NFL Wild Card Weekend has certainly lived up to the hype. Can a final showdown between the 12-5 Texans and 10-7 Steelers give this playoff round a proper send-off?
Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC) sees No. 5 Houston hit the road to take on No. 4 Pittsburgh. With the Texans riding a nine-game winning streak and the Steelers having won four of their last five, it could be a thrilling matchup.
Below, we’ll break down our Texans vs. Steelers prediction and Monday Night Football picks to consider on Wild Card Weekend. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right.
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Texans vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Monday marks just the ninth time the Texans and Steelers will square off on the gridiron. Entering Wild Card Weekend, Pittsburgh owns the all-time series 5-3.
On the injury front, the Texans ruled DB Ajani Carter (hamstring) out prior to Monday. S Jaylen Reed (forearm) is questionable. The Steelers are without DT Isaiahh Loudermilk (ankle).
Texans vs. Steelers Over/Under, Spread
The Texans enter Monday’s game as 2.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.58x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Steelers are home underdogs with a 2.22x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Houston Texans -2.5
- Over/Under: 39.5
- Game Winner Payout: Texans 1.58x | Steelers 2.22x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Texans vs. Steelers Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Texans vs. Steelers.
- There wasn’t any against-the-spread gap between these two teams during the regular season. Both sides went 9-8 ATS in 17 games.
- Separation is also difficult to find with home/away splits. Houston is 1-1 ATS as a road favorite; Pittsburgh is 2-2 as a home underdog.
- The Texans’ offense isn’t as bad as its No. 22 EPA per play ranking (via RBSDM) looks. It finished the regular season 13th in total scoring.
- Houston’s dominant defense was top-three in both points and yards allowed per drive.
- Pittsburgh was 16th and 14th in per-drive scoring on offense and defense, respectively, during the regular season.
- Since 2020, head coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are a league-worst 0-4 ATS in playoff games.
Texans vs. Steelers Monday Night Football Picks
Here are three Texans vs. Steelers picks for Monday Night Football to end Wild Card Weekend. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QBs C.J. Stroud and Aaron Rodgers and TE Dalton Schultz.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Steelers Projection: 247.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- Stroud averaged 232.1 combined passing and rushing yards during the regular season. Since he returned to the lineup in Week 13, that number is 226.5.
- Per Sharp Football Analysis, Pittsburgh was 14th in yards per pass attempt with pressure (5.8) in the second half of the season. In the same span, Stroud ranked 20th in that category (6.0).
- Houston owns a -1.0% pass rate over expected, via nfelo.
- The third-year signal-caller logged 5 or fewer rushing yards in five of his last six games.
- Pittsburgh has surrendered the ninth-fewest rushing yards to QBs (260) this year.
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Texans TE Dalton Schultz vs. Steelers Projection: 34.5 Rec Yards
- Schultz averages 45.7 receiving yards per game, including 46.7 in his last six.
- According to SumerSports, among TEs with 250+ routes run, Schultz’s 77.36% catch rate is good for fourth.
- Entering Week 18, the veteran pass catcher had the second-most receptions and third-most yards for a TE on short-range targets, via NFL Pro.
- The Steelers yielded the fourth-most receptions (106), TDs (11), and fifth-most yards (1,121) to the TE position.
Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Texans Projection: 207.5 Pass Yards
- Rodgers amassed just 207.6 passing yards per game in 16 regular-season starts, the lowest full-season total of his illustrious career.
- A staggering 71.5% of Rodgers’ attempts are below 10 air yards. That’s the highest of any QB in the last three years, via NFL Pro, and the Texans allow a league-low 5.0 yards per try on those passes.
- While solid for a 42-year-old, Rodgers is no longer a great player. Per SumerSports, among QBs with 100+ plays, he’s 18th in pass EPA accumulated.
- Houston boasts the NFL’s top pass defense, leading the sport in EPA per throw ceded.
Make Texans vs. Steelers Wild Card Picks on PrizePicks
When Houston and Pittsburgh duke it out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Texans vs. Steelers Monday Night Football picks.
You can make your NFL picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
