NCAA Tournament 7-10 matchups are usually some of the most competitive first-round games, and Thursday features the No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies (21-11) vs. the No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-5).
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Saint Mary’s is a 2.5-point favorite for tonight’s 7:35 p.m. ET tip-off on truTV.
Below, we’ll break down our Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s prediction on the spread for today’s college basketball projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
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Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Aggies struggled over the last 10 games, with a 4-6 record and 3-7 mark against the spread (ATS). Saint Mary’s is 8-2 outright and ATS in the same split but lost its last game vs. Santa Clara, 76-71, as 4.5-point favorites in the WCC Tournament semifinals.
The two programs last met in the 1995-96 season, with Texas A&M winning 83-55. In the 1994-95 season, the Gaels snagged an 80-68 win over the Aggies.
Despite five consecutive seasons with at least 25 wins, Saint Mary’s has not advanced to the second weekend of NCAA Tournament play since 2010. The Aggies were a second-round exit a season ago and last made the regional semifinals in 2018.
Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s Spread, Over/Under
Saint Mary’s is favored by 2.5 points with a 1.61x payout if it wins, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Texas A&M features a 2.27x payout with an outright win today.
- Spread: Saint Mary’s Gaels -2.5
- Over/Under: 148.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Texas A&M 2.27x | Saint Mary’s 1.61x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/19/26
Saint Mary’s could have a leg up in efficiency, ranked 24th in Bart Torvik’s ratings, while Texas A&M is 40th. This is trending toward a battle of pace, with the Gaels in the 80th percentile for the slowest adjusted tempos and the Aggies in the 94th percentile for the quickest marks.
Furthermore, Saint Mary’s logs a measly 57.5 shots per matchup (38th percentile) — far behind A&M’s 64.5 per-game average (98th percentile). Who could have the advantage for controlling the pace in Thursday’s first-round battle?
The Aggies force 13.6 turnovers per game (90th percentile), but the Gaels take care of the rock with only 10.9 turnovers per contest (66th percentile). Saint Mary’s holds a potential advantage on the glass by ranking in the 97th and 99th percentiles for offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Texas A&M, meanwhile, sits in the 64th and 18th percentiles for the categories.
The 3-point line should hold weight, as the Aggies launch 29.9 triples per game (96th percentile) and sport a 46.3% shot distribution from deep (88th percentile). Once again, the Gaels could have the answer by giving up 6.7 made treys per game (85th percentile), limiting opponents to 31.2% from beyond the arc (89th percentile).
Make Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s Picks on PrizePicks
Saint Mary’s carries a favorable matchup vs. Texas A&M. Who will move on to Saturday’s second round vs. the winner of No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho?
Make your Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s picks and NCAA Tournament predictions at PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
