The NCAA Tournament Round of 16 continues on Friday night. No. 6 seed Tennessee, fresh off an upset of No. 3 seed Virginia, takes on No. 2 seed Iowa State in a Midwest regional semifinal in Chicago.
The winner of this 10:10 p.m. ET contest on TBS and truTV advances to the Round of 8 on Sunday.
Below, we’ll break down our Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction and picks for Friday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Tennessee vs. Iowa State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Volunteers have had many highs and lows in the 2025-26 season. They started off 7-0, including a win over third-ranked Houston, but then lost three straight.
Tennessee finished the non-conference schedule 10-3 and had two four-game winning streaks in the middle of SEC play before finishing the season with losses in four of six games to fall to a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
In the tourney, the Volunteers have had two big wins, blowing out one-loss Miami of Ohio in the first round and then upsetting No. 3 Virginia last Sunday. They're in the Round of 16 for the third consecutive year and aim to advance once again.
Iowa State sent No. 15 Tennessee State packing with a 34-point victory in the first round, then, after a slow start, blew out No. 7 Kentucky in the second round. The Cyclones finished third in the Big 12 overall, behind two of the top five teams in the nation in Arizona and Houston.
Iowa State completed non-conference play undefeated, and five of the Cyclones' seven losses were to ranked teams. They have wins over St. John’s (a 5-seed), Purdue (a 2-seed), Houston (a 2-seed), and Kansas (a 4-seed).
The Cyclones are in the Round of 16 for the second time in three years. Star forward Joshua Jefferson's status is still up in the air after suffering an ankle injury early in the first-round game. He didn't play vs. Kentucky.
Tennessee vs. Iowa State Spread, Over/Under
Iowa State enters Friday's game as 3.5-point favorites, with a 1.53 payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Tennessee is the underdog with a 2.5x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Iowa State -3.5 (1.85x payout)
- Over/Under: 138.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Iowa State 1.53x | Tennessee 2.5x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Tennessee vs. Iowa State Prediction on Spread – 3/27/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament Tennessee vs. Iowa State college basketball prediction on the spread for Friday, March 27 on PrizePicks.
- Tennessee is 16-18-1 against the spread but has covered in three of the last four games, including both tournament games.
- As an underdog, the Volunteers are an SEC-best 3-1 ATS, winning outright vs. Houston, Alabama, and Vanderbilt — all tournament teams. The lone non-cover was a loss to Florida.
- Per KenPom, Tennessee is rated 14th in the country with an offensive rating of 121.6 (31st) and a defensive rating of 94.7 (14th).
- The Tennessee defense is first in the SEC (55th in the country), holding opponents to 69.1 points per game.
- Iowa State is 22-13-1 ATS including covers in each of the last six games. The Cyclones were second in the Big 12 as favorites, going 20-12-1 ATS.
- KenPom grades Iowa State seventh in the country, including an offensive rating of 124.2 (17th) and a defensive rating of 91.3 (fifth).
- The Cyclones' defense has held opponents to 65.3 PPG, 12th-best in the country.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make Tennessee vs. Iowa State Picks on PrizePicks
Can Tennessee pull off the upset and advance to the Round of 8 for the third straight year, or will Iowa State live up to its expectations and move one step closer to a first title?
You can make your Tennessee vs. Iowa State picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
