The Miami (OH) Redhawks enter this week as one of four MAC teams owning a 4-1 conference record. The Redhawks lost in the conference title game last season and are looking for an opportunity to return to the MAC championship.
Toledo seeks consecutive wins for the first time since September as the Rockets come into this matchup at 3-2 in league action.
Let’s dive into this Toledo vs. Miami prediction for Wednesday’s MACtion, kicking off at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio.
Toledo vs. Miami Prediction, Wednesday CFB Picks
- Toledo crushed Northern Illinois last Wednesday, 42-3 to improve to 5-4 overall.
- The Rockets have alternated wins and losses in each of the last seven games.
- In each of the past four victories, Toledo has allowed 10 or fewer points.
- Miami had its five-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 24-20 setback at Ohio.
- Since losing a 41-38 shootout to UNLV in Week 4, the Redhawks have won three consecutive home contests.
- Toledo held off Miami at home in last season’s matchup, 30-20. The Rockets avenged a loss to the Redhawks in the 2023 MAC title game.
- The Rockets seek their first road victory, dropping their first four games away from the Glass Bowl.
Toledo Rockets
- The Rockets’ rushing attack has compiled some subpar metrics: Toledo ranks 109th in EPA/rush and sits 125th in rushing success.
- Toledo’s defensive metrics are excellent, owning the second-ranked EPA/pass and 11th EPA/rush in the nation.
- Among MAC teams, Toledo is the third-best rushing team, averaging 177.8 yards per game. However, the two worst rushing performances came on the road with 61 yards at Washington State and 59 yards in the opening loss at Kentucky.
Miami-Ohio Redhawks
- The Redhawks are 123rd in the nation in defensive EPA/rush and dip to 131st in defensive rush success.
- Miami QB Dequan Finn spent his first four seasons at Toledo before transferring to Baylor in 2024. Finn came to the Redhawks this season and passed for 1,451 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.
- The Redhawks are middle of the road in net/EPA both offensively and defensively, ranking 54th in each category.
Below are the top CFB DFS picks for Wednesday night’s battle between Toledo and Miami-Ohio.
Toledo QB Tucker Gleason Projection: 225.5 Passing Yards
- Gleason is fresh off his most productive game of the season, posting 309 yards in the 39-point blowout of Northern Illinois.
- In each of the past six games, Gleason has eclipsed 226 passing yards. The senior has racked up more than 238 passing yards in three of four road contests.
- In last season’s 30-20 triumph over the Redhawks, Gleason threw for 318 yards, his highest output of the 2024 regular season.
- Miami’s defense limited four of five conference foes to less than 220 passing yards.
Miami-Ohio RB Jordan Brunson Projection: 56.5 Rushing Yards
- The senior is finally getting his opportunity to shine, racking up a career-high 444 rushing yards through seven games.
- Brunson rushed for 38 total yards in his first two games, but is averaging 81.2 yards over the last five contests.
- He has shined in his past two home performances, rushing for 122 yards against Eastern Michigan and 90 yards against Western Michigan.
- Toledo’s rushing defense has improved from 23rd in 2024 to 11th in 2025 in EPA/rush. The Rockets are fourth in the country in adjusted EPA/play on defense.
Toledo WR Junior Vandeross III Projection: 81.5 Receiving Yards
- Vandeross is the biggest target in this Toledo passing attack, picking up 705 yards on 58 receptions.
- The senior owns three performances of 100+ receiving yards, including 122-yard outputs each against Western Kentucky and Akron.
- The 5'8" mighty-mite's top two snap counts came on the road against Washington State (46) and Kentucky (44). However, he finished with 52 receiving yards on a season-high 12 targets in the loss to Washington State in Week 9.
- In two of the last three games, Miami’s defense has yielded 82 or more yards to an opposing wide receiver.
Wednesday’s MACtion is highlighted by a rematch of the 2023 conference title game between Toledo and Miami with plenty on the line atop the league standings.
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