Tuesday's 14-game NBA slate is highlighted by a rematch of the NBA Cup semifinal, as the San Antonio Spurs (21-7) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (26-3). The game tips at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The Cup semi had a playoff vibe, highlighted by a scintillating second half in which Spurs C Victor Wembanyama, in his first game back in the lineup after a calf injury, led the Spurs to a 111-109 win.
We'll break down our Thunder vs. Spurs prediction and PrizePicks NBA picks for Tuesday night, including picks for stars, Wembanyama and OKC G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction on Spread
The Thunder and Spurs meet for the second time this year, with San Antonio winning the first matchup 111-109.
Oklahoma comes into the game as 6.5-point favorites, returning a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they cover.
San Antonio is the home underdog, with a 1.78x payout if they cover the 6.5 points, and a 2.77x payout if they win outright.
- Spread: Thunder -6.5
- Over/Under: 234.5 (1.85x on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Thunder 1.4x | Spurs 2.77x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know for Thunder vs. Spurs tonight, including analysis of our prediction for this matchup.
- The Thunder have the NBA's best win/loss record at 26-3, but they struggle to cover the spread, going just 15-13.
- OKC plays the second leg of a back-to-back and are 2-3 ATS (against the spread) when playing with no rest.
- With San Antonio off on Monday, OKC has a rest disadvantage and is 3-6 ATS this season in that scenario.
- The Spurs successfully covered the one game in which they were a home underdog.
- San Antonio has a 8-3-1 record against the spread at home.
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks
Here are three top Thunder vs. Spurs picks to target on Tuesday with PrizePicks player projections.
Spurs C Victor Wembanyama Projection: 27.5 Pts+Rebs
- C Victor Wembanyama scored 22 points and grabbed 9 rebounds in 21 minutes during the 111-109 victory over the Thunder in the NBA Cup semifinal.
- Despite averaging just 21.5 minutes in the five games since returning from his injury, Wemby is averaging 19 points and 9.4 rebounds.
- The Frenchman has more than 27 Pts+Reb in seven of eight home games.
- The Thunder could be without C Isaiah Hartenstein, who missed the Monday night matchup against the Timberwolves with a calf strain.
- Wemby is one of the best defensive rebounders in the league — his 28.9 defensive rebound percentage ranks in the 100th percentile.
Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Projection: 42.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with a 38 PRA in 37 minutes in the 111-109 win in the NBA Cup semifinal, his second-lowest total of the season.
- SGA is highly involved in the team's offense, as his 37.6% of time on the ball ranks in the 89th percentile.
- Gilgeous-Alexander thrives on drawing fouls, with a 7.7% foul-drawing rate on contested shots, ranking in the 86th percentile. However, he shot just 4 free throws in the last matchup against the Spurs, his third-fewest.
- San Antonio ranks fifth in personal fouls drawn per defensive play (17.3%).
- The reigning MVP's 14.3% three-point shooting (1-7) against San Antonio in the NBA Cup semifinal was the third-worst.
- The Spurs allow opponents to shoot 24.8% from behind the arc over their three games, the lowest of any team’s recent three-game span.
Spurs G Stephon Castle Projection: 21.5 Pts+Ast
- Castle is leading the team with 22.4 points per game and 7.2 assists.
- The former UConn guard’s 24 pts+ast in the NBA Cup semifinal against the Thunder exceeded the set total of 20.
- The shifty guard has more than 21 pts+ast in 16 of 19 games this season.
- The reigning Rookie of the Year's passing ability helps his teammates get excellent shot opportunities. Castle’s teammates’ 76% efficient field goal rate on his potential assists is in the 87th percentile.
- Oklahoma City allows an assist on 64% of field goals made against it, ranking 18th.
- Castle’s 21.1 points per 75 possessions ranks in the 82nd percentile.
Make Tuesday NBA Picks on PrizePicks
One of the top matchups from the 14-game slate features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Thunder taking on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs.
In this Western Conference clash, there are plenty of spots to make your NBA picks on PrizePicks. Just predict More or Less on NBA player projections — like SGA's PRA — and win money if you're right.
Check out the Playbook for more PrizePicks NBA picks and analysis all the way through the 2025-26 season.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
