The NFL playoff picture is heating up, and Sunday’s meeting between the Panthers and Falcons could have a ripple effect on how things look in the NFC.
Sunday afternoon’s divisional bout (1:00 p.m. ET on FOX) sees young QBs Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr. go head-to-head. The Week 11 showdown might be more about the RB position, however, with a star taking the field on either side.
Below, we’ll break down our Panthers vs. Falcons prediction and NFL Week 11 picks to consider. Use PrizePicks NFL to monitor player projections and make picks for real rewards if you’re right.
Panthers vs. Falcons Prediction, Preview for Week 11
Sunday marks the 62nd time the Panthers and Falcons will meet in their illustrious rivalry. To date, Atlanta boasts a 37-24 series lead. The last two decisions went to Carolina, though, including Week 3’s 30-0 statement win.
Heading into Week 11’s game, the Panthers are managing the practice workload of RB Rico Dowdle as he prepares to play on Sunday. On the Falcons’ side, WR Drake London is battling an illness and a back ailment. Up front, guards Chris Lindstrom (foot) and Matthew Bergeron (ankle) are at well less than 100%.
Carolina Panthers Preview vs. Falcons
Last year saw then-first-year head coach Dave Canales lead the Panthers to a 5-12 record, a three-win improvement over the season prior.
Carolina matched that win total through just nine games this season. The club has alternated wins and losses in its last four contests.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, their offense still has yet to get with the program. Through 10 outings, it’s 28th in scoring and 27th in yards gained.
Carolina’s defense, while definitely unspectacular, is improved. It sits 17th in points per drive after finishing 2024 dead last.
Atlanta Falcons Preview vs. Panthers
Similar to their in-division counterparts, the Falcons had a new head coach in 2024. Under Raheem Morris, they posted an 8-9 record and finished second in the NFC South.
Nine games into Morris’ sophomore campaign with the franchise, things aren’t remotely the same. Atlanta is just 3-6, having dropped four games in a row. The two most recent defeats were by a combined seven points.
The Falcons move the ball fairly well on offense, ranking right down the middle (16th), but they’re 28th in points per drive.
Thanks to an improved pass rush, the Dirty Birds’ defense is up to ninth in turnover rate and 22nd in per-possession scoring.
Panthers vs. Falcons Picks for NFL Week 11 on Sunday
Here are three Panthers vs. Falcons picks for NFL Week 11 on Sunday. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QB Bryce Young and RBs Rico Dowdle and Bijan Robinson.
Panthers QB Bryce Young vs. Falcons Projection: 163.5 Pass Yards
- Young’s late-2024 surge hasn’t carried into 2025. He’s throwing for just 168.2 yards per game and owns a 5.6 yards per attempt mark in nine starts.
- After nearly hitting 200 yards in Weeks 5 and 6, the former No. 1 overall pick has netted an average of 121.3 yards in his last three outings.
- Per SumerSports, 37 QBs have logged 100+ plays this year. Young ranks 33rd in total EPA accumulated with -34.77.
- Only the Browns have allowed fewer passing yards to QBs than Atlanta’s 1,653.
- The Falcons’ pass defense ranks seventh-best in EPA/play at -0.05.
Panthers RB Rico Dowdle vs. Falcons Projection: 87.5 Rush Yards
- Since his 206-yard breakout in Week 5, Dowdle has rushed for 705 yards and 4 TDs. His 117.5-yard average in that span paces to just under 2,000 yards in a full year.
- Out of the 44 RBs with 50+ rush attempts, Dowdle has the sixth-lowest clip of runs stopped for a loss (5.37%).
- The Falcons yield an average of 116.9 rushing yards to RBs this season, which is the fourth-highest mark in the sport.
- Atlanta’s run defense is 29th in EPA/play, per SumerSports.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Panthers Projection: 112.5 Rush + Rec Yards
- Robinson enters Week 11 sixth in the NFL in total touches (178) and third in scrimmage yards (1,146).
- In Week 3’s loss to the Panthers, Robinson had 111 all-purpose yards in 18 touches.
- Robinson’s 18.88% target share trails only Dolphins star De’Von Achane and 49ers stud Christian McCaffrey at the RB position, per SumerSports.
- A stylistic clash to watch is runs outside the tackles. Per NFL Pro, Robinson leads all ball carriers with 50+ tries in share of outside rushes (77.8%). Carolina allows 4.6 yards per carry on those looks.
- The Panthers have surrendered the 14th-most fantasy points to RBs at 171.7.
Make Panthers vs. Falcons Picks on PrizePicks
When two NFC South foes go head-to-head, there will be plenty of opportunities for Panthers vs. Falcons picks. The NFL Week 11 slate also leaves the door open for several other prime player projections and more.
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