The home stretch of the NBA season is in full swing, and we have a great matchup on tap tonight when the Denver Nuggets (40-26) travel to the Frost Bank Center to take on the San Antonio Spurs (48-17) at 9:00 p.m. ET.
The Spurs are 7.5-point favorites on the spread on PrizePicks Team Picks for the second meeting of the season between these two teams. San Antonio took the first game 139-136 in Denver.
Below, we’ll break down our Nuggets vs. Spurs prediction and Thursday NBA picks for PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks NBA to make picks on player projections and win real money if you’re right.
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Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Nuggets are right in the thick of a congested Western Conference playoff race. Denver sits in the No. 5 seed in the West, with the No. 3 through No. 7 seeds separated by just two games, making every game massive for playoff seeding.
Denver is coming off a decisive home win last night against an opponent jockeying for the same position in the Houston Rockets, thumping them 129-93. Perhaps now that they're healthy, we are finally seeing the Denver Nuggets from earlier, before they were derailed by injuries to many of their best players (including C Nikola Jokic).
The Spurs have been absolutely steamrolling the NBA, winning five straight games and 16 of their last 17. Most recently, they secured a home win against a fellow NBA title contender, the Boston Celtics, 125-116.
San Antonio has been led by MVP candidate C Victor Wembanyama. When healthy, Wemby is the best two-way player in the NBA, averaging 24.2 points and 11.1 rebounds while leading the league in blocks with 3 per game. So far in March, he's taken his game to a different level, averaging 28 and 11 with 4.2 blocks.
“Yes” on the Spurs to win this year’s NBA championship is returning a 5.26x return on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Nuggets vs. Spurs Spread, Over/Under
The Spurs enter Thursday’s game as 7.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.38x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Nuggets are road underdogs with a 2.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -7.5 (2.04x payout)
- Over/Under: 237.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Nuggets 2.85x | Spurs 1.38x
Team Picks payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Spurs Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Nuggets vs. Spurs injury report for Thursday, via NBA.com.
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- Not submitted at time of writing.
F Peyton Watson continues to nurse a hamstring injury that will keep him out through at least this week.
San Antonio Spurs Injury Report
- SF Harrison Barnes (ankle): Questionable
- SG Lindy Waters III (illness): Questionable
- C Victor Wembanyama (Ankle): Questionable
Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction on Spread – 3/12/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Nuggets vs. Spurs prediction on the spread for Thursday, March 12, on PrizePicks.
- The Nuggets are 22-13-0 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) on the road, the second-best road cover percentage in the NBA.
- Denver is on a back-to-back, which can be a cause for concern, but San Antonio hasn’t taken advantage of teams on short rest. The Spurs are 7-14 ATS with a rest advantage.
- The last time Denver was fully healthy was the start of the season in October, when they had the second-best net rating in the NBA (+11.5).
- Despite all their injuries, the Nuggets still have the best offensive rating in the NBA (120.3) while leading the league in true shooting (61.2%) and effective field goal percentage (57.2%).
Nuggets vs. Spurs Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/12/26
Here are two of the top Nuggets vs. Spurs to consider for Thursday, March 12, on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks are headlined by C Nikola Jokic and G Stephon Castle.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Spurs Projection: 50.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Jokic is averaging 51.7 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) this season.
- He has exceeded this projection in six of his last nine games and four of his six games so far in March.
- This is a notable tempo-up game for the Nuggets, who rank 22nd in the league in pace, while the Spurs rank 12th.
- The Joker had 21-9-10 in his only outing vs. San Antonio this season, a game in which he uncharacteristically shot the ball just 10 times.
- In two matchups vs. the Spurs last season, Jokic went for 46-9-10 (65 PRA) and 41-18-9 (68 PRA). He shot the ball 35 and 36 times in those two games, respectively.
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Spurs G Stephon Castle vs. Nuggets Projection: 27.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Castle is averaging 28.2 PRA per game this season.
- The second-year man has been much more efficient from the field at home, shooting 50.5% at the Frost Bank Center as opposed to 43.2% on the road.
- Denver gives up 27.1 assists per game (19th) while allowing opponents to shoot 47% from the field (15th).
- Last year’s Rookie of the Year has played the Nuggets three times. The third came late last year when Castle had established himself as the player he is. In that final outing, he went for 15-15-9 (39 PRA).
Make Nuggets vs. Spurs Picks on PrizePicks
Two of the top teams in the Western Conference meet up in San Antonio for what should be a fun one tonight, but Nuggets vs. Spurs picks aren’t the only way hoops fans can get in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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