NFL Week 17 is here, but with a twist, as we have part of the unique slate chopped up into three games on Christmas Day.
The Christmas cheat sheet is your ultimate resource for the top player picks for PrizePicks NFL, matchups to target, and game insights.
Ready to lock in your NFL Week 17 predictions? Just go to the PrizePicks NFL board, pick your players, and predict if they’ll have More or Less than their projected stats to earn cash if you're right.
Let's get into this week's predictions.
NFL Christmas Day Cheat Sheet & Predictions for PrizePicks, NFL DFS
Find the top Christmas Day predictions, picks, matchups to target, and players to target in Thursday's games below in the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet, including analysis on QBs, RBs, WR vs. CB matchups, and OL vs. DL mismatches.
Best QB Predictions for Christmas Day
Here are two of the top QB vs. defense matchups for fantasy football and PrizePicks NFL this week to help you make your NFL Week 17 predictions.
Vikings QB Max Brosmer vs. Lions Defense
Since Week 11, the Detroit Lions have been a favorable matchup for opposing QBs. They rank 21st in dropback EPA, 25th in passing yards, and 29th in passing TDs. That defensive profile opens the door for a rookie like Max Brosmer to find success, even in a difficult road environment.
Detroit plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which plays directly into the strengths of Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. The Lions’ defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards allowed to outside WRs, and despite inconsistent QB play, Jefferson still sits top 15 in both receptions and receiving yards.
With that matchup on the perimeter and a pass-funnel of a Lions defense waiting, this sets up as a potential buy-low spot for Brosmer.
Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Chiefs Defense
Bo Nix is quietly putting together one of the more productive seasons among young QBs. He ranks eighth in the NFL with 24 passing TDs and is sixth in passing yards with 3,608 while also ranking second in pass attempts. That highlights just how aggressive Denver has been through the air.
Kansas City, meanwhile, enters this matchup in a rough spot. The Chiefs are out of playoff contention, sitting at 6–9, and are already down to their third QB. Defensively, they’re dealing with a battered secondary.
Among those who are healthy, S Chamarri Conner ranks 91st out of 98 safeties in coverage (via Pro Football Focus) and is allowing an ugly 134.4 passer rating when targeted. Slot CB Kevin Knowles, a 2025 undrafted free agent, could be heavily tested.
These signs hint at another high-volume, high-upside passing spot for Nix.
Week 17 Prediction for PrizePicks: Bo Nix – 230.5 Passing Yards
Best RB Predictions for Christmas Day
Here are two of the top RB vs. defense matchups to target for fantasy football and PrizePicks NFL this week to help you make your Christmas Day predictions.
Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. vs. Cowboys Defense
The Dallas Cowboys’ run defense has completely fallen apart, and it starts at LB. Kenneth Murray Jr. ranks 91st out of 91 linebackers on PFF at stopping the run. Rookie Shemar James, a fifth-round pick out of Florida, ranks 89th. Even longtime interior anchor Kenny Clark has declined, sitting 77th out of 120 interior defensive linemen against the run.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. has quietly taken over as Washington’s RB1. Over his last four games, he is averaging 12 rushing attempts, with a season-high 15 carries coming in his most recent outing against Philadelphia. Dallas ranks 31st NFL in rushing TDs allowed and 29th in yards per carry.
Rodriguez ranks fifth in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (3.57) and 21st in yards per carry (4.5), producing 435 rushing yards and five TDs.
Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. Commanders Defense
Washington’s run defense has been just as problematic. The Commanders rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game and 23rd in rushing TDs allowed. Up front, DT Javon Kinlaw ranks 86th out of 128 interior defensive linemen in PFF run defense grade, while DT Daron Payne sits 80th. At LB, Frankie Luvu ranks 62nd.
Those issues play directly into the hands of Javonte Williams, who has had a breakout season since signing with Dallas. Williams ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing TDs (10), sixth in rushing yards (1,147), and 12th in yards per attempt (4.8).
With Dallas leaning heavily on the ground game, Williams is consistently creating chunk gains and finishing drives. This matchup against a soft Commanders front gives him another possible path to production.
Week 17 Prediction for PrizePicks: Javonte Williams – 75.5 Rushing Yards
Best WR vs. CB Matchups for Christmas Day
Here are two of the top WR vs. CB matchups to target for fantasy football and PrizePicks NFL this week to help you make your Christmas Day predictions.
