The NFL schedule makers probably had higher expectations for their 2025 Christmas Day games. Instead, we get three NFL Christmas games with spreads of seven points or more, and four teams eliminated from playoff contention.
Regardless, football is football, and these games will still be entertaining on the holiday.
The Cowboys and Commanders are both playing for pride at 1 p.m. ET on Netflix. The Lions, also on Netflix, are fighting for their slim playoff hopes, needing to win both their remaining games, while hoping the Packers lose their final two games.
The Broncos, after being upset by the Jaguars at home in Week 16, are suddenly looking to hold onto their AFC West lead against the injury-decimated Chiefs at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video for Thursday Night Football.
We're here to make our NFL Christmas predictions for all three games, targeting the spread or over/under in every Xmas game — Cowboys vs. Commanders, Lions vs. Vikings, and Broncos vs. Chiefs. We’ll be using PrizePicks Team Picks – where you can cash in on your Christmas Day picks on over/under, spread, and winners, earn money if you’re right.
2025 NFL Christmas Games Predictions, Schedule, Where to Watch
Click on any game to go directly to our game prediction, spread, over/under, and payouts from PrizePicks Team Picks for the three Christmas games today.
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders — 1 p.m. ET, Netflix
- Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings — 4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix
- Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs — 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video (Thursday Night Football)
Cowboys vs. Commanders Over/Under, Spread for Christmas Day Game
The Cowboys opened the week as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Commanders. Since then, they have moved to 9.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
As the current favorites, the Cowboys return a 1.21x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Commanders are home underdogs with a 3.57x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 (1.96x payout)
- Over/Under: 51.5 (2x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Cowboys 1.21x | Commanders 3.57x
Team Picks payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction on Over/Under
The Cowboys vs. Commanders over/under opened the week at 49.5 and has since risen to 51.5 as of writing, which comes in as the third-highest total on the Week 17 slate, out of 16 games.
Below, we’ll give you our Cowboys vs. Commanders pick and stats for the over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks in the Christmas Day NFL game. Use PrizePicks to make NFL picks and earn money if you’re right.
- The Cowboys are an NFL-best 11-4 to the over in 2025, including 5-0 in their last five road games.
- The Commanders are 6-1-1 to the over in their last eight games vs NFC opponents.
- The over is 5-0 in the Cowboys' last five games following a straight-up loss of 14 points or more.
- The over is 4-0 in the Cowboys' last four games after allowing 250 or more passing yards in the previous game.
- The Cowboys and Commanders are tied for last in the league in expected points added (EPA) per play vs. the pass at 0.22.
- Both teams also rank in the bottom five in EPA per play vs. the rush. The Cowboys are third-worst at .08, and the Commanders are fifth-worst at .04.
- The Cowboys have the seventh-best offensive passing EPA/play at 0.08 led by QB Dak Prescott. They may be able to pick apart the Commanders' atrocious pass defense.
- The Commanders have the sixth-best offensive rushing EPA/play at .02, led by Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. They may be able to find methodical offensive success vs the Cowboys' third-worst run defense.
Lions vs. Vikings Over/Under, Spread for Christmas Day Football
The Lions opened the week as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Vikings. Since then, they have moved to 7.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
As the current favorites, the Lions return a 1.26x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Vikings are home underdogs with a 3.57x payout if they win this Christmas Day matchup, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The Lions vs. Vikings over/under opened the week at 45.5 and has since dropped to 42.5 as of writing, which comes in tied for the seventh-lowest total on the Week 17 slate, out of 16 games.
- Spread: Detroit Lions -7.5 (1.88x payout)
- Over/Under: 42.5 (1.78x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Lions 1.26x | Vikings 3.57x
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Vikings Prediction on Spread for Christmas NFL Game
Below, we’ll give you a Lions vs. Vikings pick on the spread for PrizePicks Team Picks in the Christmas Day NFL game. Use PrizePicks to make NFL picks and earn money if you’re right.
- When QB Jared Goff has played the Vikings, he is 8-1 against the spread (ATS), the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota in the last 20 years.
- When Goff and head coach Dan Campbell play inside a dome on the road together, they are 10-2 ATS, covering the spread by 5.5 points per game.
- The Vikings are 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record in 2025.
- The Vikings have allowed a 9.94% sack rate in 2025, good for third-worst in the NFL.
- In addition to that, the Vikings will be missing C Ryan Kelly (concussion) and LT Christian Darrisaw (knee).
- The Lions have the ninth-best sack percentage (7.13%).
- The Vikings lead the NFL in interception percentage by a wide margin at 4.09%, ahead of the Tua Tagovalioa-led Dolphins at 3.56%.
- The Lions have the lowest interception percentage in the league at .91%.
- In Vikings QB Max Brosmer’s last start, he threw four interceptions in a 26-0 loss at Seattle.
- Under Goff and Campbell, after the Lions rush for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game, they are 15-5 ATS in their next game, including 7-1 ATS when they face an NFC North opponent.
- The Vikings rank 18th in the league in EPA/play vs the rush at -.03.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under, Spread for Christmas Day Football
The Broncos opened the week as 13-point favorites vs. the Chiefs. Since then, they have moved to 13.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks — a gargantuan spread for Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
As the current favorites, the Broncos return a 1.08x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Chiefs are home underdogs with a 6.25x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Denver Broncos -13.5 (1.85x payout)
- Over/Under: 36.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Broncos 1.09x | Chiefs 6.25x
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction on Over/Under for Christmas NFL Game
The Broncos vs. Chiefs over/under opened the week at 36.5 and has since held firm, sitting 36.5 as of writing, which comes in as the second-lowest total on the Week 17 slate, out of 16 games.
Below, we’ll give you a Broncos vs. Chiefs pick on the over/under for PrizePicks Team Picks in the Christmas night NFL game. Use PrizePicks to make NFL picks and earn money if you’re right.
- The under is 8-0 in the Chiefs' last eight games following a loss.
- It is also 7-0 in the Chiefs' last seven games vs. the AFC.
- The average over/under tends to dip throughout the year on Thursday nights. Weeks 1-5: 46.22, Weeks 6-11: 45.40, and in Weeks 12-17: 43.57.
- The under is 6-0 in the last six Chiefs games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. This spot fits that criteria.
- The Chiefs will be trotting out third-string QB Chris Oladokun vs. a Broncos defense that ranks 11th in the league in defensive EPA/play (.05).
- Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice (concussion) and Tyquan Thornton (concussion) are both in doubt for Week 17 after having both logged DNP’s in practice on Monday and Tuesday.
- The Broncos' defense ranks first in the league in success percentage allowed at 37.47%.
- The Broncos are second in the league in sack percentage at 10.16%.
- The Chiefs may have a tough time crossing midfield on Thursday — let alone scoring — led by a QB who has never started a game above the FCS level and was a seventh-round pick.
- The Broncos’ offense ranks 19th in the NFL in success percentage at 43.41%.
Make NFL Christmas Predictions on PrizePicks
While the games may not be thrilling, with four teams out of playoff contention entirely, having NFL football on after unwrapping presents in the morning to Christmas dinner at night will surely be a welcome sight for NFL fans.
Whether it’s taking an over/under pick between two awful defenses in Cowboys vs. Commanders or backing the Lions to keep their NFL playoff hopes alive, there is no better place to make your Christmas Day NFL picks than on PrizePicks.
Pick NFL winners, spreads, and over/unders to earn real money if you’re right on PrizePicks Team Picks (now available in 30 states), or pick More or Less on player stat projections to win up to 2000x your money on Player Picks (in 45 states).
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news all season long.
