Inter-conference games don’t always bring the hype, but Week 10’s Patriots vs. Bucs matchup might shape up to be one of the best on the slate.
Sunday’s afternoon showdown (1:00 p.m. ET on CBS) sees 7-2 New England hit the road to face 6-2 Tampa Bay. With both clubs eyeing the postseason, the stakes are high in what could be a high-scoring affair.
Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Bucs prediction and some top Week 10 picks to consider. Use PrizePicks NFL to monitor player projections and make picks for real rewards if you’re right.
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Preview for Week 10
As expected, these two opponents haven’t played one another too often. Week 10 marks the 11th all-time meeting between the Patriots and Buccaneers, with New England boasting a 7-3 series advantage.
Injuries could factor into Sunday’s game in a big way. On the Pats’ side, WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) and RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) missed multiple practices this week. For the Bucs, WR Chris Godwin (fibula) and RB Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) did the same.
Neither side enters the weekend at 100% health, but that’s the nature of the beast.
New England Patriots Preview vs. Buccaneers
It’s been tough sledding for the Patriots since QB Tom Brady left town (and eventually retired). Although 49ers QB Mac Jones led them to the playoffs in 2021, they went 16-35 in the ensuing three campaigns.
Year one with head coach Mike Vrabel at the helm is seeing the tides turn. New England’s 7-2 start is their best since 2019, Brady’s last year in town.
The Patriots come into Sunday riding a six-game winning streak. Perhaps the easiest schedule in the league had something to do with that.
New England boasts a balanced attack, ranking 12th in points per drive on offense and fifth on defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview vs. Patriots
Under head coach Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers improved by one win in each of his first three seasons. They went from 8-9 in 2022 to 9-8 in 2023 and 10-7 a year ago.
Thanks to a red-hot beginning to 2025, the Bucs might be in for another mini-leap. Their 6-2 record matches 2021’s start. They won 13 games that year with Brady.
Tampa Bay got embarrassed by way of a 24-9 loss to the Lions in Week 7, but they responded by throttling the Saints 23-3 in Week 8.
Coming off their bye, the Buccaneers are 15th in scoring offense and 13th in scoring defense.
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Picks for Sunday
Here are three Patriots vs. Bucs Week 10 picks for Sunday. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QBs Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield, as well as RB Rachaad White.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Bucs Projection: 280.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- Nine games in, Maye leads the sport in completion percentage at 74.1.
- That clip remains the same when blitzed. Per NFL Pro, the Buccaneers blitz at the third-highest rate on late downs.
- The former No. 3 overall pick averages 283.9 combined (passing and rushing) yards per game. In the last five weeks, that figure is 293.8.
- Tampa Bay’s defense surrenders the eighth-most passing yards per game (253.1) and the fourth-most rushing yards (25.3) to opposing QBs.
- A stylistic trend to monitor, per Sharp Football Analysis: Maye ranks sixth among all QBs with 8.7 yards per attempt off play-action. The Buccaneers allow the third-highest YPA on such tries (9.8).
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Patriots Projection: 244.5 Pass Yards
- Since averaging 226 passing yards per game in Weeks 1-4, Mayfield has posted 253.8 over the course of his last four outings.
- Week 8’s pre-bye win over New Orleans saw Mayfield amass a season-low 152 yards, albeit on a season-low 24 attempts.
- Per SumerSports, the former first-round pick ranks 13th among all QBs in total EPA this year.
- The Patriots surrender the 13th-most passing yards per game (237.3) despite being 18th in average attempts (32).
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White vs. Patriots Projection: 70.5 Rush + Rec Yards
- Even with him racking up a combined 67 rushes and receptions in his last four games, White has averaged just 3.91 yards per touch.
- Buccaneers RBs are dead last with just 6.3% of their runs going to 10+ yards.
- Per SumerSports, White’s 3.9% explosive rush rate ranks 37th out of 43 RBs with 50+ carries.
- The Patriots have allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs at 484.
- Perhaps the only saving grace for White could be his receiving chops. Via FantasyPros, he was tied for eighth among RBs with 15 targets from Weeks 5-8 with Irving on the shelf.
Make Patriots vs. Buccaneers Picks on PrizePicks
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