitters.
- Furthermore, the former MVP winner sits in the 99th percentile in barrel rate (23.9%) and xSLG (.623) on the year.
- While Cantillo sports a career-low 39.3% hard-hit percentage, his 13.3-degree average launch angle and 8.4% barrel rate are both personal highs.
- Cantillo doesn’t boast an impressive fastball, as it sits in the 12th percentile in velocity. That’s music to Trout’s ears, as he’s slugging .573 with a .693 xSLG against the offering.
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Yankees RF Aaron Judge
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 p.m. ET
Orioles Starting Pitcher: Brandon Young
MLB Weather Report: 62 degrees, clear skies, 4 mph northwest wind
- The 2026 season’s co-leader for home runs has 16 already, accompanied by a video game-like .637 SLG and .370 ISO.
- Even with his bat speed slowing down 1.1 mph year-over-year, Judge’s barrel rate has risen by 1.9%.
- Judge’s home run to fly ball ratio of 37.2% is currently tracking to be a new personal record for the legendary outfielder.
- There may not be a greater power threat than the 34-year-old right now, backed by his 100th-percentile xSLG (.663) and xwOBA (.445).
- Young has cut down on the home runs in year No. 2, but he’s still giving up 1.31 per nine innings.
- Opponents hit Young hard; he’s in the 36th percentile in hard-hit share (42.3%) and the 28th percentile in average exit velocity (90.2 mph).
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Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: 8:10 p.m. ET
Mariners Starting Pitcher: George Kirby
MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome
- In addition to owning a career-high 188 wRC+, Alvarez has a .325 ISO and a .642 SLG that’d be his best since an 87-game debut in 2019.
- This is the second consecutive year in which Alvarez has an average exit velocity of at least 94 mph, paired with a launch angle of 18+ degrees and a hard-hit rate over 52%. He’s a model of consistency.
- Alvarez’s Savant page features a whole lot of red, including a 100th-percentile benchmark for xSLG (.771) and a 99th-percentile slotting in launch angle sweet-spot percentage (46.0%).
- According to Ballpark Pal, Monday’s conditions are slated to be 6% more conducive to hitting a homer.
- In fairness to Kirby, he’s turning in a terrific campaign and is tough to hit. With that said, he’s middle-of-the-pack in both average exit velo (88.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (39.1%).
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Some heavy hitters populate the list of top MLB home run picks for Monday, as the duo of Trout and Judge leads the way as American League MVP candidates. Could either player go yard, or perhaps someone like Alvarez as he continues to pile up long balls?
Don’t wait until first pitch today — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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