Penn State (3–4) travels to play No. 1 Ohio State (7–0) on Saturday, Nov. 1, with kickoff slated for 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
PSU has fallen in its last eight games in the series, including a 20–13 loss last November at Beaver Stadium. The Buckeyes haven't lost to Penn State at home since 2011 and hold a commanding 24–8 edge all-time.
As OSU dominates both sides of the ball, Penn State looks to snap a four-game conference losing skid. Ohio State enters the weekend first nationally in total defense (225.3 YPG), while Penn State has struggled to generate explosive plays through the air, ranking 112th in passing offense (178.3 YPG).
Below, we’ll break down our Penn State vs. Ohio State prediction and Saturday NCAAF pick, also highlighting the top PrizePicks player projection targets for this noon Big Ten rivalry.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Prediction, Preview: Saturday, Nov. 1
Here’s a closer look at our Penn State vs. Ohio State preview and prediction for Saturday’s Big Ten battle.
Penn State Preview vs. Ohio State
Penn State is in desperate need of a spark. The Nittany Lions average 336.7 yards per game (102nd) but remain 25th in overall EPA/play (+0.19, per Game on Paper, thanks to efficient early-down runs and red-zone scoring.
In the first game without QB Drew Allar, Penn State’s offense took a dramatic hit. Freshman backup QB Ethan Grunkemeyer had a 93-yard, 2-INT showing in a 25-24 loss to Iowa before the bye week.
Still, RBs Kaytron Allen (612 yards, 9 TDs) and Nicholas Singleton (274 yards, 6 TDs) are forces, with the team sitting 19th in rushing success rate (46.1%).
Penn State’s defense remains formidable, especially through the air, allowing 153.2 passing yards per game (fifth) and -0.15 EPA/pass (25th). With that said, the front seven has been vulnerable on the ground (173.2 rushing YPG allowed, 98th in FBS). That contrast could prove fatal against an Ohio State offense that thrives on balance and tempo.
Situationally, the Nittany Lions are lagging behind the elite teams. They rank 113th in time of possession (27:56) and just 59th in third-down conversion rate (46.6%), while Ohio State sits second in third-down defense (31.5%).
Ohio State Preview vs. Penn State
Ohio State is playing at a historically efficient pace on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, per Game on Paper, the Buckeyes rank first in EPA/play (+0.44) and success rate (53.6%). QB Julian Sayin has been nearly flawless, completing 80% of his passes for 1,872 yards and 19 TDs with only 3 INTs.
His chemistry with WR Jeremiah Smith (49 receptions, 602 yards, 7 TDs) adds another dimension to an offense that posts a +2.99 yards per play margin (first) and gains 31.2% more available yards than opponents.
The Buckeyes’ rushing attack is led by RB Bo Jackson. While this Bo Jackson doesn’t play two sports, he’s doing plenty to keep the offense multidimensional. The freshman is averaging 6.4 yards per carry with 433 yards, and the Buckeyes' backfield sports a 44.0% success rate for Sayin, who’s fifth in passing grade under pressure (80.0, per PFF).
Defensively, OSU is suffocating, allowing just 5.9 points and 216.9 yards per game, both tops nationally. The Buckeyes hold opponents to 0.22 EPA allowed per drive (first) and 35.4% success rate (12th). They're also third in pass defense (131.3 YPG) and eighth against the run (85.6 YPG). Their early-down EPA (-0.17, ninth) forces opponents into long third downs (7.14-yard average).
Ohio State has been well worthy of its top ranking to this point. Their +5.0 net field position margin and +2.53 EPA/drive differential underscore how they’re controlling games at a playoff-caliber level.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Best PrizePicks Targets
Here are some top Penn State vs. Ohio State picks to target, headlined by QB Julian Sayin.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin Projection — 254.5 Passing Yards
- Sayin averages 267.4 passing yards per game and is coming off a 393-yard, 4-TD outing against Wisconsin, completing 85.7% of his passes.
- He ranks first in FBS in passing success rate (64.1%) and second in yards per dropback (9.53), via Game on Paper, trailing only USC’s Jayden Maiava.
- Sayin benefits from Ohio State’s 53.6% offensive success rate and +0.44 net EPA/play, both indicators of sustained efficiency.
- He operates behind an elite offensive line, aided by a third- and fourth-down efficiency margin of 56.2, allowing consistent rhythm through tempo and spacing.
Penn State RB Kaytron Allen Projection — 49.5 Rushing Yards
- Allen is averaging 87.4 rushing yards per game with a 46.1% success rate (19th) and 0.15 EPA per rush (14th).
- He logged 145 yards and 2 TDs on 28 carries against Iowa, accounting for over half of Penn State’s total offense in that game.
- Allen faces an Ohio State run defense ranked fourth (84.2 YPG) with a 33.7% success rate allowed (13th).
- With an unproven freshman QB, Penn State’s game plan could rely on Allen’s volume to stabilize tempo against OSU’s +18.2% success rate differential.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith Projection — 87.5 Receiving Yards
- Smith leads Ohio State in receiving with 602 yards and 7 TDs and is 12th nationally in receptions with 49.
- He has surpassed 80 yards in four of seven games and averages 86.0 yards per game on 9.8 targets.
- Smith faces a Penn State secondary ranked fifth in pass defense (153.2 YPG).
- Per PFF, the star WR posts 58.7 yards per reception on deep passes (13th), consistently exploiting single coverage chances.
- Smith could see increased production if Penn State shifts defensive focus toward stopping the run.
Make Your Penn State vs. Ohio State Picks on PrizePicks
Saturday’s Big Ten meetup pits Ohio State’s elite efficiency against a Penn State squad that has a chance to play spoiler in the regular season.
With PrizePicks and the Playbook, you can cash in on Big Noon college football picks by targeting players like Julian Sayin, Kaytron Allen, and Jeremiah Smith.
Just pick your college football players, predict More or Less on their stat projections, and win real money if you’re right.
