If you haven’t drafted your season-long fantasy football team, the clock has about 24 hours remaining, as the Patriots vs. Seahawks kick off the 2026 season on Wednesday, September 9.
Most managers already entered the war room and meticulously selected their 2026 fantasy squad. If you’re sane like the rest of us, you’re fully prepared and locked in for Week 1, and that means undergoing the endless debate of who to start or sit.
The Playbook has you covered with our weekly Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em all season long. Following last week’s early edition, our official Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em for NFL Week 1 has arrived.
We’ll cover two players in each position group, breaking down who deserves to make your lineup and which players have a deflating matchup with underwhelming projections on PrizePicks.
Make NFL picks for Week 1 on PrizePicks!
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em, NFL Week 1
We’ll cover the good and bad for each major position group for full-PPR leagues, including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Here’s who you should start and who should warm the bench for this week’s edition of Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks
A pair of former MVP quarterbacks headline Week 1’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em debate. Here’s why Rams QB Matthew Stafford should start, while Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes generates hesitation vs. an elite Broncos defense.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford: Start ‘Em
Game: 49ers vs. Rams – Thursday, September 10, 8:35 p.m. ET
Projections via PrizePicks: 266.5 Pass Yards, 1.5 Pass TDs (Goblin), 34.5 Pass Attempts
Due to a lack of rushing potential, QB Matthew Stafford often goes overlooked in the fantasy football world. However, this 38-year-old field general comes off an MVP award and 21.1 fantasy points per game (QB4).
Various advanced numbers check boxes, too, including Stafford’s 0.252 adjusted EPA per play (fourth) and 53.5% success rate (third) from the 2025 season, via RBSDM. Frankly, I’m a little confused why Stafford’s average draft position (ADP) is QB12, per FantasyPros.
The Rams remain an example of consistency under head coach Sean McVay, meaning Los Angeles’ 57.7% pass-play rate (13th) and 7.9 yards per passing attempt (fifth) from last season are probably here to stay.
Carrying a solid workload, Stafford will likely be throwing to WR Puka Nacua on Thursday night, as reports continue to suggest Nacua may dodge any suspension this season. The veteran QB should enjoy a full complement of weapons against a 49ers team that continues to battle injuries.
San Francisco CB Renardo Green has a hamstring injury but returned to practice on Sunday. EDGE Nick Bosa is returning from a torn ACL and seems on track to play on Thursday night, though a limited role could be ahead following a major injury.
If Bosa is consistently off the field, the Niners’ 29% pass rush win rate (29th) from 2025 is likely to resurface, per ESPN. The secondary isn’t inspiring much confidence — which yielded 0.154 EPA per dropback (25th) a year ago.
According to Football Database, the 49ers gave up 20.4 FPPG to QBs in 2025 (12th-most), putting Stafford in Start 'em territory.
Add Matthew Stafford to your PrizePicks lineup for Week 1’s action.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Sit ‘Em
Game: Broncos vs. Chiefs – Monday, September 14, 8:15 p.m. ET
Projections via PrizePicks: 227.5 Pass Yards, 1.5 Pass TDs, 16.5 Fantasy Score
QB Patrick Mahomes could be a bargain as the season progresses, backed by his 21.2 FPPG (QB2) from last season compared to 2026’s QB13 ADP. However, the Broncos likely have something to say about fantasy value in Week 1.
Denver is a QB’s nightmare, point blank, period. The Broncos ceded only 18.5 PPG (fourth), 4.5 yards per play (first), -0.058 EPA per play (eighth), and a measly 38.5% dropback success rate (first) last season.
As if those numbers weren’t enough, Denver boasted a 45% pass rush win rate (third) and a 10.43% sack rate (first). Opposing QBs posted only 15.5 FPPG (eighth-fewest) against the Broncos defense in 2025.
Mahomes’ quick turnaround from a torn ACL is mind-boggling, with a Week 1 return looking more and more likely. But, after the Chiefs gave up a 7.45% sack rate (21st) a year ago, Kansas City could look to protect Mahomes more than usual.
The Chiefs also signed RB Kenneth Walker III, meaning 2025’s lowly 40.5% rush-play rate (27th) could be on the rise.
With a tough matchup ahead, don’t hit the panic button if Mahomes logs a deflating fantasy point total in Week 1.
Make Patrick Mahomes picks on PrizePicks now!
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Running Backs
Injuries are already impacting who to start and sit for running backs. The Saints’ depth looks thin, adding intrigue to RB Travis Etienne Jr., while Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love’s ankle injury is a clear concern.
Saints RB Travis Etienne Jr.: Start ‘Em
Game: Saints vs. Lions – Sunday, September 13, 1:00 p.m. ET
Projections via PrizePicks: 56.5 Rush Yards, 1.5 Player TDs (Demon), 13.5 Fantasy Score
Volume is king when it comes to running backs in fantasy football, and no player could have it better than Travis Etienne Jr. in Week 1.
