Thunder vs. Rockets Prediction, Spread, Total: January 15, 2026

Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander saves a basketball in an NBA game.
AP Photo/Nate Billings

The Oklahoma City Thunder (34-7) are back on track after a quick two-game slide earlier this month, winning four straight games.

The defending champions travel to the Lone Star State for a Western Conference showdown with the Houston Rockets (23-14).

The Rockets returned home following an 0-3 road trip to top the Bulls, 119-113 on Tuesday, as Houston sits 2.5 games behind San Antonio for first place in the Southwest Division.

Let’s look at the Thunder vs. Rockets prediction, spread, and total for the January 15 showdown at the Toyota Center, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!

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Thunder vs. Rockets Prediction on Spread

Oklahoma City outlasted Houston, 125-124 in double-overtime in the season opener. The Rockets cashed as 6.5-point road underdogs, marking the third straight cover against the Thunder.

Thunder vs. Rockets Over/Under, Spread

The Thunder enter this matchup as 5.5-point favorites, returning a 1.51x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

The Rockets are home underdogs with a 2.43x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

  • Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
  • Over/Under: 223.5
  • Game Winner Payout: Thunder 1.51x | Rockets 2.43x

(Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change)


Thunder vs. Rockets Injury Report

Let’s dive into the full Thunder vs. Rockets injury report for Thursday, via NBA.com.

Thunder Injury Report 

  • G Luguentz Dort (foot): Questionable
  • C Isaiah Hartenstein (calf): OUT

Rockets Injury Report 

  • F Tari Eason (ankle): OUT
  • F Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle): OUT

Thunder vs. Rockets Numbers to Know

Here are some stats to know to get you set for Thunder vs. Rockets tonight, including insights on our Thunder vs. Rockets prediction.

  • Houston has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games, all in the favorite role.
  • Tonight ends a 21-game streak in which the Rockets are favored. Houston knocked off Golden State, 104-100 in their last underdog opportunity on November 26.
  • OKC ended an 0-5 against the spread slump in Tuesday’s 119-98 rout of San Antonio as 8.5-point favorites.
  • The Thunder lead the league in defensive field goal percentage at 43.6%. 
  • These are the top two teams in net rating. The Thunder sit at +12.8 and the Rockets own a +7.3 rating. Houston improved from +4.6 last season, while OKC is nearly the same at +12.7.
  • The Rockets have cooled off from long distance, converting 24% in the last six games. OKC is tied for 27th in defensive 3-point percentage at 37.5%. 

Thunder vs. Rockets NBA Player Picks

Here are three top Thunder vs. Rockets picks to target on Thursday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Rockets F Kevin Durant, and Oklahoma City C/F Chet Holmgren.

Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Rockets Projection: 37.5 Pts+Asts

  • SGA sits second in the league in scoring at 31.9 points per game (PPG), his fourth straight season putting up at least 30 PPG.
  • In the season-opening win over Houston, last season’s MVP racked up 35 points, but hit 1-of-9 from 3-point range.
  • Amazingly, the former Kentucky standout averages exactly 32.0 PPG at home and on the road.
  • The ex-Clipper dished out at least 6 assists in seven straight games prior to racking up 5 assists in Tuesday’s victory over San Antonio.
  • In the last 10 games, SGA has failed to put up more than 38 points and assists seven times.

Rockets F Kevin Durant vs. Thunder Projection: 24.5 Points

  • Durant’s best scoring month as a Rocket is January, when he averages 28.6 PPG in seven outings.
  • It’s been a road-heavy schedule for Houston lately, but Durant topped the 26-point mark in each of his last four home games. 
  • KD hasn’t lit up from deep at Toyota Center as of late, hitting 3-of-17 in the past two victories over the Bulls and Suns.
  • Since mid-December, the two-time NBA champion has bypassed the 25-point mark in 11 of 15 games.

Thunder C/F Chet Holmgren vs. Rockets Projection: 15.5 Points

  • The former Gonzaga star is hitting his stride in his third season, averaging a career-best 17.9 PPG.
  • The second pick of the 2022 draft failed to score in double-digits for the third time in Tuesday’s victory over San Antonio. He managed 8 points on 1-of-4 shooting in 25 minutes.
  • Following the first two instances scoring single-digits, Holmgren was held to 12 and 10 points in the next outing. 
  • In the last four matchups against Houston, the 23-year old topped the 20-point mark three times. He shot 11-of-17 from the floor and compiled 29 points in the double-OT opening night triumph.

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Make Thunder vs. Rockets Picks on NBA on PrizePicks

The Rockets seek revenge for their opening night loss heartbreaking loss at Oklahoma City. Can Houston grab a win in the rare role as a home underdog?

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about the author

Kevin has spent the last 15 years in the sports gambling space. He covered all major sports at VegasInsider both as a writer and handicapper from 2009 until 2024. He has also covered college basketball and MLB for the Action Network.

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