The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) travel to Champaign, Ill., for a key Big Ten showdown against the No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) on Saturday afternoon. This is one Week 7 game you won't want to miss.
Ohio State enters off a dominant 42-3 win over Minnesota, while Illinois has rebounded from its early 63-10 loss to Indiana with back-to-back victories over USC and Purdue.
Below, we’ll break down our Ohio State vs. Illinois prediction and the top PrizePicks player picks for this Week 6 Big Ten showdown, kicking off at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
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The Buckeyes continue to dominate behind sophomore QB Julian Sayin, who leads the nation in completion rate (80.2%), while Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has been nearly flawless — tossing 12 TDs and no INTs. Both teams bring top-20 offenses into a matchup that could shape the Big Ten title race.
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Ohio State vs. Illinois Prediction, Preview: Saturday, Oct. 12
Here’s a full look inside the Ohio State vs. Illinois prediction for Saturday’s Big Ten showdown, with detailed previews for both teams in a ranked matchup
Ohio State Preview vs. Illinois
Julian Sayin continues to justify his five-star billing, completing 101 passes for 1,313 yards, 13 TDs and 3 INTs. The sophomore Heisman Trophy candidate has allowed the Buckeyes offense to stay on schedule — ranking No. 2 nationally in offensive success rate (55.0%), and No. 1 in pass success rate (64.8), per GameOnPaper.
The Buckeyes’ receiving corps remains elite. Heisman candidate WR Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate have combined for 898 yards and 10 TDs. Sayin’s chemistry with Tate showed in the win over Minnesota, as the duo connected nine times for 183 yards and a TD.
Defensively, Matt Patricia has turned the Buckeyes into a shutdown unit. Ohio State hasn’t allowed more than 9 points all season — and no first-half touchdowns through five games. The Buckeyes are 8th in the nation in defensive EPA per play (-0.22) and are holding opponents to just 228.3 yards per contest (3rd in FBS).
The one question is how they’ll handle an Illinois offense that’s been balanced and explosive. Patricia’s group hasn’t faced a quarterback this talented since its wins over Arch Manning and Texas in Week 1, as well as Demond Williams and Washington in Week 5. Containing Altmyer’s quick rhythm throws will be critical.
Illinois Preview vs. Ohio Sate
Coach Bret Bielema’s Illini have quietly become one of the nation’s most balanced teams. Altmyer has been exceptional, throwing for 1,573 yards and ranking 16th nationally in adjusted EPA per dropback (0.11).
WR Hank Beatty has been the breakout star, with 32 catches for 569 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in just about every way possible — 1 passing, 1 rushing, and 2 receiving. Against Purdue, he erupted for 186 yards and a touchdown on just five catches. He's become one of the best WRs in the country in the early going.
The Illini also boast a reliable backfield duo in Kaden Feagin and Ca’Lil Valentine, combining for 106.5 rushing yards per game.
However, red-zone efficiency remains a concern; Illinois ranks 79th nationally in touchdown rate inside the 20 (56.2%), often settling for David Olano’s field goals — he’s made 10 straight, including a walk-off winner vs. USC on Sept. 27.
Defensively, Illinois has shown progress since the Indiana loss, but is still just 100th in success rate, allowing 507.3 yards per game (6th-most in FBS) over its last three appearances. Keeping Ohio State’s offense contained, even on the home turf, for four quarters will be its toughest challenge yet.
Ohio State vs. Illinois Picks for PrizePicks Today
This ranked Big Ten matchup at 12 p.m. ET offers intriguing PrizePicks plays to win real money based on usage, efficiency, and matchup data. Here are the top player targets in today's Ohio State vs. Illinois game.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin Projection: 262.5 Pass Yards
Sayin has cleared 260 yards in three of five starts, in which he went off for 300+, and ranks 1st nationally in adjusted completion rate (86.7%) among players with more than 20 pass attempts. Illinois’ defense has allowed 276 passing yards per game — 119th-most among FBS teams.
The Illini struggle to pressure opposing QBs, ranking 79th in team sack percentage (5.29%), which could give Sayin time to pick apart the secondary. He has a chance to mimic his 326-yard performance against Minnesota.
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Illinois QB Luke Altmyer Projection: 215.5 Pass Yards
Altmyer has been one of the most efficient QBs in the Big Ten, posting a 19-for-22, 390-yard outing vs. Purdue. He’s averaging 9.4 yards per attempt and faces an Ohio State defense that has yet to allow a 200-yard passer.
Still, with Illinois likely playing from behind, volume could help him surpass this projection. Altmyer averages 33.4 attempts per game in conference play, and Beatty’s explosiveness after the catch could equate to 250+ yards if the Buckeyes get the early lead and Illinois is forced to open up the passing game.
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate Projection: 63.5 Receiving Yards
Carnell Tate is coming off his best game as a Buckeye (183 yards vs. Minnesota) and is No. 3 on the team in yards per route run (3.6), per PFF.
The junior wideout's usage on early-down play-action makes him the most likely to break off big gains. With Smith drawing double coverage, Tate should see plenty of single-high looks.
Tate has exceeded this receiving number in three of his last four games, with a TD in four of his five games this season. He's averaging a massive 18.1 yards per reception — meaning he may only need a few catches to reach this projection.
Make Ohio State vs. Illinois Picks on PrizePicks
This Big Ten clash between Ohio State vs. Illinois could define the playoff picture, as Ohio State remains undefeated, and Illinois looks for a big upset.
Ohio State’s dominance has been unquestioned, but Illinois’ offense has the balance and efficiency to keep it interesting in Champaign.
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