The Saints’ backfield has quickly developed into a hospital, as RB Alvin Kamara (knee) and RB Keandre Miller (undisclosed) are in danger of missing Week 1. Etienne is already expected to take on a solid workload in 2026, but that could be massive vs. the Lions on Sunday.
Detroit’s defense gave up plenty of scoring opportunities by allowing 24.3 PPG (22nd) last season. In the Lions’ defense, they did deal with injuries, but most of those were in the secondary. The front seven is nearly identical to the 2025 season, in which Detroit ceded -0.037 EPA per rushing attempt (23rd).
Furthermore, the Lions’ front seven turned in an alarming 28% run stop win rate (29th), leading to opponents logging 4.4 yards per rushing attempt (22nd).
Etienne carried solid efficiency last season, backed by 46 forced missed tackles (13th) and 26 explosive (10+ yards) runs (12th), via Pro Football Focus. His 4.3 yards per carry was also Etienne’s highest mark since 5.1 in his 2022 rookie campaign.
After tallying a solid 14.9 FPPG (RB14) a season ago, Etienne could sustain that success with a healthy role in New Orleans.
Predict More or Less for Travis Etienne’s rush yards projection on PrizePicks!
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love: Sit ‘Em
Game: Cardinals vs. Chargers – Sunday, September 13, 4:25 p.m. ET
Before you spend far too much time contemplating, the injury report may solve this start/sit debate. Jeremiyah Love’s Week 1 status is firmly in doubt, with Mike Garafolo of NFL Network stating Love could be "50-50" for Sunday.
If Love does suit up, starting the first-round rookie would be like playing with fire. It’s his first game in the NFL, Love suffered a high ankle sprain only a few weeks ago, and he’s facing a Chargers team that allowed 19.8 PPG (eighth) in 2025.
Los Angeles even gave up only 17.1 FPPG against running backs (second-fewest) last season. That was aided by surrendering only 0.9 rushing TDs per game (13th).
Meanwhile, the Cardinals feature an offense led by QB Jacoby Brissett and return several key starters from a unit that posted -0.014 EPA per play (23rd) last year. Scoring opportunities will likely be limited, and Love making an early return from a high ankle sprain may mean limited snaps.
Make Jeremiyah Love picks on PrizePicks now!
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers
Bears WR Luther Burden III continues to fuel buzz ahead of Week 1, but the same cannot be said for Steelers WR Michael Pittman Jr. with a change of scenery.
Bears WR Luther Burden III: Start ‘Em
Game: Bears vs. Panthers – Sunday, September 13, 1:00 p.m. ET
Projections via PrizePicks: 55.5 Receiving Yards, 0.5 Player TDs (Demon), 12.5 Fantasy Score
All aboard the WR Luther Burden III hype train.
It began with Burden posting 6.5 targets, 5.3 catches, 81.0 receiving yards, and 15.2 fantasy points per game over his final four games in his 2025 rookie season. That’s rolled over throughout the offseason, with head coach Ben Johnson stating he’s buying his stock.
Paired with Burden’s steady climb, Bears WR Rome Odunze continued to miss practice with a leg injury on Monday. Remember, WR DJ Moore is now with the Bills; if Odunze is also out, Burden may have a boatload of targets coming his way.
Furthermore, his Week 1 matchup against the Panthers isn’t too shabby. Carolina allowed 7.2 yards per passing attempt (21st), 0.125 EPA per dropback (24th), and a 47.9% dropback success rate (20th) in the 2025 season.
QB Caleb Williams had a healthy 8.5 average depth of target (aDOT) last season, which finished eighth. Burden showcased his ability to generate big plays by posting a 123.1 passer rating when targeted (fourth), 7.3 yards after catch per reception (third), and 93.3 and 99.5 receiving grades when targeted on 10-to-19-yard and 20+ yard throws.
Add Luther Burden III to your PrizePicks lineup for Week 1’s action.
Steeler WR Michael Pittman Jr.: Sit ‘Em
Game: Falcons vs. Steelers – Sunday, September 13, 1:00 p.m. ET
Projections via PrizePicks: 39.5 Receiving Yards, 4 Receptions, 10 Fantasy Score
The Steelers offense as a whole could be like watching paint dry in the 2026 season. Low air yards have been a staple in Pittsburgh for years, including last year’s 6.5 yards per passing attempt (26th).
Adding to that worry, QB Aaron Rodgers was uninspiring, recording 0.077 EPA per play (22nd) and a 43.8% success rate (28th) a year ago.
Head coach Mike McCarthy is expected to call the plays this season. From 2020 to 2024, the Cowboys ran slant routes on 6.8% of their plays, which was the second-highest rate in that split, via ESPN. That suggests Pittsburgh will still focus on getting the ball out fast, limiting the offense’s yards per attempt.
