By the end of Conference Championship Sunday, we'll finally know the 2026 Super Bowl matchup. The first spot will be won in the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots (16-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3), with a 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff.
With the NFL Playoffs down to just four teams, there’s no shortage of ways to get in on the real-money action Patriots vs. Broncos — including first touchdown scorer picks on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Let’s break down two players to target for your Patriots vs. Broncos first touchdown scorer prediction, including one long-shot pick.
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Patriots vs. Broncos First Touchdown Scorer Payouts for AFC Championship
Here's the full list of Patriots vs. Broncos first touchdown scorers on PrizePicks Team Picks. Both team's starting running backs stand out as the most likely players to score the AFC Championship’s first TD according to the projected payouts.
- Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson: 6.25x Yes | 1.06x No
- Broncos RB RJ Harvey: 6.25x Yes | 1.07x No
- Patriots WR Stefon Diggs: 8.33x Yes | 1.04x No
- Patriots TE Hunter Henry: 8.33x Yes | 1.05x No
- Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson: 10x Yes | 1.03x No
- Patriots QB Drake Maye: 10x Yes | 1.03x No
- Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte: 10x Yes
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton: 10x Yes | 1.02x No
- Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin: 10x Yes | 1.03x No
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Patriots vs. Broncos First Touchdown Scorer Prediction: Target RBs?
Run games and defense are consistently the keys in the postseason. That should continue to ring true for Sunday’s clash, as Denver’s forecast is calling for a high of 24 degrees, while winds will lead to a real feel of 13 degrees.
Numb hands and dense air point to the ground game holding more weight on Sunday. New England carries a 47.4% rush-play rate (seventh), but Denver sports a low 41.2% rate (24th).
However, Broncos QB Bo Nix suffered a season-ending foot injury last week, potentially leading to more rushing attempts.
With that said, targeting one of the running backs could be the most promising Patriots vs. Broncos first touchdown scorer prediction. But which RB stands out among the bunch?
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 13.0 carries, 4.7 yards per carry, and 61.5 rushing yards per game in the playoffs compared to 9.3 rushing attempts, 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, and 43.1 rushing yards per contest in the regular season.
The veteran tailback’s snap share has jumped to 62.0% in the postseason, surpassing his 59.4% regular-season mark. He’s also increased his 2.6 targets per game from the regular season to 4.0 targets per contest over the last two.
Between the two offenses, the Patriots feel more trustworthy, proven by 28.1 points per game (fifth) while the Broncos recorded 24.1 points per game (13th). Plus, Denver’s offense could stumble with Jarrett Stidham under center.
Stevenson has posted 6 total TDs over his last five games, and he leads the team by taking 43.5% of carries within the 5-yard line, per Pro Football Reference.
Taking Stevenson to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs. Broncos on PrizePicks Team Picks pays out 6.25x — or $625 on a $100 entry, if you're right.
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Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson First Touchdown Scorer
Don’t sleep on Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson for a Patriots vs. Broncos first touchdown scorer prediction — even though he is the team's RB2.
The rookie still carries a prominent role in the New England offense, logging a 39.5% snap rate in the postseason.
The 2025 second-round pick has averaged 10.5 rushing attempts and 1.5 targets per game over the last two matchups — in line with 10.6 and 2.5 from the regular season. Henderson still touts a strong red-zone usage, leading New England with 38.2% of carries within the 20-yard line and 37.5% of attempts within the 10.
He also possesses elite breakaway speed, leading to more explosive plays than Stevenson. While the vet sits atop first TD scorer predictions, Henderson is still a solid long-shot pick, thanks to reaching 10 TDs in the regular season.
Taking Henderson to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs. Broncos on PrizePicks Team Picks pays out 10x — or $1,000 on a $100 entry, if you're right.
Make Patriots vs. Broncos Picks on PrizePicks
For Patriots vs. Broncos first touchdown scorer predictions, a healthy New England offense could be the best route to points.
Cold weather further emphasizes the ground game, and the Pats already feature a high rush-play rate, leading to the one-two punch of Stevenson and Henderson as interesting first TD scorer picks.
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