NCAA Tournament 5-12 matchups are always a trendy pick for brackets. Through three 5-12 battles, No. 12 High Point is the only underdog to advance to the second round.
Will the No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers (23-12) or the No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm win in the final first-round 5-12 clash of the 2026 NCAA Tournament? According to PrizePicks Team Picks, St. John’s is a substantial 11.5-point favorite for Friday’s 7:10 p.m. ET tip-off on CBS.
Below, we’ll break down a Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s prediction on the spread for Friday, March 20’s college basketball projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
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Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
In the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, Northern Iowa won four consecutive games with a 3-1 record against the spread (ATS) as a No. 6 seed to win its first conference title since 2016.
As discussed in our CBB upset picks, the Panthers won at least one game in three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, including 2010’s memorable regional finals run. St. John’s is a tough pull, though, as the Red Storm are 16-1 outright and 11-6 ATS over their last 17 games.
Friday night will mark the first head-to-head matchup between these programs.
Get Friday's Updated NCAA Tournament Bracket, Schedule, and TV Channels
Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s Spread, Over/Under
St. John’s is favored by 11.5 points with a 1.17x payout if it wins, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Northern Iowa features a lofty 5x payout with an outright win today.
- Spread: St. John’s Red Storm -11.5
- Over/Under: 131.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Northern Iowa 5x | St. John’s 1.17x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/20/26
If you like high-scoring games, you may be out of luck for Northern Iowa-St. John’s. According to Bart Torvik, the Panthers (24th) and the Red Storm (ninth) are in the top 25 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
Furthermore, UNI allows only 62.1 points per game (100th percentile) and a 47.2% effective field goal percentage (93rd percentile), compared to St. John’s ceding 70.0 PPG (84th percentile) and a 47.4% effective field goal percentage (92nd percentile).
These are two contrasting styles, as the Panthers look to choke out opponents with the nation’s slowest adjusted tempo, leading to a measly 53.7 shots per game (94th percentile). The Red Storm play high-pressure defense by ranking in the 82nd percentile for the quickest tempos while forcing 13.8 turnovers per game (92nd percentile).
Northern Iowa G Trey Campbell (13.7 PPG) and G Max Weisrod (6.5 PPG) form an experienced backcourt as seniors, totaling only 2.0 and 0.9 turnovers per game. This translates to 9.3 turnovers per game (95th percentile) and a 13.1% turnover rate (79th percentile).
If the Panthers take care of the ball, this should aid their usual slow pace — hence the 131.5 total. In a potential low-scoring game, an 11.5-point spread could be too lofty.
Make Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s Picks on PrizePicks
Which style will control the pace tonight? St. John’s could cruise if it’s forcing its usual turnovers, but Northern Iowa is a stingy club with a snail-like tempo.
Make your Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s picks and NCAA Tournament predictions at PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