That fits Michael Pittman Jr.’s skillset, backed by 9.8 yards per reception (71st) and an 8.4 aDOT (68th) in the 2025 season. While he enjoyed 80 receptions (12th) and 111 targets (21st) as a Colt last year, we can’t ignore WR DK Metcalf likely digging into that volume.
Metcalf had a 42.9% deep target share (10th) and a 20.0% red zone target share (33rd) in 2025, and that could eliminate valuable targets for Pittman.
The Falcons are likely in store for a weak 2026 campaign, but they weren’t that bad against the pass a season ago, holding opponents to 0.032 EPA per dropback (13th).
This sit mostly focuses on Pittman’s season-long fantasy stock. His 11.9 FPPG (WR30) from 2025 was already disappointing, and now Pittman will likely take a backseat to Metcalf on an offense lacking opportunities.
Pick More or Less for Michael Pittman’s receiving yard projection on PrizePicks for Week 1.
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Tight Ends
Our circled tight ends are featured in Week 1’s primetime spotlight, beginning with Patriots TE Hunter Henry in 2026’s season-opening game on Wednesday, followed by Giants TE Isaiah Likely facing off with the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Giants TE Isaiah Likely: Start ‘Em
Game: Cowboys vs. Giants – Sunday, September 13, 8:20 p.m. ET
Projections via PrizePicks: 34.5 Receiving Yards, 4.5 Receiving Targets, 8.5 Fantasy Score
Isaiah Likely was a major offseason acquisition for the Giants, and that may lead to high volume for fantasy football. Throughout training camp, Likely was consistently tabbed as QB Jaxson Dart’s favorite target.
However, this was without WR Malik Nabers fully active. New York released WR Darius Slayton on Monday, boding well for Nabers to return from injury in Week 1.
However, Nabers could see limited snaps coming off a torn ACL. Slayton’s cut also solidifies hype around third-round rookie WR Malachi Fields, but the lights may be bright for a rookie debuting vs. the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Regardless, Likely figures to be a major piece of this offense in 2026, and that could be even more of the case in Week 1. Dallas gave up 26.8 FPGG to QBs (the most), 8.1 yards per passing attempt (second-most), and 0.239 EPA per dropback (third-most) last season, suggesting a positive environment for Dart.
The Cowboys’ defense may improve this season, but there’s plenty of unknown in their safety and linebacker rooms with the additions of rookie S Caleb Downs, rookie LB Jaishawn Barham, and LB Dee Winters. Don’t be surprised if this new-look group stumbles to defend a versatile Likely.
Make Isaiah Likely picks on PrizePicks now!
Patriots TE Hunter Henry: Sit ‘Em
Game: Patriots vs. Seahawks – Wednesday, September 9, 8:20 p.m. ET
Projections via PrizePicks: 45.5 Receiving Yards, 4 Receptions, 10.5 Fantasy Score
We featured QB Drake Maye as a sit for our early edition of Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em, and that has exposure to Hunter Henry.
Maye opens the season against the Seahawks, who allowed only -0.065 EPA per dropback (fifth), a 42.2% dropback success rate (fourth), and 6.3 yards per passing attempt (second) last season. Seattle returns key pieces from one of the league’s best defenses, adding weight to the elite numbers.
In Super Bowl LX, Henry logged only 3 receptions for 31 receiving yards, and that was with Maye attempting 43 passes for 295 passing yards and 2 TDs. Now, targets could be more difficult to come by for Henry, with WRs A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs joining in the offseason.
Touchdowns are like gold for fantasy tight ends, and Brown recorded 11, 7, 7, and 7 receiving TDs over his previous four seasons. He’s truly one of the most dangerous red zone wideouts in the NFL, further backed by 2025’s 28.9% red zone target share (eighth).
Points are a rarity vs. the Seahawks, as the unit gave up only 16.9 PPG (the fewest) last season and held the Pats to 13 points in Super Bowl LX. If Brown is hogging red zone targets, Henry’s fantasy stock is plummeting for Week 1.
Add Hunter Henry to your PrizePicks lineup for Week 1’s action.
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Turn Your Fantasy Football Takes to NFL Picks on PrizePicks
Primetime games are front and center for fantasy football in Week 1, including Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Isaiah Likely, and Hunter Henry all drawing attention in the start-or-sit debate. Plus, injuries are already impacting potential roles, as Travis Etienne Jr. and Luther Burden III could be reaping the rewards.
Before the NFL begins, get in on the fun with PrizePicks NFLSZN projections. Pick 2-6 players, make predictions on their stats, and lock in your fantasy football squad on PrizePicks. Plus, you can pick game winners to earn real money all season long with PrizePicks!
As we head into the NFL season, stay locked in Playbook for weekly NFL start/sit advice, waiver wire analysis, and game picks.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
