Week 12 is here, and the NFL playoff picture is finally starting to take shape as teams either surge into contention or slip into irrelevance. Injuries are a main storyline entering the weekend.
Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, for example, is battling a hand injury and may miss this week. Detroit was dealt a major blow, as star TE Sam LaPorta underwent back surgery and will likely miss the rest of the season. In Cleveland, rookie QB Shedeur Sanders is set to make his first start after an injury to Dillion Gabriel. In Atlanta, longtime veteran QB Kirk Cousins steps back in as Michael Penix Jr. goes to IR.
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NFL Week 12 Predictions & Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks, NFL DFS
Find the top Week 12 predictions, picks, matchups, and players to target for NFL Week 12 below in the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.
Best RB Matchups to Target: Week 12
Week 12's crop is highlighted by Ravens RB Derrick Henry and Saints RB Alvin Kamara.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Jets Defense
Since Week 5, the Jets have quietly become one of the worst run defenses in football. They’re allowing 131.2 rushing yards per game (eighth-most), giving up 4.55 yards per carry, and have surrendered 400 yards after contact. This is a terrible matchup for a defense now facing the most physically punishing rushing duo in the NFL: QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry.
Henry is having a strong year despite Baltimore dealing with nonstop injuries. He ranks sixth in rushing yards (807), fifth in rushing TDs (7), and ninth in yards per attempt (4.9). He also sits seventh in explosive runs with 20 carries of 10+ yards, per Pro Football Focus, showing he still has the juice to rip off chunk plays.
Baltimore’s run game is anchored by center Tyler Linderbaum, who ranks fourth among 38 centers in PFF run-blocking grade and consistently creates the interior openings for Henry.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara vs. Falcons Defense
Since Week 5, the Falcons have collapsed against the run. They’re allowing 158.2 rushing yards per game (second-most) while yielding 4.77 yards per carry. Opposing RBs are consistently reaching the second level untouched, and Atlanta has no answer.
Alvin Kamara hasn’t had a signature season by his standards, but he’s still producing solid volume despite instability at QB. He ranks 21st in carries, 27th in rushing yards (460), and has logged 10 explosive runs.
He’s coming off one of his best rushing games of the season, posting 83 yards vs. Carolina, and now enters a matchup against a Falcons defense that’s been shredded recently.
Week 12 PrizePicks Pick: Alvin Kamara 57.5 Rushing Yards
Best WR vs. CB Matchups to Target: Week 12
Week 12's WR matchups are headlined by Ravens WR Zay Flowers and Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Jets CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Zay Flowers hasn’t had the explosive leap many expected, but the dip has almost nothing to do with him and everything to do with Baltimore losing Jackson for a big chunk of the season. Even with backup QB play and a run-centric scheme, Flowers still sits top 25 in targets, top 15 in receptions, and top 10 in receiving yards. When targeted, he delivers a 105.8 passer rating and 13.3 yards per reception.
Jets corner Jarvis Brownlee Jr. ranks 100th out of 110 CBs in coverage, per PFF. He is routinely beaten at the catch point, allowing a 110.0 passer rating and 8.4 yards per reception. This is one of a few non-elite coverage pieces in the Jets secondary.
Week 12 PrizePicks Pick: Zay Flowers 64.5 Receiving Yards
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Giants CB Deonte Banks
Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off a rare down game where Eagles CB Cooper DeJean held him in check, but his profile screams bounce-back. He ranks eighth in receiving yards (735), second in receiving TDs (8), and fourth in receptions (66). He’s also averaging 11 yards per reception and generating a 116.3 passer rating when targeted.
St. Brown now draws one of the weakest outside corners in football. Giants CB Deonte Banks, a former first-round pick, has completely unraveled. He ranks 104th out of 110 CBs in coverage, allowing a disastrous 155.2 passer rating and 13.5 yards per reception.
Banks is routinely beaten vertically and struggles to track elite route runners. St. Brown classifies as the latter.
Week 12 PrizePicks Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown 77.5 Receiving Yards
Best OL/DL Matchups to Target: Week 12
The Seahawks and Browns' defensive lines star in our Week 12 OL/DL matchups to monitor.
Seahawks DL vs. Titans OL
Seattle’s defensive line has turned into a wrecking crew. Edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence sits inside the league’s top 20 with 31 pressures, while star Leonard Williams is second among all interior linemen with 36 pressures. First-round DT Byron Murphy has erupted as well, making this one of the deepest and most disruptive fronts in the NFL.
Tennessee’s offensive line is walking into a mismatch. LT Dan Moore has surrendered 29 pressures and 8 sacks, ranking near the bottom of the league. Rookie RT JC Latham hasn't been much better, surrendering 14 pressures and 6 sacks with 7 penalties. Veteran right G Kevin Zeitler, normally a stabilizing force, is also slipping.
It's clear that this is one of the worst pass protection units in football.
Browns DL vs. Raiders OL
Cleveland’s defensive line isn’t just elite, it’s historic. Myles Garrett is having a Defensive Player of the Year-level season with 43 pressures and a league-leading 15 sacks. Inside, Maliek Collins has been a monster, boasting 23 pressures. Edge rusher Isaiah McGuire has quietly been highly efficient too, generating 14 pressures in only 150 pass-rush snaps.
Las Vegas is severely outmatched. LT Stone Forsythe has allowed 19 pressures and 4 sacks. On the opposite side, DJ Glaze has given up 27 pressures and 5 sacks with 4 penalties, consistently losing the edge. C Will Putnam has surrendered 10 pressures and 2 sacks in limited work (just 90 snaps). This Raiders line is vulnerable at every spot.
Week 12 PrizePicks Pick: Geno Smith 201.5 Pass Yards
Best QB Matchups for Week 12
Two high-flying QBs, Patriots star Drake Maye and Seahawks leader Sam Darnold, top our Week 12 QB matchups.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Bengals Defense
Since Week 5, the Bengals have fallen apart against the pass. They rank dead last in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed, per SumerSports.
Drake Maye walks into this matchup playing his best football. He nearly hit 300 yards last week against the Jets, and his overall production now places him first in the NFL in passing yards (2,836), fourth in passing TDs (20), and fifth in average depth of target (9.4). He’s pushing the ball downfield with confidence and volume.
The key liability in Cincinnati’s secondary remains CB Dax Hill, who continues to be a glaring weak point. Hill is allowing a 110.3 passer rating, has surrendered 44 receptions, and has repeatedly been targeted as a defensive soft spot.
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold vs. Titans Defense
The Titans rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed. Their coverage breakdowns are constant, and the secondary continues to hemorrhage explosive plays.
Outside CB Jalyn Amour-Davis has been a major problem, ranking 107th out of 110 corners in PFF coverage grade. He is allowing a brutal 137.6 passer rating and giving up 15.9 yards per reception. Safety Amani Hooker has also struggled on the back end, allowing a 100+ passer rating and 11.6 yards per reception.
Sam Darnold, despite his four-INT meltdown versus the Rams, is still having one of the most productive seasons of his career. He threw for 279 yards in that game and now sits eighth in the NFL in passing yards (2,541) while ranking second in average depth of target (9.9).
Darnold continues to attack downfield at one of the highest rates in the league, and Tennessee’s coverage structure is tailor-made to get burned by that.
Week 12 PrizePicks Pick: Sam Darnold 242.5 Passing Yards
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