Twelve NBA teams are in action on Friday night, and ESPN presents a doubleheader between conference foes. Out West, it’s the 27-14 Timberwolves and 23-15 Rockets clashing on the hardwood.
Friday’s contest (9:30 p.m. ET) features a pair of teams just 2.5 games apart in the Western Conference standings. As both sides aim to avoid play-in range and earn a marquee win, this outing is critical.
Below, we’ll break down our Timberwolves vs. Rockets prediction and picks for Friday night’s game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Timberwolves vs. Rockets Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
After going 49-33 last season, the Timberwolves once again made it back to the Conference Finals, only to lose to the eventual champion Thunder in five games. This year, their .659 win percentage is even higher, including a 7-3 run in their last 10.
The Rockets surprised many by ripping off 52 wins in 2024-25. Since their lava-hot 10-3 start, though, they’re just 13-12, including 5-5 in their last 10.
Friday marks the 141st regular-season meeting between these franchises. With Houston boasting a commanding 85-55 series lead, Minnesota has a serious hill to climb.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Over/Under, Spread
The Timberwolves enter Friday’s game as 3.5-point road underdogs, returning a 2.27x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Rockets are home favorites with a 1.56x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Houston Rockets -3.5
- Over/Under: 223.5
- Game Winner Payout: Timberwolves 2.27x | Rockets 1.56x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Timberwolves vs. Rockets injury report for Friday, via NBA.com.
Timberwolves Injury Report
- SG Anthony Edwards (foot) – OUT
- F-G Terrence Shannon Jr. (foot, abductor) – OUT
Rockets Injury Report
- F Tari Eason (ankle) – Not listed
- F Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) – Not listed
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Timberwolves vs. Rockets prediction on Friday, January 16.
- The Rockets are just 6-8 against the spread as a home favorite this season, a middle-of-the-park mark leaguewide. The Wolves are 3-3 ATS as road underdogs.
- Minnesota’s offense ranks third in per-game scoring (120.3) and fifth in average scoring margin (+5.8).
- Defensively, the Timberwolves are seventh in fastbreak prevention (14.0 PPG) and 13th in the paint (50.2 PPG). Without Edwards, ironically, they're 8.2 points better on that end per 100 possessions.
- Houston’s offense sits 12th in scoring (117.2 PPG) but 17th in shooting efficiency (1.146).
- On defense, the Rockets stifle opponents, being a top-10 group in fastbreak (13.9 PPG) and paint (48.1 PPG) scoring, in addition to limiting assists (24.2 per game).
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Picks for PrizePicks Today: Friday, January 16
Here are three top Timberwolves vs. Rockets picks to target for Friday, January 16 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by PF Julius Randle, SF Kevin Durant, and C Alperen Sengun.
Timberwolves PF Julius Randle vs. Rockets Projection: 37.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Randle averages 35 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game. That number has remained mostly consistent thus far in 2026 (34.6).
- The 12th-year big man’s 11.8% rebounding rate is the lowest of his career to date.
- Houston yields the lowest per-game fantasy output to the PF position (41.02 points), via FantasyPros.
- Per Add More Funds, in minutes without Edwards, Randle leads Minnesota in usage rate (28.6%). In fairness to him, he maintains a 65.9 true shooting percentage.
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Rockets SF Kevin Durant vs. Timberwolves Projection: 30.5 Pts + Asts
- Durant pours in 30.3 points and assists per night in year No. 18. In his last 10, that number is up to 33.0.
- According to databallr, the Slim Reaper’s 27.5 true shot attempts per 100 and +6.0 relative true shooting percentage are each 92nd-percentile marks.
- The future Hall of Fame man’s usage rate and assist clip are above 26% and 19%, respectively, for the sixth consecutive year since he got back from injury.
- Durant averages 13.7 potential assists per 100 possessions.
Rockets C Alperen Sengun vs. Timberwolves Projection: 28.5 Pts + Rebs
- Sengun amasses 30.5 points and rebounds per game this year. In three games since returning to the lineup, however, that figure is down to 28.4.
- After making a scorching 39.6% of his 3-point tries in October and November, Sengun’s conversion rate is a scary 9.1% in December and January.
- In his fifth season, Sengun’s 14.6% total rebounding clip trails only his rookie campaign (14.5%) as a personal low.
- The Timberwolves allow the seventh-fewest rebounds a night to the C spot (13.52).
Make Timberwolves vs. Rockets Picks on PrizePicks
Timberwolves vs. Rockets picks aren’t the only avenue hoops fans have to getting in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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