Oklahoma (7-2) travels to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama (8-1) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Sooners shocked the Tide 24-3 in Norman last year, and Alabama has made it clear they haven’t forgotten.
For Oklahoma, this is a must-win if their playoff hopes remain alive. For Alabama, a home loss could derail their SEC title window.
Below, we break down our Oklahoma vs. Alabama prediction and Saturday CFB picks, also highlighting the top PrizePicks player projections to target in this huge conference matchup.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama Prediction, Preview: Saturday, Nov. 15
This clash brings two distinct identities into focus — Oklahoma’s disciplined play (No. 4 defensive EPA/play) versus Alabama’s explosive passing attack and turnover dominance.
With Alabama’s home streak, QB advantage, and superior turnover margin (tied for fourth), they enter this game confidently, but Oklahoma’s elite defense and flawless red-zone offense could give them realistic pull.
Oklahoma Sooners Preview vs. Alabama
The Sooners allow just 15.5 points per game and 278.4 total yards, including 78.1 opponent rushing yards allowed (No. 2 overall).
Oklahoma has been steady on offense, posting 28.1 points per game and 358.5 yards. QB John Mateer’s thumb surgery created a split. Pre-surgery, he averaged 303.8 passing yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs; post-surgery, he averages 183.5 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs.
The Sooners have quietly built one of the most airtight defenses in the country. They own the nation’s best defensive success rate at 30.5%, and they’re the only team ranked No. 1 in both EPA/rush (-0.21) and rushing success rate (25.3%). Even through the air, they sit at No. 16 in EPA/pass (-0.16). Opponents gain just 32.6% of available yards against OU (seventh-lowest) and face an average third-down distance of 8.19 yards.
Offensively, Oklahoma is sitting at -0.03 EPA/play (No. 96), -0.04 EPA/pass (No. 87), and a modest 41.5% success rate (No. 73). The unit is still functional, albeit not threatening. What Oklahoma does still excel at is field position (13th) and finishing drives. The Sooners have the top red-zone offense, scoring on all 28 of their trips. Facing Alabama, the Sooners will need flawless ball security to stay in range.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview vs. Oklahoma
Alabama enters with a home winning streak of 17 games and a 10-game scoring average around 40-11. The Tide aren’t flashy, they’re efficient. They average 32.8 points and 403.4 yards per game, with a heavy lean on the pass (291.2 yards, 12th nationally) and an unremarkable rushing attack (112.2 yards, 114th nationally).
QB Ty Simpson has emerged as a bona fide star, connecting on multiple 30+ yard completions last week. He ranks 13th in pass success rate (51.4%, per Game on Paper). With Oklahoma’s run defense so stout, Simpson may carry heavier volume than usual.
Alabama’s turnover advantage (+1.2 per game, fourth) and red-zone stinginess give them the margin they need in tight games. On a Saturday where mistakes are magnified, that may prove decisive.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama Prediction, Saturday CFB Picks
Here are the PrizePicks player pick targets for Saturday’s huge SEC matchup between Oklahoma and Alabama.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer Projection vs. Alabama: 206.5 Passing Yards
- Mateer opened the season on a tear. Since returning, he's had a clear dip in downfield efficiency.
- Alabama’s defense allows just 183.4 passing yards per game (26th nationally) and 306.6 total yards, limiting explosive plays and forcing long drives.
- The Tide have only 6 giveaways and but 17 total takeaways through 9 games, per TeamRankings.
- Oklahoma averages 217.3 passing yards per game (79th).
- Head coach Brent Venables could manage this game through defense and field position rather than asking Mateer to throw 40+ times into a ball-hawking secondary.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson Projection vs. Oklahoma: 267.5 Passing Yards
- Oklahoma’s defense has been outstanding overall, ranking ninth in PPG and second in rushing yardage. That kind of run defense practically dares opponents to throw.
- Because Alabama’s rushing floor is so low and Oklahoma’s front is so stout, Simpson could be asked to shoulder even more volume than usual, especially on early downs.
- With Alabama’s run-game inefficiency (No. 128 in rush success rate), Simpson could be positioned to inherit a larger share of total offensive yards.
- In a game with playoff implications, Alabama’s best path still runs through Simpson’s arm, especially if the Tide are forced into a pass-heavy plan.
Alabama WR Ryan Williams Projection vs. Oklahoma: 54.5 Receiving Yards
- WR Ryan Williams has grown into a featured piece, working primarily as a vertical and intermediate separator who pairs well with Simpson’s aggressive approach.
- In Week 11, Williams was held to 3 receptions for 33 yards and 1 TD in a 20-9 victory over LSU.
- Oklahoma’s defense is brutal against the run and disciplined underneath, creating the potential for more play-action shots and one-on-one chances outside.
- From a usage standpoint, Williams could benefit if the Sooners commit extra attention to deeper crossers and TEs. Think quick-hitting outs, glance routes, and double-moves off RPO looks.
- In a spot where Alabama may need multiple explosive plays to loosen up Oklahoma’s defense, Williams profiles as a high-leverage option who could thrive on just a few well-timed shots.
This Saturday showdown brings together Oklahoma’s fundamentally sound defense and an Alabama team that thrives on explosive passing, red-zone execution, and turnovers. The Sooners’ perfect red-zone record and elite run defense give them a puncher’s chance, but the Tide’s home dominance, QB edge, and ball security might tilt this game late.
With PrizePicks and the Playbook, you can cash in on Saturday’s SEC action by targeting players like John Mateer, Ty Simpson, Ryan Williams, and more.
Just pick your college football players, predict More or Less on their stat projections, and win real money if you’re right.
