Panthers vs. Buccaneers is the first of a trio of games in NFL Week 18 in which the division is up for grabs — the winner of this game will win the NFC South.
The Panthers win the NFC South for the first time since 2015 with either a win in Tampa or a Falcons win vs. the Saints on Sunday. The Bucs would need to beat Carolina and get a little help in the form of a Saints victory to win the NFC South for the fifth-straight year.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Tampa, live on ESPN and ABC to kick off NFL Week 18 with the NFC South title on the line.
Below, we’ll break down our Panthers vs. Bucs spread pick for NFL Week 18 on PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks Team Picks to make picks on spread, over/under, and winners to win real money if you’re right.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Over/Under, Spread for Saturday NFL Football
The Buccaneers opened the week as 3-point favorites vs. the Panthers. Since then, they have moved to 2.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
As the current favorites, the Buccaneers return a 1.61x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Panthers are road underdogs with a 2.17x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The total opened at 43.5 and has since risen to 44.5 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (1.78x payout)
- Over/Under: 44.5 (2x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Panthers 2.17x | Buccaneers 1.61x
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Prediction on Spread for Saturday, 1/3/26
Below, we’ll give you a Panthers vs. Buccaneers pick on the over/under for PrizePicks Team Picks in the Saturday NFL game for the NFC South division title. Use PrizePicks to make NFL picks and earn money if you’re right.
- All eight of the Panthers' wins have come as underdogs.
- If the Panthers win on Saturday, it would set the record for most wins as an underdog in NFL history.
- The Buccaneers are 0-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games — their longest single-season ATS losing streak in franchise history.
- Carolina is 7-0 ATS this season following a straight-up (SU) loss, covering the spread by 11.8 PPG.
- In his career, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is 22-36-1 ATS at home.
- Against divisional opponents, that number is 5-14 ATS, including 2-12 ATS since 2020.
- Mayfield ranks 33rd out of 42 QBs in passing grade at 65.3, per PFF.
- The 30-year-old also has a turnover-worthy play percentage of 4.03%, with his 26 turnover-worthy plays leading all eligible QBs.
- Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has not historically been a coach you want to back in meaningful games. When his team has a win percentage between 40 and 60% (currently 44% win percentage), he is 25-37 straight up.
- That record is worst for any NFL head coach since 2005.
Saturday Football Injury Report: Panthers vs. Buccaneers
The Panthers enter this game with a relatively clean bill of health, particularly regarding their key players. Their most notable absence is LB Claudin Cherelus, who grades out well below average on PFF at 58.2, though he has started all season.
The Buccaneers enter Saturday’s game with a much more dicey injury outlook. They will be without CB Jamel Dean (shoulder), on top of already missing CB Zyon McCollum (IR). Dean is PFF’s third graded cornerback out of 113 qualifiers. He is critical because even with him, this is still a Tampa Bay defense that is ninth-worst in expected points allowed (EPA) vs the pass.
Also for Tampa Bay, PFF’s seccnd-graded offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs is battling turf toe. Wirfs has allowed just two sacks all year and ranks 14th in pass-blocking efficiency while protecting Mayfield's blindside.
Wirfs is officially off the injury report and will play, but it is still worth noting that he will not be at full strength.
Make Panthers vs. Bucs Picks on PrizePicks
The Panthers vs. Bucs game kicks off both an exciting Saturday double-header and an action-packed weekend of NFL football.
The NFL does a great job of providing entertainment in even “meaningless” football games. That entertainment gets ramped up tenfold when both teams are fighting for the division, and that is what we have on Saturday.
In the Panthers vs. Buccaneers game in NFL Week 18, you can make picks on the winner, spread, and over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks. Just pick your side, lock in your pick, and earn money if you're right — now in 30 states, including Florida.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news all season long.
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