Cowboys CB Shevon Revel vs. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
Dallas rookie CB Shevon Revel, a third-round pick out of ECU, has had a brutal introduction to the NFL. He currently ranks 111th out of 111 qualifying CBs in coverage grade and has been relentlessly targeted. When thrown at, Revel is allowing a 120.6 passer rating along with 12.6 yards per reception.
On the other side, WR Terry McLaurin has been productive despite battling injuries early on. Since returning, he has seen 49 targets, converting them into 29 receptions for nearly 500 yards and three TDs. He’s averaging 15.9 yards per reception (fifth-best) and owns a strong 102.6 passer rating when targeted.
Against a corner who has struggled this badly, McLaurin could be the focal point of Washington’s passing attack.
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy Jr.
Minnesota slot CB Byron Murphy Jr. has had a down season, allowing a 102.7 passer rating and 11 yards per reception when targeted. He’s also surrendered 34 receptions, showing consistent difficulty limiting volume receivers out of the slot. That’s a major concern against WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who continues to dominate from the slot.
St. Brown ranks fourth in the NFL in receptions (98), fifth in yards (1,194), and second in TDs (11). When targeted, he provides QB Jared Goff with an elite 118.7 passer rating and 12.2 yards per catch. With Detroit leaning heavily on St. Brown in high-leverage situations, this matchup could favor him.
Week 17 Prediction for PrizePicks: Amon-Ra St. Brown – 5.5 Receptions
Best OL vs. DL Matchups for Christmas Day
Here are two of the top OL vs. DL matchups to target for fantasy football and PrizePicks NFL this week to help you make your Christmas Day predictions.
Broncos DL vs. Chiefs OL
The Chiefs’ offensive line is both injured and overwhelmed, creating a dangerous setup against Denver’s pass rush. Projected LT Esa Pola, a 2025 undrafted free agent, has already surrendered 9 pressures and a sack. On the opposite side, RT Jaylon Moore has allowed 27 pressures and 3 sacks. LG Kingsley Suamataia has struggled badly as well, giving up 31 pressures and 3 sacks.
All of this pressure is magnified by the fact that Kansas City will be starting QB Chris Oladokun under center. That’s a nightmare matchup against a Denver front that has been dominant all season.
Nik Bonitto has been one of the most disruptive edge rushers in football, recording 64 pressures and 15 sacks, which ranks second leaguewide. Jonathan Cooper adds another relentless presence off the edge with 48 pressures and 10 sacks, while interior anchor D.J. Jones continues to collapse pockets from the middle with 19 pressures and 3 sacks.
This Broncos defensive line is built to exploit exactly the type of protection issues Kansas City is dealing with.
Cowboys DL vs. Commanders OL
Dallas’ defensive line has quietly rounded into form during the second half of the season and now looks like one of the more complete units in the league.
Interior force Kenny Clark has been dominant up the middle, posting 43 pressures along with 4 sacks. Veteran Jadeveon Clowney has provided consistent edge disruption with 29 pressures and 4 sacks, while DT Quinnen Williams has been a wrecking ball with with 48 pressures and 3 sacks. Rookie DE Donovan Ezeiruaku has also flashed (34 pressures and 2 sacks).
Washington’s offensive line is in a rough spot trying to deal with that group. Starting G Sam Cosmi has been placed on IR, and franchise LT Laremy Tunsil is still dealing with an injury. That leaves shaky replacements across the line.
OT Andrew Wylie, now filling in, has allowed 6 pressures. Fellow OT Josh Conerly Jr. has been a major liability, surrendering 41 pressures and 7 sacks with a staggering 13 penalties. On the interior, Chris Paul has also struggled, giving up 15 pressures.
Against a Cowboys front peaking at the right time, this Commanders offensive line could be set up for a long day.
Week 17 Prediction for PrizePicks: Josh Johnson – 183.5 Passing Yards
Make NFL Christmas Day Predictions on PrizePicks
The 2025 NFL season marches another week closer to the playoffs, as we enter Week 17 on Christmas Day.
This week brings us yet another opportunity to earn real money on PrizePicks with NFL predictions. Use this NFL Cheat Sheet and predictions to sharpen your takes and build out your winning picks for the opening of the Week 17 slate.
PrizePicks is the simplest way to make your NFL predictions and earn cash rewards if you're right. Pull up the PrizePicks NFL board, pick at least two players, predict More or Less on their projections, then follow along to see if your picks are right.
Keep it dialed in on the Playbook for more NFL picks, predictions, and news all season long.
