The 20-10 Minnesota Timberwolves roll into Christmas Day on a heater, having won three in a row and five out of six. In what shapes up to be one of the more interesting holiday evening matchups, the Wolves visit the 21-8 Denver Nuggets.
Tip off at 10:30 p.m. ET and the game can be seen on ABC and ESPN.
The Timberwolves downed a Jalen Brunson-less New York Knicks team on Tuesday night, thanks in part to SG Anthony Edwards who led the way with 38 points in a 115-104 victory. As a not-so-great Christmas gift, they get a match with C Nikola Jokic — but on the plus side for Minny, Denver has dropped two out of three.
Below, we'll preview the game and break down the top Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Christmas Day prediction on PrizePicks for today, including Edwards and Jokic.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards leads Minnesota's formidable roster alongside elite rim protector C Rudy Gobert and versatile F Julius Randle, while Denver counters with their own in threee-time MVP Nikola Jokic, as well as PG Jamal Murray.
The Nuggets will be without PF Aaron Gordon (hamstring), while SF Cameron Johnson is day-to-day after suffering a right knee injury in their 131-130 loss to the Mavericks.
Denver's defensive depth takes a hit without Gordon and Johnson on the perimeter, a notable concern for a team looking to build on its position in the Western Conference heading into the holidays.
The Nuggets come in as 4.5-point favorites, with an over/under set at 239.5 points.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Over/Under, Spread
The Timberwolves enter Thursday’s game as 4.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.27x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Nuggets are the favorites with a 1.58x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Denver Nuggets -4.5
- Over/Under: 239.5
- Game Winner Payout: Timberwolves 3.03x | Nuggets 1.33x
(Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction on Spread
- Denver sports the league's best scoring offense (125.2 PPG) and boasts a +8.7 average point differential, ranking second in the NBA.
- The Nuggets hold an 18-12 ATS record (60.0%), including a 7-6 ATS mark as home favorites, while Minnesota sports a middling 12-18 ATS record (40.0%).
- Denver has covered the spread in three of its last four home games, while Minnesota has failed to cover in two of its last three road contests.
- The Timberwolves' defensive rating sits at 111.9 (fifth-best), and they'll be tested against a Nuggets perimeter attack that averages 14.1 three-pointers made per game, making 40.6% of their threes.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Christmas Day Prediction
Here are two top Timberwolves vs. Nuggets picks to target on Thursday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokic.
Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards vs. Nuggets Projection: 28.5 Points
- Edwards enters tonight's Christmas showdown averaging a career-high 28.7 PPG.
- The Wolves' superstar erupted for 30-plus points in 13 games this year, including five straight to close November and a 38-point dominance against the Knicks on Tuesday.
- In his lone matchup against Denver this season, Edwards dropped 26 points on 8-of-23 shooting to go with 10-for-12 at the free throw line.
- Having just set the franchise record with his 102nd career 30-point performance, Edwards carries momentum into Denver after scoring 38, 44, and 40 points in three of his last six outings.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Timberwolves Projection: 41.5 Pts+Rebs
- The Joker currently averages a massive 42.3 combined points and rebounds per contest.
- Despite Minnesota's elite rim protection, the Timberwolves are surrendering 49.3 points in the paint per game — where Jokic averages 14.8 (second-best in NBA).
- The rebounding disparity is even more stark — Minnesota allows 53.8 RPG (14th worst), while Jokic leads the league with 12.0 RPG.
- His recent head-to-head record against Rudy Gobert exemplifies this gap — 27 points on 53.3% shooting with 12 rebounds against the four-time DPOY.
Make Christmas Day Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Picks on PrizePicks
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