Mississippi State vs. Florida Prediction, Saturday CFB Picks

Mississippi State and Florida, two SEC teams who both need a win to stay out of the conference cellar, meet in Gainesville on Saturday. With a combined 1-4 record in SEC play this season, the teams square off for the second straight season, but only the third time in the last 15 seasons. The game from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field in Gainesville is set for 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

QB Blake Shapen leads the way for the 4-2 Bulldogs, while his counterpart, DJ Lagway, continues his up-and-down campaign for Florida.

We'll give you our Saturday Mississippi State vs. Florida prediction and CFB picks for PrizePicks, including Shapen and Lagway player picks for PrizePicks real money college football game.

Mississippi State vs. Florida Prediction, Preview for Week 8

Mississippi State and Florida look to avoid the basement of the SEC on Saturday afternoon in Gainesville, Florida. The Gators won last year’s meeting, 45-28, in Starkville, MS, and have taken four of the last five games in the series.  

The Bulldogs are looking for their first SEC win of the season, while Florida aims to even their record up at 2-2. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs began their season with four straight wins, including victories at Southern Miss, and at home vs. 12th-ranked Arizona State, a team that made the College Football Playoff last season. 

After sweeping their non-conference schedule, the Bulldogs lost consecutive games to ranked SEC opponents in 15th-ranked Tennessee and sixth-ranked Texas A&M. Mississippi State allowed only 11.75 points in their four non-conference wins, but gave up 72 points in their two SEC losses. For the season, the Bulldogs rank 38th in scoring defense, 46th in yards allowed, 25th in pass defense, and 101st of 134 FBS teams in rush defense, allowing 162.7 rush yards per game. 

The offense has been balanced so far this season, ranking 43rd in rushing at 183.8 yards per game and 89th in passing at 211.7 yards per game, while their rushing success rate is 55.2%, tops in the country. The big bugaboo for the Bulldogs has been penalties, where they rank 130th, averaging 77 penalty yards per game.

Florida Gators Preview

After opening the season with a 55-0 beatdown of Long Island, Florida lost at home on a walk-off FG to South Florida, then 20-10 at third-ranked LSU, before falling to fourth-ranked Miami 26-7. They shocked the college football world with a 29-21 win over ninth-ranked Texas before falling to fifth-ranked Texas A&M last week, 34-17. Florida completed the gauntlet of four consecutive top-10 opponents at 1-3, putting head coach Billy Napier firmly back on the hotseat, with a 21-23 career record as the head man in Gainesville. 

All four losses this season have come to teams currently projected to make the College Football Playoff and they still have three more top-11 teams left on their schedule in Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. 

Florida’s offense enters the week 103rd of 136 FBS teams in scoring at 22.3 points per game. They rank 98th in total offensive yards, 107th in rushing offense, and 69th in passing offense. 

On the other side, Florida’s defense has kept them in games vs. the top-10 opponents. Florida is 38th in scoring defense, allowing 19.8 points per game, 33rd in yards allowed, and 34th in rush defense. 

Mississippi State vs. Florida Picks for PrizePicks

Here are the player picks to target in PrizePicks real money college football game and in CFB DFS, including Blake Shapen and DJ Lagway.

Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen Projection: 197.5 passing yards 

• Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen has not reached 200-yards passing since throwing for 279 in the season opener vs. Arizona State. 
• The most yards Shapen has thrown for since the opener is 175 yards in the OT loss to Tennessee three weeks ago. 
• The transfer from Baylor hit 235+ yards in three of the four games he played in 2024 with Mississippi State and seven of eight games with Baylor in 2023. 
• Shapen’s 149.4 passer rating is ranked 41st among FBS QBs and eighth in the SEC. 

Florida QB DJ Lagway Projection: 245.5 passing yards

• After throwing for a career-low (in a start) 61 yards in the loss to Miami, Florida QB DJ Lagway has rebounded with 245 and 298 passing yards in his last two outings. 
• Lagway tossed 3 TDs in the first start of the season before totalling 2 passing TDs over the next three games. In his last two outings, Lagway has tossed 2 TDs each. 
• For the season, the Florida starter is averaging 9.86 passing yards per completion, ranked 109th in the nation.
• Lagway’s 129.9 passer rating is ranked 85th among FBS QBs and 14th among 16 qualified SEC QBs. 

Florida RB Jadan Baugh: 82.5 rushing yards

• Florida RB Jadan Baugh has 45+ rushing yards in all six games this season and 65+ rushing in 10 of his last 13 dating back to last season.
• Baugh rushed for a career-high 107 yards two weeks ago in Florida’s upset win over ninth-ranked Texas. He now has three 100+ yard games in his career. 
• The 6'1", 231-pounder's 465 rushing yards ranks seventh in the SEC, behind Mississippi State RB Fluff Bothwell, who will be on the other side of the field. 

Make CFB Picks on PrizePicks

Mississippi State and Florida, two SEC teams in major need of a W, meet up in Gainesville on Saturday afternoon. 

Florida’s DJ Lagway looks for his third consecutive good passing game after a rocky start to the season. The Bulldogs try to get back on to their winning ways after starting 0-2 in the SEC.

No matter what your take on this Saturday afternoon’s matchup is, you can win real money with your Mississippi State vs. Florida predictions on PrizePicks while you watch.

Simply pick your players — from Shapen to Lagway — predict More or Less on their projected stats, and win cash when you're right. It's that easy.

Check out the Playbook throughout the 2025 college season for more college football picks and predictions from our team of experts