The “Too Little, Too Late” Bowl takes place in Atlanta on Sunday as both the Saints and Falcons caught fire after getting eliminated from playoff contention.
New Orleans (6-10) won only one of its first nine games, but are riding a four-game hot streak with rookie QB Tyler Shough. The Saints will be without top WR Chris Olave, who is sidelined with a blood clot found in his lung. Olave racked up a career-high 1,163 yards, marking his third 1,000+ yard season.
Atlanta (7-9) dropped seven of eight contests between October and December. However, the Falcons managed three consecutive victories, capped off by a Monday night home underdog triumph over the Rams, 27-24.
Let’s look at the Saints vs. Falcons prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFC South battle at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Saints vs. Falcons Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
New Orleans produced an 8-8 mark against the spread, while Atlanta compiled an 8-7-1 spread record.
Saints vs. Falcons Over/Under, Spread
The Falcons enter this matchup as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.49x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Saints are road underdogs with a 2.43x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Atlanta Falcons -3.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Game Winner Payout: Saints 2.43x | Falcons 1.49x
(Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change)
Saints vs. Falcons Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Saints vs. Falcons this afternoon, including insights on our Saints vs. Falcons prediction.
- In the first matchup in Week 12 at the Superdome, the Falcons took care of the Saints, 24-10 as 2-point underdogs.
- The lone touchdown for New Orleans came on an interception return for a score. It marked the sixth time the Saints were held to 1 or fewer TDs.
- Since that defeat, the Saints have averaged 24.8 points in the last five games. New Orleans has covered the spread in each of these contests.
- Falcons QB Kirk Cousins took over after Michael Penix, Jr. sustained a season-ended knee injury in a Week 11 overtime loss to Carolina.
- Atlanta has won and covered four times in Cousins’ six starts, while averaging 27.3 ppg in the past three victories.
- The Saints have cashed tickets in their past four road games, including three times as an underdog.
- The Falcons lost in their previous two opportunities as a home favorite to the Dolphins (34-10) and Panthers (30-27).
Saints vs. Falcons Picks for Sunday NFL DFS
Here are three top Saints vs. Falcons picks to target on Sunday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by three players: New Orleans QB Tyler Shough, Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson, and Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr.
Saints QB Tyler Shough vs. Falcons Projection: 235.5 Passing Yards
- Rookie Shough has turned into the New Orleans QB of the future, throwing for at least 300 yards in the past two wins over the Jets and Titans.
- The former Texas Tech and Louisville gunslinger is averaging 260.1 yards in his last seven starts, including a 243-yard performance in the Week 12 loss to Atlanta.
- Seven of the last nine QBs to face the Falcons have eclipsed this passing projection.
- In three of four starts against division foes, the 26-year old has posted 282, 243, and 272 passing yards.
- Shough ranks 11th with an average of 8.5 air passing yards. The Falcons gave up at least 250 passing yards to a pair of QBs sitting in the top-3, Matthew Stafford of the Rams and Drake Maye of the Patriots.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Saints Projection: 82.5 Rushing Yards
- Robinson ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,445 rushing yards, capped off by 195-yard effort in Monday’s victory over the Rams.
- The former Texas Longhorn seeks consecutive 100+ yard rushing games for the first time in his career.
- The third-year pro is averaging 67 yards in the four games following a 100+ yard showing this season.
- In the last eight games, Robinson’s lowest output came against New Orleans in Week 12 when he posted 70 yards on 14 carries, including a 32-yard run, his third-longest rush of 2025.
- The Saints have allowed one running back to rush for more than this projection in the past four victories.
- Titans RB Tony Pollard put up 85 yards in last week’s 34-26 setback to New Orleans.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr. vs. Saints Projection: 47.5 Receiving Yards
- New Orleans allows an average of 50.7 yards to opposing tight ends, the 19th-most in the league.
- Pitts was limited at practice on Thursday with a knee issue. He looks to avoid missing his first game since 2022.
- The former Florida Gator standout racked up four consecutive games with at least 50 receiving yards prior to a 16-yard dud against the Rams last Monday.
- The three worst outputs for Pitts have come at home, posting fewer than 20 yards against the Bills, Panthers, and Rams at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
- In four of the last five matchups with the Saints, the fourth pick of the 2021 draft was held to less than 27 yards.
Make Picks on NFL on PrizePicks
The Falcons and Saints aren’t heading to the postseason, but one of these teams will close on a nice winning streak.
There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NFL moment than with PrizePicks.
There are hundreds of player stat projections on the NFL board for every game; just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states!
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