Two North Carolina colleges go head-to-head in Winston-Salem in the Thursday college football showcase game, as NC State vs. Wake Forest kicks offWeek 3 of the college football season.
The energy inside Truist Field should be buzzing, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
This is the 119th meeting between the in-state rivals, and it’s a critical early ACC clash between two undefeated teams trying to prove themselves in 2025.
Below, we’ll break down our NC State vs. Wake Forest prediction and PrizePicks player picks for Thursday’s matchup under the lights.
This rivalry game has all the ingredients for drama: two first-year starting quarterbacks, physical defenses, and a short-week primetime spotlight that has historically produced chaos in the ACC.
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NC State vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Preview for Sept. 11
Eight of the last 12 games between these two ACC programs have been decided by one possession, and the stakes are high with both squads sitting at 2–0.
Though both are undefeated, their paths have looked different.
NC State has been tested in two one-score wins, leaning on sophomore QB CJ Bailey and RB Hollywood Smothers to deliver late. Wake Forest, meanwhile, rolled through Kennesaw State and Western Carolina, but now faces its first Power Five opponent under new head coach Jake Dickert.
With explosive running backs on both sides and defenses showing vulnerability to big plays, Thursday night’s matchup sets the stage for an early-season measuring stick inside the ACC.
NC State Preview
The Wolfpack offense has made noticeable strides behind Bailey, who has accounted for over 500 passing yards, two passing TDs, and three rushing scores through two weeks.
Under new OC Kurt Roper, Bailey has pushed the ball downfield while using his legs to extend drives, ranking fifth in adjusted EPA, per Game on Paper.
WRs Teddy Hoffmann and Wesley Grimes (a Wake Forest transfer) have emerged as reliable targets, while TE Justin Joly — who leads the team in targets — could see an expanded role against a Demon Deacons defense still largely untested.
On the ground, Smothers has been electric. He’s second in the ACC in rushing yards (213) and tied for first in runs of 10+ yards (6), and 13th in yards after contact (5.18) among RBs with at least 20 carries, per PFF. His burst has provided balance and consistency to the offense, keeping defenses honest.
Defensively, NC State has serious questions, ranking 45th in adjusted EPA per play, and 113th in yards per play allowed (6.54). Virginia gashed them for 257 rushing yards last week, including multiple explosive runs.
Poor second-level tackling (10 missed tackles in two games) has left the Pack vulnerable. On a short week, fixing those issues against Demond Claiborne, one of the ACC’s top rushers, will be no easy task.
Wake Forest
Wake’s offense begins and ends with Claiborne. After exiting Week 1 with an injury, he returned in Week 2 to torch Western Carolina for 193 yards and 3 TDs on just 10 carries. Paired with QB Robby Ashford, who added a 41-yard rushing TD of his own, Wake’s ground attack is clearly its identity under Dickert.
The question is whether Wake can sustain that success against higher-level competition. When Claiborne missed time, the offense stalled completely, exposing a lack of proven second options.
Against NC State, he’ll face a defense fresh off being gashed on the ground, making this matchup a key pivot point.
Defensively, the Demon Deacons have allowed just 19 total points in two games, allowing just 355 yards per play, but both came against non-Power Five opponents. They showed pass-rush flashes, but also gave up chunk plays to receivers. Against Bailey and NC State’s balanced offense, Wake’s secondary and linebackers will finally face a real stress test.
NC State vs. Wake Forest Picks – Sept. 11
This ACC rivalry between NC State and Wake Forest brings a load of picks on the PrizePicks CFB board for Thursday night, with opportunities on both sides of the ball.
Here are three player picks to target before the 7:30 p.m. ET lock.
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NC State QB CJ Bailey Projection: 242.5 Passing Yards
Bailey has averaged over 250 yards across his first two games and is thriving under Roper’s aggressive play-calling. Wake’s secondary hasn’t faced a true test yet, and Bailey’s dual-threat ability could open up chunk plays downfield.
Last year, Wake Forest ranked 123rd out of 134 FBS teams in EPA per dropback, giving up 6.99 yards per.
Bailey could find success in targeting Hoffmann and Grimes often against Wake’s corners.
Wake Forest RB Demond Claiborne Projection: 86.5 Rushing Yards
Claiborne looked unstoppable last week, ripping off three long runs and finishing with 193 yards. But that was easy work vs. an FCS defense.
But NC State hasn't shown to be much better. This defense that just gave up 257 on the ground to Virginia. Wake’s offense is designed to feed Claiborne volume; he had 18+ carries in each of the last eight games last year, with three of those games resulting in more than 110+ rushing yards.
Claiborne should have every opportunity to have another big night vs. an underwhelming NC State defense.
NC State RB Hollywood Smothers Projection: 93.5 Rush Yards
After closing out last year with a 139-yard explosion in the Military Bowl, Hollywood Smothers has been the Wolfpack’s most consistent backfield option, with three TDs in two games already this season. Smothers ranks second in the ACC in rushing yards and leads in explosive runs.
So far, Smothers has been a key part of the offense, averaging 19.5 rushes per game, playing 52 of the total 69 running back snaps, per PFF.
He'll face Wake front that hasn’t faced Power Five competition yet and ranked 98th in yards per rush allowed in 2024 (5.43) and 117th in rush success rate (45.4%).
Make NC State vs. Wake Forest Picks on PrizePicks
Thursday night brings us a critical early-season ACC battle as NC State travels to Winston-Salem to face Wake Forest on ESPN tonight. With two experienced coaches, playmaking quarterbacks, and contrasting styles of offense, this matchup has plenty of intrigue.
Ahead of the NC State vs. Wake Forest kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET, it's time to lock in your CFB picks on PrizePicks to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions when you're right.
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