The Houston Cougars head to the Great Northwest on Friday to take on the Oregon State Beavers in a non-conference clash. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET.

Houston aims to build on its strong start behind transfer quarterback Connor Weigman, while Oregon State will try to find a rhythm behind their own transfer signal caller, Malik Murphy.

Below, we’ll give you a full Oregon State vs. Houston prediction for the lone nationally-televised late-night clash on the Week 5 slate, plus PrizePicks picks for CFB DFS, including Weigman, QB Malik Murphy, and WR Stephon Johnson. 

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Oregon State vs. Houston Prediction, Preview for Friday, September 26, 2025

Oregon State vs. Houston Preview

Oregon State enters this matchup desperate for both offensive rhythm and defensive stability. The Beavers rank 118th nationally in total offense (319.3 YPG), leaning heavily on the pass (249.3 YPG)  but have yet to produce much on the ground (70 YPG, 133rd). Scoring has been hard to come by, as they are only averaging 16 points per game.

Defensively, the problems are even worse, as Oregon State sits near the bottom of the FBS in every category, allowing 464.5 yards (129th) and 39 points per game (131st), all of which has contributed to their 0-4 start.

Houston owns a far more balanced attack. The Cougars average 388.7 yards per game (72nd), powered by a 201.3 YPG rushing game (39th). While the passing attack ranks just 100th (187.3 YPG), Houston’s ability to finish drives shows in their 32.7 points per game (57th).

The biggest edge, however, is on defense. Houston owns one of the nation’s strongest units, ranking ninth in total defense (224 YPG) and 11th in scoring defense. They excel against the pass (120 YPG, ninth) and have held opponents to just 24.4% on third downs (13th nationally). Their most recent outing defensively caused another quarterback change at Colorado. 

Oregon State Outlook

Since taking over as head coach, Trent Bray has posted just a 5–11 record, and the Beavers are currently mired in an awful 1–10 stretch. Their 0–4 start to the 2025 campaign has been defined by a disastrous defense that has surrendered 34+ points in every game, while the offense has managed a meager 16 points per contest.

The lone bright spot for Oregon State has been quarterback Malik Murphy. Murphy ranks inside the top-35 in passing yards and the offense ranks top-50 in EPA per pass, providing a rare source of optimism for an otherwise struggling offense.

Unfortunately, the ground game is nonexistent, with the Beavers sitting outside the top-125 in EPA per rush.

Defensively, Oregon State has been even more problematic, ranking outside the top-120 in EPA per play allowed. Their secondary has been especially vulnerable. As per PFF, CB Jalil Tucker ranks 805th out of 824 in coverage grades, while DB Trey Glasper sits 489th, leaving the Beavers without a reliable answer on the back end.

Texas Tech Outlook

Offensively, Houston has been steady, ranking inside the top-75 nationally in EPA per play. Weigman has provided a spark, throwing for 569 yards and 4 touchdowns while completing 64% of his passes. His efficiency has given the Cougars balance in the air and on the ground.

The real strength of this Houston team, however, is its defense. The Cougars have been dominant, ranking  in the nation in EPA per pass allowed, and inside the top-30 in EPA per rush defense. On a per-drive basis, they own the second-best defensive efficiency in the country.

Against an Oregon State offense that has struggled to generate points, Houston’s elite defense is well-positioned to dictate the game.

Oregon State vs. Houston Picks – Friday, September 26, 2025

Here are three Oregon State vs. Houston picks to key in for CFB DFS on PrizePicks. Just pick More or Less on player stats — like the picks below — to win real money on PrizePicks.

Oregon State QB Malik Murphy Projection: 230.5 Passing Yards

Oregon State quarterback Malik Murphy has shown flashes of consistency despite a rocky start to the 2025 season. Through four games, he posted passing totals of 244, 371, and 281 yards, before hitting a wall in a tough road matchup at Oregon where he was limited to just 68 yards.

Even with that poor outing, Murphy is averaging 241 yards per game this season. That shouldn't be a surprise: Dating back to his tenure at Duke, he has averaged 246.6 passing yards across his last 10 games, hitting that number in all but one contest.

Murphy has been the lone bright spot for a Beavers offense otherwise struggling to find consistency.

Houston QB Connor Weigman Projection: 34.5 Rushing yards

Since transferring to Houston, Weigman has added a new element to his game: his legs.

He’s averaging 48.3 rushing yards per game this season at an efficient 4.6 yards per attempt. His workload as a runner has grown each week, climbing from six carries in Week 3 to 17 attempts in the win over Colorado.

This comes at the perfect time against an Oregon State defense that has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks. Already this season, the Beavers allowed QBs E.J. Warner (Fresno State) to rush for 57 yards and a touchdown, Dante Moore (Oregon) to tally 53 yards, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (California) to break off 30 yards on just two carries.

Weigman’s ability to extend plays with his legs could be a major factor in this matchup.

Houston WR Stephon Johnson Projection: 52.5 Receiving Yards

WR Stephon Johnson has quickly emerged as Houston’s go-to weapon.

After missing the season opener, he’s been electric, recording 74 yards against Rice and 117 yards against Colorado, for an average of 95.5 yards per game.

Johnson’s production hasn't come out of nowhere: Dating back to last season, he’s on a five-game stretch with receiving totals of 70, 54, 74, 117, and 95 yards.

Make Oregon State vs. Houston Picks on PrizePicks

Houston holds the edge in all major categories, but can Oregon State sneak out a win at home under the Friday night lights?

No matter how you think this game will play out, you can cash in on your predictions on PrizePicks. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their Week 5 stats, and win real money when your picks hit.

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