The SEC’s college football dominance comes from the fact that every weekend offers multiple marquee matchups. One of those games in Week 8 features No. 11 Tennessee heading to Tuscaloosa, Ala. to face No. 6 Alabama on Saturday.
Below, we’ll break down our Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction, picks for Saturday night, plus the top CFB DFS PrizePicks player picks, with the matchup set to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
This game features Heisman candidate QB Ty Simpson and Tennesse QB Joey Aguilar, two of the top quarterbacks in the conference, as they are the top two passing yard leaders. A win and an excellent performance could propel one of them into the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy.
No. 11 Tennessee has dropped just one game — an overtime loss to Georgia — but the Volunteers haven't won in Tuscaloosa since 2023 — a 5OT win. Meanwhile, after losing to Florida State to start the year, Alabama is rolling, with three-straight wins vs. ranked opponents, including two on the road.
Let's dive into the Tennessee vs. Alabama matchup on Saturday night to give you a prediction and picks.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Prediction, Preview for College Football Week 8
Below, we’ll preview Tennessee vs. Alabama as they prepare for their Saturday night matchup, including key stats on both sides.
Alabama Preview vs. Tennessee
- After a Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama has won five straight, including three consecutive wins against a ranked opponent.
- The Crimson Tide have been up and down in the AP Poll from No. 6 to No. 19, and then back to No. 6.
- A large reason for this surge is Simpson emerging as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He’s been stellar, as he ranks seventh in EPA per dropback (0.37) and has the fourth-most passing TDs (16).
- Alabama'a defense has been underwhelming, ranking #42 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.
- The Tide now get a rough test vs. Tennessee's No. 4 ranked passing offense in EPA per game (0.34).
- Alabama’s defense is solid overall, but it isn’t unstoppable. In the three games against SEC opponents, they have allowed more than 20 points in two of them.
- Alabama has not played a QB ranked as high as Joey Aguilar in EPA/dropback (5th, 0.40), though they did hold Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia in check, as he completed just60% of his passes and threw for 198 yards, putting up 14 points.
- That game was also in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama has given up just 28 points total in three games this season.
- In defensive EPA/game, the Tide rank just No. 50, though some could be attributed to the tough schedule.
Tennessee Preview vs. Alabama
- This could be a make-or-break game for Tennessee as far as the College Football Playoff goes.
- After the Crimson Tide, the Vols won't face any of the current undefeated teams in the conference. A loss to Alabama and Georgia would make it very difficult to get to the SEC Championship.
- The departure of QB Nico Iamaleava might have improved the Volunteers. QB Joey Aguilar’s 280.0 passing yards per game is 79 more than Iamaleava's in 2024, and the 43.5 points per game is 11 more than last year.
- Somehow, in Week 8, Tennessee has played just one road game this year. In that game at Mississippi State (51st in EPA/play)
- A significant reason why Tennessee has scored the third-most points per game is likely to compensate for the struggling defense. That unit has underperformed, ranking 98th in net EPA per play (0.08), and they’ve allowed 30 or more points in all three of their SEC matchups.
- They now face an Alabama team that has put up an average of 34 points per game in two home FBS games this year.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Picks for CFB DFS, PrizePicks
Here are three of the top Tennessee vs. Alabama picks to consider for Saturday's college football matchup. Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar and Alabama QB Ty Simpson make up the top PrizePicks college football picks to target.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson vs. Tennesssee Projection: 288.5 Passing Yards
- Ty Simpson has more than 288 passing yards in one of three games against an SEC opponent.
- The junior’s 16:1 TD:INT ratio is the best in college football.
- Tennessee is 72nd in opponent interceptions thrown percentage (2.17).
- Alabama leads the FBS in EPA per dropback (0.356).
- The Volunteers rank 30th in defensive EPA per dropback (-0.108)
- Simpson’s 94.9 PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ yards is seventh.
- The Vols have allowed the sixth-most completions of 20+ yards (25).
Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar Projection: 235.5 Passing Yards
- Joey Aguilar has more than 235 passing yards in two of three games against SEC opponents.
- The Appalachian State transfer’s 1,680 passing yards lead all SEC quarterbacks.
- Aguilar leads the nation with 1,257 passing yards and is second with 10 passing TDs on play action.
- The Crimson Tide has allowed the fourth-fewest completions of 20+ yards (9).
- Aguilar’s 2.7% interception rate ranks 94th.
- Alabama is seventh in opponents’ interception percentage (5.2%).
- Alabama has not allowed a QB to pass for more than 200 yards this season, though Aguilar does have the best numbers of any QB the Tide have faced yet.
Tennessee WR Chris Brazzell II Projection: 4.5 Receptions
- Chris Brazzell II has more than 4 receptions in five of his last six games.
- Alabama has allowed a pass catcher to have more than 4 catches just once in six games this year.
- The Crimson Tide ranks 14th in completions per game allowed per game (24.5).
- The Tulane transfer will likely line up against Alabama CB Domani Jones, who has not allowed more than 3 receptions in any game this season.
- Brazzell has emerged as a top WR in the country, but this is the toughest pass defense he's faced; the Tide are 31st in yards/dropback allowed. The next best the Vols have faced is Georgia's 51st ranked defense in the same stat.
- Brazzell had 6 catches in that game.
- He's also coming off a 1-reception game vs. Arkansas.
Make Tennessee vs. Alabama Predictions, Picks on PrizePicks
Alabama will put its undefeated conference record on the line as it hosts Tennessee, which has scored at least 30 points in every game this season. However, the Tide have been shutdown on defense at home this year, and explosive on offense behind Heisman candidate QB Ty Simpson.
This Saturday’s ranked SEC matchup is a perfect chance to make CFB picks on PrizePicks to win real money.
Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their weekly stat projections, and cash in if your picks are correct.
Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the CFB season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and CFB DFS Lineups.
