Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, College Basketball Picks

As the month of March approaches, cases are being constructed for NCAA Tournament bids. Both the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartans are pacing to make it into the big dance, and Sunday’s clash could have implications for the remainder of the season.

The CBS tip-off (1:00 p.m. ET) sees unranked OSU hit the road to face No. 15 MSU in the Breslin Center in East Lansing, MI. 

Below, we’ll break down our Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction and picks for Sunday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under

In year two with head coach Jake Diebler at the helm, Ohio State has already matched its 2024-25 win total of 17. Their 65.4% win rate is their best since 2020-21. The Buckeyes have alternated wins and losses dating back to January 20 against Minnesota. 

Another year, another dominant output from head coach Tom Izzo’s crew. After winning 30 games last season, Michigan State could push for that total again in 2025-26. They’re 11-4 in conference play, sitting 3.5 games behind Michigan for the top spot in the Big Ten. 

Sunday is the 135th meeting between Ohio State and Michigan State since 1949. The Spartans own a commanding 79-55 series lead, albeit with a narrow +1.0 average scoring margin.  

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Spread, Over/Under

Ohio State enters Sunday’s game as 9.5-point road underdogs, returning a 4.54x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

Michigan State is a home favorite with a 1.16x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

• Spread: Michigan State Spartans -9.5
• Over/Under: 144.5
• Game Winner Payout: Buckeyes 4.54x | Spartans 1.16x

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction on Spread

Here are some stats to know to help you make your Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction on Sunday, February 22.

• As home favorites this season, Michigan State is 7-5-1 against the spread. Ohio State is 2-2 ATS in four opportunities as road underdogs. 
• The Buckeyes’ offense struggles with 3-point shooting, ranking 127th in the nation with a 34.9% accuracy rate. The Spartans allow opponents to make just 31.4% of long-range tries, sitting 49th. 
• Defensively, Ohio State is 149th in points per game (73.4), 191st in 2-point percentage allowed (51.8), and 184th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.185). 
• Michigan State loves to keep the ball moving, ranking eighth in assists per game (18.6) and second in assists per made shot (0.674). 
• Foes shoot the eighth-lowest percentage versus the Spartans (39.6) overall. 

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/22/26

Here are three top Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks to target for Sunday, February 22 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by G Bruce Thornton, F Devin Royal, and G Jeremy Fears.

Ohio State G Bruce Thornton vs. Michigan State Projection: 27.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• On the year, Thornton averages 29.2 points, rebounds, and assists. In conference play, that number is 29.5.
• In his senior campaign with the Buckeyes, Thornton’s 65.5% true shooting rate is the best of his collegiate career.
• Thornton has upped his total rebounding clip to 9.1%, which is 2.9% higher than his previous personal best of 6.2% set in 2023-24. 
• Michigan State gets a steal on just 7.2% of plays, ranking 273rd. 

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Ohio State F Devin Royal vs. Michigan State Projection: 18.5 Pts + Rebs

• Royal brings home 19.6 combined points and rebounds per night. In Big Ten outings, that figure rises slightly to 19.8. 
• With that said, the Ohio native has gone cold in his last eight contests, posting a 17.5 average with an 18.5% 3-point mark.
• The junior forward’s 6.4% offensive rebounding share and 10.5% total rebounding ledger are both career-low thresholds.
• No team cedes fewer boards on a nightly basis than Michigan State with 28.6. 

Michigan State G Jeremy Fears vs. Ohio State Projection: 26.5 Pts + Asts

• Twenty-six games into his junior effort, Fears puts up 24.3 points and assists per night. Since the start of Big Ten play, his average is up to 16.7. 
• Fears is the all-time D-I career record holder for assist rate at 45.3%. He leads the nation this year at 53.9%, which increases to 56.9% against conference foes. 
• Despite his usage spiking 5.5% year-over-year, Fears’ turnover rate is down a shocking 8.6%. 
• According to KenPom, the Buckeyes sit just 67th in defensive rating (103.4). 

Make Ohio State vs. #15 Michigan State Picks on PrizePicks

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Big Ten picks are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.

You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states. 

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