We have an in-state battle in the Sunshine State as the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes host No. 18 South Florida Bulls — the biggest surprise of the 2025 college football season — at 4:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
We'll break down our USF vs. Miami prediction and picks for Saturday's afternoon showdown to get you ready for this aftternoon matchup, including player picks for PrizePicks' real money college football game.
This is a season-defining game for South Florida. If the Bulls want to be the Group of Five program to make the Playoffs, another signature win would nearly lock them into that spot after wins over ranked Boise State and Florida.
Miami, led by QB Carson Beck, is coming in after the closest thing it can get to a bye week — a 45-3 stopping of Bethune-Cookman.
Let's get into our USF vs. Miami prediction and picks for PrizePicks.
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No. 18 USF vs. No. 5 Miami Prediction, Preview: CFB Week 3
The last time these teams faced off was last year — 50-15 win for Miami in one of the only games that USF QB Byrum Brown played in before breaking his leg.
The Bulls started the year 2-0 for the first time since 2018, now ranked No. 18 after winning two road games against ranked teams — No. 25 Boise State and No. 13 Florida. Despite their two wins, it's a tough turnaround for America's darling after two dramatic wins.
Miami is off to their second straight 2-0 start and faces their final non-Power Four opponent of the regular season. The Hurricanes look like the favorite in the ACC with Beck under-center.
While USF comes after two huge games, Miami will follow the USF game with two more massive in-state matchups: Florida next week, a bye, then a game in Tallahassee vs. No. 10 Florida State.
Miami Preview
The Hurricanes are off to a great start and already have a signature win by defeating last year’s College Football Playoff runner-up Notre Dame in Week 1.
They went to the transfer portal the previous season to acquire their starting quarterback, former Washington State QB Cam Ward, and went again for Beck as Ward headed to the NFL.
It’s been a strong start for Beck, who has thrown for 472 yards and 4 TDs in the first two games.
On defense, this team has made huge strides with the pass rush. The Hurricanes have sacked their opponents on 9.09% (29th) of plays this year, a significant improvement from 7.18% (44th) last year. Their secondary appears to be the weak link, as they are allowing 11.7 yards per completion (77th).
USF Preview
Miami's secondary could have a problem against QB Byrum Brown, whose 9 completions of 20+ yards are the eighth most in college football this season. Brown’s dual-threat ability has been making opponents look unprepared as he’s been able to throw for 473 yards but also rush for 109.
Like Miami, USF will be aggressive on the defensive front. Last week against Florida, the Bulls only had 1 sack, but they also racked up 7 tackles for loss, including a safety.
They will do their best to disrupt the Miami offense and keep them from creating big plays.
USF vs. Miami Picks for CFB DFS
Here are the top USF vs. Miami picks and player projections to target on PrizePicks for this Week 3 showdown, including Joey Aguilar and Zachariah Branch.
Miami QB Carson Beck Projection: 282.5 Passing Yards
After a disappointing 2024 season with Georgia, where he threw 12 interceptions, Beck is thriving in his new environment to start 2025.
The passing stats aren’t eye-opening with 472 passing yards (49th) and 4 TDs, but the way he’s commanding the offense is what is getting him early Heisman consideration.
The accuracy has been phenomenal, with a 76.4% completion rate (7th best). Last week against Bethune-Cookman, Beck put his name into Miami’s history books as his 15-consecutive completions beat the record set by Vinny Testaverde in 1986 (14), the year he won the Heisman Trophy.
Just because he doesn’t have the big passing numbers this year doesn’t mean he can’t unleash it; Beck has passed for over 283 yards in 14-of-28 games where he’s thrown a minimum of 20 passes.
Miami WR Malachi Toney Projection: 70.5 Receiving Yards
The true freshman Malachi Toney is only 17 years old, but he’s playing like a veteran. Dominantly lined up as a slot receiver on 94.0% of snaps, he excels after the catch with 8.8 yards this season.
Toney can be a game-changer because he can turn a quick slant into a big play, changing the momentum of a possession for Miami.
Toney has six catches and 80+ yards in first of his two games this season, and he seems to be a reliable target for Beck. Toney leads the team with 17 targets — 7 more than the next WR on Miami — and 50 pass snaps.
For a team that has won two games vs. ranked opponents, South Florida's pass defense is incredibly vulnerable — and the stats are revealing. The Bulls rank 11th out of 134 teams in yards allowed per dropback, at 7.39 yards, and 79th in pass success rate allowed at 42.3%
USF QB Byrum Brown Projection: 245 Pass+Rush Yards
We mentioned that Beck is a potential Heisman candidate; but if Brown and the Bulls can replicate their performance from last week and beat another top-15 team on the road, then Brown could put his hat in the ring.
Coming off a season-ending injury, in each win, Brown has shown off his dual-threat ability, and especially against Florida, where he had 329 Pass+Rush yards. In that win, he consistently eluded the pass rush, bought time, and found open receivers.
Best of all, Brown only has one turnover-worthy play to his name, according to PFF. If he can continue to take care of the ball, he can keep the Bulls in this game.
The Miami front seven will need their endurance to try to contain Brown. The Hurricanes struggled against Notre Dame QB CJ Carr, who threw for 221 yards, was able to convert on third down using his legs, and had a rushing touchdown.
USF WR Keshaun Singleton Projection: 48.5 Receiving Yards
Brown’s ability to extend plays with his legs and precise passing has led South Florida to big passing gains. USF has three players averaging 20+ yards per reception, including Singleton with 24.0.
Singleton is second on the team in pass snaps this season (60), with four targets per game over the first two games.
The 6-foot-3 WR had a big moment in the win against Florida, where he and Brown connected for a 66-yard TD in the 3rd quarter to give the Bulls their first lead. He also had a 45-yard reception against Boise State — so it's clear that Brown trusts him as a deep threat.
Miami has already given up four passing plays of 20+ yards in two games — so it could be an area to expose.
Make USF vs. Miami Picks on PrizePicks
South Florida will look to do the impossible with its third straight upset victory vs. a ranked opponent, while Miami looks to stay on track and win their third consecutive game.
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Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the CFB season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and CFB DFS Lineups.
