The Detroit Lions (8-6) have virtually no room for error in the final three weeks of the regular season, sitting 1.5 games behind the final wild card spot in the NFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) hold the same record, yet they currently project for a playoff spot thanks to a lead in the AFC North.
Both teams are in a must-win situation for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, televised by CBS. The Ravens (7-7) sit only one game behind the Steelers in the division standings, and a loss may put Detroit’s playoff hopes on life support.
What can we expect from one of Sunday’s best matchups in Week 16? Let’s make a Steelers vs. Lions prediction and picks, including player projections at PrizePicks.
Steelers vs. Lions Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Pittsburgh is the favorite with a 1.66x payout to win the AFC North. The Lions carry a 2.63x payout to earn a playoff berth, compared to the Steelers’ 1.61x payout to make the playoffs.
Which team may inch closer to the playoffs with a win on Sunday?
Steelers vs. Lions Over/Under, Spread
Detroit is a hefty 6.5-point home favorite, rewarding a 1.75x payout with a cover. PrizePicks Team Picks hints at a positive scoring environment, backed by the 52.5 total. The Lions have a 1.29x payout to win outright.
With a 3.33x payout to win outright, might Pittsburgh make noise as a road underdog?
- Spread: Detroit Lions -6.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Game Winner Payout: Steelers 3.33x | Lions 1.29x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Steelers vs. Lions Prediction on Total
Considering both teams sit at 8-6, Sunday’s 6.5-point spread may come off as an initial surprise. However, the numbers suggest this comes with sound reasoning. Statistically, Detroit is the better team in almost every measure.
SumerSports ranks the Lions fourth in total expected points added (EPA) on offense (0.11), while the Steelers carry 0.02 total EPA (tied for 12th). Even on defense, Detroit is a step ahead, giving up -0.02 EPA/play (T-13th) compared to Pittsburgh’s 0.01 (T-18th).
The Lions carry a major advantage on offense, totaling 6.2 yards per play (second). At 5.2 yards per play (21st), the Steelers may have a tough time keeping pace.
Pittsburgh’s angle to points could be through the air, as Detroit allows 7.5 yards per pass (27th). The Steelers post 6.9 yards per passing attempt (19th) compared to 3.9 yards per carry (28th). Furthermore, the AFC North’s leader produces 0.03 EPA per dropback (15th).
Detroit is still dealing with a mile-long injury report, with S Kerby Joseph (knee) out and CB Amik Robertson (hand) questionable. S Brian Branch (Achilles) is out for the season, as well. Three of the Lions' starting offensive linemen — LT Taylor Decker (shoulder), LG Christian Mahogany (leg), and C Graham Glasgow (knee) — are questionable.
Against the run, Pittsburgh cedes 0.02 EPA (25th) and 4.4 yards (18th) per attempt. Running the rock remains the Lions’ bread and butter at 4.9 yards per carry.
Steelers vs. Lions Picks for Week 16
Which player projections at PrizePicks stand out? Let’s circle a pair of players who could turn in big performances on Sunday.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Steelers Projection: 72.5 Rushing Yards
- Through 14 games, Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs averages 78.6 rushing yards.
- According to PlayerProfiler, the former first-round pick touts an elite 5.5 yards per attempt and 6.1 yards per touch (third).
- Pittsburgh surrenders 120.9 rushing yards per game (19th), and it’s allowed over 200 rushing yards in two of the last three outings.
- Pro Football Reference credits the Steelers with allowing 1,437 rushing yards against RBs (23rd).
Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell vs. Lions Projection: 4.5 Receptions
- After posting a 42.9% snap share from Week 1 to 9, Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell has a 52.0% snap rate over the previous six games.
- PlayerProfiler has Gainwell with a 16.2% target share (fifth among RBs) and 1.53 yards per route run (ninth).
- Since Week 11, the veteran tailback has enjoyed a ton of work in the receiving game with 6.2 targets and 5.6 receptions per game.
- Gainwell has reached 6 catches in four of his previous five games.
Make Steelers vs. Lions Picks on PrizePicks
Will the Steelers add to their AFC North lead, or will the Lions take one step closer to a Wild Card berth? A high-scoring affair could be ahead with each offense holding favorable matchups. How does this translate to picking stat projections at PrizePicks?
Make your predictions on Steelers vs. Lions for a chance to earn real-money rewards if you’re right. Just pick players and predict More or Less on their projected stats.
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